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By:

Rajendra Joshi

3 December 2024 at 9:20:26 am

The Warning Beyond NEET

The Jantar Mantar protests exposed the widening gap between education, employment and growth. The month-long protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar may have formally ended, but the political and economic questions it raised will linger. Triggered by the NEET paper leak, the movement became a major expression of youth discontent. What began as a demand for a fair examination system became a broader indictment of an economic model that promises opportunity but increasingly fails to deliver...

The Warning Beyond NEET

The Jantar Mantar protests exposed the widening gap between education, employment and growth. The month-long protest at Delhi's Jantar Mantar may have formally ended, but the political and economic questions it raised will linger. Triggered by the NEET paper leak, the movement became a major expression of youth discontent. What began as a demand for a fair examination system became a broader indictment of an economic model that promises opportunity but increasingly fails to deliver employment. The government initially treated the protests as a law-and-order issue. That changed when the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological fountainhead of the ruling establishment, publicly criticised police action and expressed solidarity with the students. The subsequent resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, withdrawal of criminal cases and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's endorsement of the integrity and aspirations of India's Gen Z transformed the political narrative. The issue had moved beyond examination reform to whether India's development model is serving its young citizens. The NEET paper leak was merely the spark. The fuel had accumulated through rising educated unemployment, declining confidence in public institutions and growing frustration among millions of young Indians. Education is increasingly seen as an uncertain investment rather than a guaranteed pathway to opportunity. Every examination scandal reinforces the perception that merit alone is insufficient, while recruitment delays deepen the belief that the system is failing those who have done everything expected of them. India has celebrated its demographic dividend for nearly two decades, projecting its young workforce as its greatest competitive advantage. But demographic dividends are never automatic. They generate prosperity only when education is matched by employment, productivity and rising incomes. Otherwise, they become demographic liabilities that breed frustration rather than growth. The evidence suggests India is approaching that inflection point. GDP has expanded impressively over the past two decades, yet employment has failed to keep pace. Employment elasticity has weakened sharply. During the 1980s, every percentage point of GDP growth generated roughly half a percentage point increase in employment. Today the ratio is estimated at about 0.16, among the lowest for major emerging economies. Growth continues; jobs do not. This disconnect reflects India's growth strategy. Public policy has increasingly favoured capital-intensive industries through subsidies, tax incentives and investment support. Such sectors contribute to output and productivity but generate relatively fewer jobs. Agriculture continues to suffer from incomplete reforms and low productivity. Manufacturing has not expanded fast enough to absorb new workers, while artificial intelligence and automation are reducing opportunities in occupations once regarded as gateways to middle-class prosperity. India thus faces a paradox: it is producing more graduates while creating fewer opportunities to absorb them. The comparison with Asia is instructive. Vietnam and Bangladesh have pursued manufacturing-led growth that has generated substantially higher employment relative to economic expansion. Vietnam's employment-to-population ratio is estimated at nearly three-fourths, compared with about one-half in India. Vietnam has also moved into the upper-middle-income category, while India remains a lower-middle-income economy. These comparisons do not diminish India's achievements. They highlight the urgency of correcting structural weaknesses before they become politically destabilising. History demonstrates the risks of prolonged youth unemployment. The Arab Spring showed how educated but unemployed youth can transform political landscapes. More recently, political instability in Bangladesh and Nepal has reflected frustration among younger populations facing shrinking opportunities. India's democratic institutions are stronger, and its circumstances are different. Yet no democracy can indefinitely ignore the aspirations of its largest demographic group. The significance of Jantar Mantar lies here. India's Gen Z is organised, digitally connected and politically conscious. Social media transformed local grievances into a national movement within days, while traditional political parties largely responded after the sentiment had acquired independent momentum. The RSS intervention further complicated the government's challenge. Once protesting students found resonance within the ideological ecosystem closest to the ruling establishment, the issue ceased to be a partisan confrontation. It became an internal warning that India's youth expect credible institutions, transparent examinations and, above all, meaningful employment. The Centre's examination reforms are necessary but insufficient. Restoring the credibility of competitive examinations addresses only one symptom. The larger challenge is to redesign India's growth strategy around employment. Labour-intensive manufacturing, support for small and medium enterprises, investment in skills, higher-education reform and greater attention to employment outcomes must become central to economic planning. The Jantar Mantar agitation should not be remembered simply as the NEET protests. It marked a moment when India's youngest generation questioned the assumptions underlying the country's development model. Governments can manage protests and reform examinations. But unless economic growth translates into broad-based employment, similar movements will return. India's demographic dividend remains its greatest opportunity. It could equally become its greatest challenge. The warning has been delivered. The question is whether policymakers are prepared to listen.

Can Pakistan Protect Its People and Foreign Workers?

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

The Duki massacre shocked the country with its brutality. The miners from the Pakhtun ethnic community and Afghan nationals were reportedly killed when terrorists launched rockets and grenades into the mine. This kind of ethnic dimension further complicates the security situation in Balochistan, a province already grappling with separatist insurgency and religious militancy. While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack yet, the tragedy highlights the vulnerability of labourers working in one of Pakistan’s most dangerous regions.


Earlier in the week, the killing of Chinese nationals who were working on infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) frustrated Beijing, which is growing increasingly concerned over the safety of its citizens. Initial investigations suggest that this attack might have involved the assistance of a foreign intelligence agency, potentially to destabilise Pakistan’s relationship with China. For Pakistan, China is not just a key economic partner but also a critical player in its strategic and diplomatic landscape. These attacks have raised questions about whether the country can protect its citizens and foreign nationals.


Balochistan has long been a battleground for Baloch separatists and religious extremists. The province’s porous borders with Afghanistan and Iran make it difficult for security forces to control the movement of militants. Separatist insurgents in the region have historically targeted migrant labourers from Punjab, but the attack on the miners in Duki indicates that the province’s security situation is deteriorating.


The timing of these attacks is particularly concerning. Pakistan is on the verge of hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, a major diplomatic event that will bring together regional dignitaries in Islamabad. The attacks seem deliberately timed to project an image of instability and insecurity, potentially discouraging foreign dignitaries and investors from attending the summit or making investments in Pakistan. Given that Pakistan is facing a significant economic crisis with soaring inflation and a growing balance-of-payments issue, attracting foreign investment is critical to stabilising the economy.


Hostile foreign actors may be involved in these attacks. Pakistan has often accused India of supporting Baloch separatists to destabilise the country, particularly in Balochistan. Though unproven, covert operations between the two nations have a long history, and the timing of the Duki massacre and the attack on Chinese engineers hints at external involvement. Whether these attacks are coordinated by foreign forces or driven by local militancy, the impact on Pakistan’s international standing is significant.


While it is important to bring the perpetrators of these attacks to justice, this alone will not be enough to address the broader security crisis facing the country. Pakistan needs a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that addresses the root causes of violence and dismantles the networks that enable terrorists to operate. The state’s Azm-i-Istehkam campaign aims to restore stability by targeting terrorists, though its steps remain unclear. The government must provide more transparency and regular updates on progress being made if it hopes to build public confidence in its counterterrorism efforts.


In recent years, the country has seen a resurgence of terrorism, with both religious extremists and separatist insurgents carrying out attacks. While the state has made significant strides in reducing terrorism since the height of the insurgency in the mid-2010s, the recent wave of attacks suggests that the problem is far from solved. There are deep-rooted issues that need to be addressed, including poverty, ethnic tensions, and political disenfranchisement, all of which contribute to the conditions that allow terrorism to thrive.


The country’s strategic relationship with China is crucial for its economic future, but that relationship is under threat from both internal and external forces. For Beijing, the safety of its nationals is a top priority, and if Pakistan cannot guarantee that safety, it risks losing not only Chinese investment but also the broader strategic partnership that has been the cornerstone of its foreign policy.


At the same time, Pakistan is grappling with record-level inflation and faces a balance-of-payments crisis, and attracting foreign investment is crucial for stabilising the economy. The perception that Pakistan is a dangerous place for foreign nationals will only make it harder to secure the kind of investments the country needs to pull itself out of this economic quagmire.


The country stands at a critical juncture. If it can restore order and security, it has the potential to attract foreign investment and improve its standing on the global stage. However, if the state fails to act decisively, the consequences will be dire—not only for the victims of terrorism but also for the country’s economic future and international reputation.


Without urgent action, Pakistan risks slipping further into chaos, and the recent attacks could become the beginning of a new and even more dangerous phase of terrorism in the country. The government must act now to protect its citizens, secure its foreign partnerships, and restore confidence in its ability to maintain law and order.


(The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. Views personal.)

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