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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local....

Festive Surge

India’s bazaars have glittered this Diwali with the unmistakable glow of consumer confidence. The country’s festive sales crossed a staggering Rs. 6 lakh crore with goods alone accounting for Rs. 5.4 lakh crore and services contributing Rs. 65,000 crore. More remarkable still, the bulk of this spending flowed through India’s traditional markets rather than e-commerce platforms. After years of economic caution and digital dominance, Indians are once again shopping in person and buying local. This reversal owes much to policy. The recent rationalisation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which trimmed rates across categories from garments to home furnishings, has given consumption a timely push. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s September rate cuts, combined with income tax relief and easing interest rates, have strengthened household budgets just as inflation softened. The middle class, long squeezed between rising costs and stagnant wages, has found reason to spend again. Retailers report that shoppers filled their bags with everything from lab-grown diamonds and casual wear to consumer durables and décor, blurring the line between necessity and indulgence. The effect has been broad-based. According to Crisil Ratings, 40 organised apparel retailers, who together generate roughly a third of the sector’s revenue, could see growth of 13–14 percent this financial year, aided by a 200-basis-point bump from GST cuts alone. Small traders too have flourished. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) estimates that 85 percent of total festive trade came from non-corporate and traditional markets, a robust comeback for brick-and-mortar retail that had been under siege from online rivals. This surge signals a subtle but significant cultural shift. The “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi Diwali” campaigns struck a patriotic chord, with consumers reportedly preferring Indian-made products to imported ones. Demand for Chinese goods fell sharply, while sales of Indian-manufactured products rose by a quarter over last year. For the first time in years, “buying Indian” has become both an act of economic participation and of national pride. The sectoral spread of this boom underlines its breadth. Groceries and fast-moving consumer goods accounted for 12 percent of the total, gold and jewellery 10 percent, and electronics 8 percent. Even traditionally modest categories like home furnishings, décor and confectionery recorded double-digit growth. In the smaller towns that anchor India’s consumption story, traders say stable prices and improved affordability kept registers ringing late into the festive weekend. Yet, much of this buoyancy rests on a fragile equilibrium. Inflation remains contained, and interest rates have been eased, but both could tighten again. Sustaining this spurt will require continued fiscal prudence and regulatory clarity, especially as digital commerce continues to expand its reach. Yet for now, the signs are auspicious. After years of subdued demand and inflationary unease, India’s shoppers appear to have rediscovered their appetite for consumption and their faith in domestic enterprise. The result is not only a record-breaking Diwali, but a reaffirmation of the local marketplace as the heartbeat of India’s economy.

Ceasefire Duplicity and the Challenge of Military Diplomacy

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India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). However, the reality on the ground tells a different story – marked by continued cross-border shelling, terror attacks, and propaganda warfare. The recent terror strike in Pahalgam and Pakistan's immediate violation of the ceasefire agreement raise serious concerns about the credibility of Islamabad's commitments and the sustainability of peace in South Asia.


Parallel to its military posturing, Pakistan has unleashed an aggressive information warfare campaign, spreading fake news, fabricated videos, and social media propaganda aimed at discrediting the Indian Armed Forces and destabilizing India internally. From misrepresenting conflict zones to amplifying communal narratives, Pakistan’s digital tactics are designed to tarnish India’s global image.


Moral struggle

Across India, public sentiment has reached a tipping point. The collective mood is one of resolve and clarity, with citizens demanding a firm and lasting solution to crossborder terrorism and internal radicalization. The repeated provocations have also sparked a broader reflection on national unity, as people from diverse backgrounds call for greater vigilance against divisive narratives and misinformation – whether they originate externally or from within.


Defining aspect

India’s fight against terrorism is now a defining aspect of its global identity, and the events unfolding now will serve as a milestone in the country’s evolving stance: zero tolerance for terror, unwavering pursuit of national security, and a clear moral compass in the face of persistent threats.


In my view, agreeing to a ceasefire at this stage may have been premature, especially considering the strategic advantages India had already gained. The momentum was clearly in our favor, and sustained pressure might have compelled Pakistan to concede more comprehensively.


There was an opportunity to send a strong and lasting message that any aggression against India would be met with decisive and overwhelming force. Leadership in such moments, as seen in other global contexts, often involves resisting external pressures to ensure long-term national security objectives are achieved.


Familiar Pattern

On paper, Pakistan agreed to a so-called ceasefire, rearming the 2003 agreement with India. However, in less than 10 hours, Pakistani forces violated the ceasefire, launching unprovoked shelling on Indian territory.


This pattern of duplicity is neither new nor surprising. Over the past two decades, Pakistan has routinely broken ceasefire agreements soon after signing them – more than 5,000 ceasefire violations were recorded in 2020 alone.


This time, their ceasefire plea came only after facing increasing military pressure and internal instability. Reports indicate that a call was made from the Pakistani Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) to his Indian counterpart, seeking immediate de-escalation after Pakistan realized the consequences of further escalation. But can such a plea be taken seriously, especially when it's followed by another violation?


A Moment of Strategic Strength for India India’s current position of military and moral strength has sent a powerful message across the region and beyond. The ability to swiftly neutralize threats, counter aggression with precision, and maintain strategic restraint despite provocation demonstrates India's evolving doctrine in the face of cross-border terrorism.


Many believe that had the ceasefire not been agreed upon, Pakistan – facing operational setbacks and international isolation – would have found itself with little choice but to deescalate or surrender. The limited tactical support Pakistan reportedly received from foreign allies failed to bolster its standing, further underlining India’s superior strategic posture.


Terrorism as State Policy

Despite international pressure and FATF scrutiny, Pakistan continues to harbor UNdesignated terrorists and provide sanctuary to organizations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and others. These groups not only plan and launch attacks on Indian soil but also serve Pakistan’s objective of creating unrest and undermining Indian sovereignty, particularly in Jammu & Kashmir.


India has repeatedly presented dossiers and intelligence to international bodies, detailing Pakistan’s involvement in state-sponsored terrorism, yet tangible punitive action has been limited.


Strategic Resolve

India has shifted its posture from one of strategic restraint to one of deterrence and assertive diplomacy. From the 2016 surgical strikes to the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, New Delhi has demonstrated it will not tolerate cross-border terrorism. At the same time, India has chosen to pursue military diplomacy to avoid unnecessary escalation, engaging DGMOs, maintaining hotline communications, and leveraging multilateral pressure.


The new Indian war doctrine, reportedly accepted by key global players including the U.S., defines any terror attack as an act of war—a stark warning to those who underestimate India’s resolve.


(The author is a resident of Mumbai. Views personal.)

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