Climate of Division

America’s second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement marks a seismic shift in global climate diplomacy.

For the second time in less than a decade, the United States has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord, the landmark 2015 international treaty aimed at combating global warming. President Donald Trump, fresh into his second term, signed an executive order to exit the agreement, characterizing it as an “unfair, one-sided rip-off.” The move, announced with great fanfare at a rally in Washington, underscores his administration’s unwavering scepticism toward climate science and its prioritization of domestic fossil fuel production.

This decision leaves the United States among a dubious quartet of nations—alongside Iran, Libya, and Yemen—standing outside the global pact. It also delivers a significant blow to international efforts to limit the planet’s temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Paris Agreement was a hard-won achievement in 2015, signed by 196 parties after years of negotiations. Nations were asked to set voluntary emissions-reduction targets and submit plans for achieving them, with progress reviewed every five years. Wealthier countries also pledged financial support for developing nations to adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy.

The United States, under President Barack Obama, played a pivotal role in shaping the accord and committed to reducing emissions by 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. But the path to fulfilling those promises has been anything but smooth. Trump first announced the U.S. withdrawal in 2017, claiming the agreement undermined American sovereignty and disadvantaged domestic industries. Although his administration formally exited in 2020, the Biden presidency reversed course in 2021, rejoining the accord and setting more ambitious climate targets.

Trump’s latest decision not only reverses those gains but also accelerates the timeline. By declaring the withdrawal effective immediately—sidestepping the standard one-year notice period—the United States has left its global partners scrambling to recalibrate.

As the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, contributing 15 percent of global emissions, the U.S. plays an outsized role in global warming. Its participation in the Paris Agreement is not just symbolic but essential for achieving global climate goals. The country’s previous commitments under Biden—to halve emissions by 2035 and reach net-zero by 2050—set a high bar for international cooperation and spurred investments in renewable energy worldwide.

The abrupt withdrawal jeopardizes these gains. Without U.S. leadership, the momentum toward clean energy could slow, as could the flow of climate finance to developing nations. The United States had pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund but delivered only $1 billion, leaving a gaping shortfall for nations most vulnerable to rising sea levels, extreme weather, and other climate-related crises.

Trump’s rhetoric, dismissing climate change as a “hoax,” aligns with his broader push to deregulate the oil and gas industry.

Global investments in renewable energy have surged since the Paris Agreement’s adoption, driven in part by the accord’s long-term vision. Wind and solar energy capacity has nearly doubled, and clean energy technologies have outpaced fossil fuels in growth. The U.S.’s withdrawal risks derailing this progress, particularly if it emboldens other major emitters like China or India to scale back their commitments.

The Paris Agreement is far from perfect. Its non-binding nature and reliance on voluntary targets leave it vulnerable to political winds. Yet, it represents the most comprehensive global effort to address climate change, fostering collaboration and innovation across borders.

Trump’s withdrawal leaves a vacuum that other nations, particularly China, may seek to fill. While China has made strides in renewable energy, its growing emissions underscore the challenge of achieving global decarbonization without American participation.

The resilience of the Paris Agreement will be tested in the coming years. As the U.S. retreats into isolationism, the question looms whether can the rest of the world carry the burden of climate leadership alone?