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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

California Wildfires: A full-blown crisis

Updated: Jan 21, 2025

California Wildfires

The devastating wildfires have definitely given the Los Angeles firefighters a window to breathe before they pull up their socks again to step up preparedness for another round of deadly wildfires that the fire department has warned of in days to come. Santa Ana Winds are expected to strengthen soon and close to 1,70,000 people are still under evacuation notices. It’s the deadliest fire in the American history. Los Angeles has been the epicenter of this devastation. Los Angeles is the worst affected. Reports claim that the fires have so far claimed at least 24 lives in LA alone, devastating entire neighborhoods that still lie in the form of debris. Up to 12,00 buildings have been destroyed. Residents who fled the sites came back to see their houses completely torched. The fires have burned close to 40,000 acres of land. LA is home to a costly neighbourhood making the devastation an expensive one. Reports suggest that the overall losses have crossed approximately 250 billion dollars. The richest and the best equipped country of the world like is not being able to contain a wildfire is extremely worrisome. Media reports said 14,000 firefighters, 84 aircraft and 1,354 fire engines did not seem enough to control the situation.


It all started on January 7, when The Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire both broke out and grew to more than 23,000 and 14,000 acres. Several smaller fires—including the Hurst Fire and Auto Fire were also alive, which are now contained. The fires were fueled by low humidity, dry conditions and strong winds. Experts pointed out that the wet weather that was followed by dry winter season worsened the situation. 2022-23 brought in usually cold and wet winters to California leading to excessive growth of trees and shrubs in California. 2024 brought exceptionally dry weather to southern California. The excessive vegetation had all dried up by then. However, the question remains if the wild fire could have been better managed. While drought, climate change and water crisis were the key reasons behind the wildfire, here are a few factors that made it difficult to control the situation.


Artificial intelligence uses gallons of water

How does Artificial intelligence work? Imagine you type a prompt to get your answers, the prompt is turned into a code that flows through a network of servers that run thousands of complex calculations and finally the best possible response is produced. The servers generate lots of heat. Data centres rely on cooling systems to prevent overheating. Cooling towers use vast amounts of water. Experts pointed out that a 500-word article drinks up to 2 bottles of water roughly. Experts believe that rising usage of Artificial intelligence contributed to the water scarcity. Building more AI data centres uses up gallons of water.


Thousands lose insurance cover ahead of fire

Losing a home to a wildfire without insurance is life shattering. In what seems to be an unbelievable coincidence, just a few months ago, thousands of LA residents had their home insurances cancelled. Palisades is an expensive neighbourhood that got 1600 insurance covers dropped ahead of the wildfire. LA Times reported, those who did not drop the policies, increased the rates to exorbitant limits. With Climate change increasing the risk of wildfire, insurance companies reportedly forecasted the situation ahead and decided to drop the policies. Experts pointed out that the government must have worked on risk-sharing mechanisms to avoid this.


Deliberate arson related arrests

Another theory that is widely being discussed is the possible misuse of the situation by anti-social elements. As per an NBC report, investigators are probing this theory not ruling out arson as the cause of either of the major fires. The theory drew public attention after a spate of arson-related arrests, including one arrest of a man who was allegedly seen lighting a fire near the smaller Kenneth Fire last week.


California has not yet reached the stage of calculating the economic aftermath of the wildfires, because the state is still coping with the losses. The New York Times reported, “Estimating the likely economic losses is tricky at this stage. The weather data company AccuWeather has offered a figure of $250 billion to $275 billion, though a Goldman Sachs report said it found the estimate high.”


Meanwhile, the Hollywood festivities have definitely been badly hit with the wildfires turning Hollywood from a land of glamour to the land of devastation. Those who lost their homes were mostly the rich. celebrities like Paris Hilton, Mandy Moore, Leighton Meester and husband Adam Brody too lost their multi-million-dollar properties. Social media is buzzing with reactions coming in from the victims. Taking to her instagram page Mandy Moote wrote, “My children's school is gone. Our favorite restaurants, leveled. So many friends and loved ones have lost everything too. Our community is broken.”

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