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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Cable Wars in the Deep

Updated: Feb 27, 2025

As tensions simmer in the Taiwan Strait yet again, the battle for undersea cables signals a new front in the geopolitical brinkmanship between China and Taiwan.

Taiwan

In the contest for Taiwan’s future, China has mastered the art of subtle yet insidious pressure. From balloon overflights to sand dredging, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has perfected aggressive ‘grey zone’ tactics. The latest manifestation of this strategy has surfaced, quite literally, in the waters of the Taiwan Strait, where repeated damage to undersea communication cables has heightened fears of Chinese sabotage.


The Taiwan Straits has long been a geopolitical powder keg with its 110-mile breadth separating a self-governing democracy from an authoritarian giant that claims it as its own. Taiwan’s economic and strategic vitality hinges on a web of undersea cables connecting it to the world. Disrupting these cables is a calculated form of hybrid warfare to test Taiwan’s resilience.


The latest episode unfolded this week when Taiwan’s coast guard intercepted a Togolese-flagged cargo ship after a key undersea cable linking the main island to the Penghu archipelago was mysteriously severed. The ship, reportedly financed by China and staffed exclusively by Chinese nationals, had dropped anchor alarmingly close to the cable before communications were cut. Though Beijing dismissed Taiwan’s claims as political manipulation, Taipei pointed to a broader pattern of similar disruptions in recent years.


In early 2023, two cables near Taiwan’s Matsu Islands, critical links between the island and its outposts, were severed within a week. Taiwanese officials identified Chinese vessels as the culprits but stopped short of officially blaming Beijing. More recently, a China-owned, Cameroon-registered vessel was suspected of damaging another cable leading to the United States. Taiwan now maintains a watchlist of over 50 ships believed to be operating under “flags of convenience” - an obfuscation tactic allowing Chinese firms to avoid direct association with the CCP while operating in contested waters.


China’s denials are predictable, but follow a pattern of maritime intimidation. Beijing’s ‘grey zone’ operations, which fall below the threshold of conventional military aggression, extend beyond undersea sabotage. Chinese coast guard patrols near Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands (territory controlled by Taipei but located perilously close to China’s Fujian province) have intensified. These so-called ‘law enforcement’ operations, occurring four times a month on average, are seen by Taiwan as deliberate harassment aimed at undermining its sovereignty.


The cable disruptions have also drawn uncomfortable parallels to events in the Baltic Sea. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, several undersea cables and gas pipelines were mysteriously damaged, with Moscow emerging as the prime suspect. Like Taiwan, NATO members feared these incidents were trial runs for more aggressive hybrid warfare tactics.


Why does China care so much about Taiwan’s undersea cables? The answer lies in Beijing’s long-term strategy. By interfering with communications infrastructure, China signals its ability to sever Taiwan’s lifeline in the event of a conflict. The cables are crucial not just for internet access but also for financial markets, military coordination, and government communications. In a full-scale blockade scenario - one of Beijing’s most likely invasion strategies - Taiwan’s isolation would begin with the snipping of these fiber-optic arteries.


Taipei is responding with vigilance. The government has ramped up patrols, fortified its monitoring of suspect vessels and pushed for greater international awareness. Yet, as tensions rise, so does the risk of miscalculation.


Undersea cables have long been a battleground in modern geopolitics. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in deep-sea espionage, tapping each other’s communication lines. Today, a new version of that contest is playing out in the Taiwan Strait. The difference now is that China’s goal is not merely surveillance but disruption, coercion and ultimately, dominance.


If Beijing is testing the limits of what it can get away with, Taiwan’s response will set a precedent. The next phase of the island’s struggle for sovereignty may not be fought in the air or on land, but the murky depths of the sea.

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