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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain...

Chaos Diplomacy

Donald Trump has always understood one thing better than most modern politicians that markets respond to perception. In the grinding drama over Iran, the American president appears to have weaponised uncertainty itself. One day he hints at a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran and signals the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which causes investors to breathe a sigh of relief. However, hours later, he reverses course by declaring there is “no rush” for a deal and that restrictions will remain until Iran bends fully to American conditions. The markets wobble again Trump’s defenders may argue that unpredictability is a negotiating tactic. Henry Kissinger once cultivated strategic ambiguity during the Cold War. Richard Nixon perfected the so-called ‘madman theory’ to keep adversaries guessing. Yet Trump’s oscillations differ in both scale and intent. In recent weeks, analysts and ethics experts in the United States have raised uncomfortable questions about whether political messaging is increasingly shaping market volatility in ways that benefit insiders, speculators and politically connected traders. When geopolitical brinkmanship begins to resemble a financial instrument, public trust in democratic institutions erodes. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz. A closure or blockade affects fuel prices in Mumbai as much as manufacturing costs in Shanghai or inflation in Berlin. Trump’s repeated shifts between escalation and reconciliation have had grave implications for India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. Any prolonged instability in Hormuz translates directly into higher import bills, inflationary pressures and stress on the rupee while ratcheting prices of essentials. India has spent years carefully balancing its ties between Iran, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. Tehran remains important for connectivity projects such as Chabahar Port and for India’s access to Central Asia. But allies and adversaries alike are forced into a perpetual state of recalibration because American policy itself appears unstable. Trump’s Iran manoeuvring reflects a dangerous transformation in global politics, which is the merger of geopolitics with spectacle capitalism. International crises are increasingly consumed like market-moving entertainment. This may generate short-term leverage for him or even produce tactical victories at the negotiating table. Iran, under immense economic strain, reportedly agreeing in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile is no small development. Yet diplomacy built on volatility carries long-term costs and lead to the weakening of institutions. Markets become addicted to chaos and chaos, once normalised, rarely remains controllable. The world’s largest economy cannot afford to conduct foreign policy like a reality television script, with cliffhangers designed to manipulate sentiment every news cycle. Great powers are supposed to provide stability, not amplify uncertainty for strategic theatrics. Trump may believe that time is on America’s side. But for an anxious global economy already strained by wars, inflation and fragmentation, time spent trapped in manufactured uncertainty is becoming increasingly expensive.

Call for Women’s Safety

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Call for Women’s Safety

One week after the Badlapur protest over the sexual abuse of two minor girls, tension persists. Senior police officer Aarti Singh is investigating, with new information emerging daily. Meanwhile, protest-related arrests are reigniting anger.

The police used the protest photos to arrest people at their offices and homes. Ten to twelve bank employees who happened to be at Badlapur station during the protests were arrested. In another incident, a taxi driver who had come to drop off a passenger was also arrested. Police arrested a bank employee for allegedly commenting on the sexual harassment case and around 800 people. Many of these people were not involved in stone-pelting or protesting; they were simply bystanders.

The bank employees arrested on Saturday were only presented in court on Monday, violating their rights. Police failed to present them within 24 hours as required, increasing discontent in Badlapur.

The Constitution guarantees freedom of expression for all. Protesting in a democracy, and speaking out against injustice is part of this freedom of expression. If the police arrest people for reacting to injustice, it would be a violation of their freedom of expression under Article 19(1)(a)(b) of the Constitution, which guarantees freedom of speech and expression; and peaceful assembly without arms.

While the government can impose restrictions, it appears to have curtailed freedom of expression and the right to protest in this case.

For the first time in Maharashtra’s history, people have spontaneously protested for nearly 10 hours against sexual harassment. The police’s slow response contributed to the protest, and if they had acted promptly, the protest might not have occurred. Both the police and Badlapur residents share responsibility for the unrest.

The POCSO Act mandates action against delays, yet no case has been filed against the police for their delay, suggesting government support for the police and suppression of protest voices. This undermines democracy and may lead to electoral backlash in the upcoming assembly elections.

Chief Minister, please address the widespread anger and acknowledge the ongoing safety issues for women in Maharashtra. Sexual abuse of minors continues in various institutions. Implement the Supreme Court’s Vishakha guidelines in schools and workplaces. Last year’s suppression of a woman officer’s molestation case highlights systemic injustice.

Chief Minister, while the “Ladki Bahin” scheme is a positive step, a “Safe Sister” scheme is also needed. Police stations lack women officers to address complaints, and women often face the system alone. Take decisive action to ensure women can move freely without fear at all times in Maharashtra.

The physical wounds of the two girls will heal, but their psychological scars will persist. The “Manodhairya” scheme alone cannot compensate for these injuries. Work to create a situation where such schemes are unnecessary. Set a three-month deadline for fast-track case disposal and ensure severe punishment for the accused. The “Ladaki Bahin” Scheme will only be effective if women can live with dignity.

Chief Minister, to achieve this, you must have control over the administration and the police. Just as Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj used to cut off the hands and feet of those who tortured women in his state, those who committed such crimes in Maharashtra must be stopped. If women continue to face such atrocities, they may be forced to take matters into their own hands.

(The writer is a practicing lawyer. Views personal.)

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