Cold Ambitions

From Cold War strategies to Donald Trump’s property-driven diplomacy, Greenland remains a nexus of great power competition.

Greenland, the world’s largest island, has long been a geopolitical prize coveted by empires, strategists and now, deal-making presidents following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent and startling claim over it. Nestled in the Arctic and strategically positioned between Washington and Moscow, Greenland’s importance extends far beyond its sparse population of 60,000. Its ice-covered expanse conceals vast reserves of rare earth minerals, critical to modern technology while providing unrivalled strategic access to the Arctic.

Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland is no historical anomaly but part of a broader narrative of U.S. aspirations for Arctic dominance. In 2019, Trump floated the idea of buying the island, likening it to a “real estate deal,” only to be rebuffed by Denmark, which called the notion “absurd.” Trump’s transactional approach returned with force recently, as he declared Greenland essential to “National Security and Freedom throughout the World.” His remarks came alongside threats to retake the Panama Canal and hints of economic leverage over Canada—rhetoric that has drawn parallels to other territorial disputes, from Taiwan to Ukraine.

American fascination with Greenland dates back to the 19th century. As the United States expanded its territory through purchases like the Louisiana and Alaska acquisitions, Greenland’s vast Arctic expanse appeared as a natural extension of its growing dominion.

The island’s connection to ` is deep, rooted in centuries of Nordic history. Greenland fell under Norwegian rule in the 13th century before being united with Denmark in the 16th century. By the late 18th century, Denmark had declared Greenland its colony, a status solidified by the 1814 Treaty of Kiel.

It was during World War II, however, that Greenland’s modern strategic importance emerged. Following the German invasion of Denmark in 1940, the United States acted to secure Greenland under the guise of the Monroe Doctrine. As the Cold War dawned, Greenland’s position as the shortest polar route between Washington and Moscow made it an invaluable asset. The U.S. established Thule Air Base in 1953 under Operation Blue Jay, a cornerstone of its Arctic strategy and NATO’s North Atlantic defences.

The end of the Cold War saw a decline in U.S. interest, much to the chagrin of Greenlanders who had benefited from American investment. But the Arctic’s geopolitical allure has resurged. Melting ice caps have unlocked shipping lanes and exposed untapped resources, causing renewed competition between global powers. In 2018, the U.S. Second Fleet was reestablished to secure the North Atlantic, while China, declaring itself a “near-Arctic state,” has become Greenland’s largest foreign investor. Chinese firms now control significant portions of Greenland’s rare earth resources and fish stocks, sparking concerns in Washington and Copenhagen.

Greenland’s trajectory toward independence adds another layer to the geopolitical puzzle. Home-rule was established in 2009, granting the territory autonomy over natural resources. With a burgeoning economy, driven in part by Chinese investment, Greenland’s per capita GDP has surpassed that of the UK. Prime Minister Múte B. Egede has called for a path to full independence, buoyed by newfound confidence in the island’s economic potential. A draft constitution has already been prepared, and upcoming elections could hasten the island’s break from Denmark.

For Denmark, the stakes are high. In response to Trump’s latest remarks, Copenhagen announced €1.3 billion in additional spending for Greenland’s defence and development, a move likely intended to shore up its influence. The recent redesign of Denmark’s royal coat of arms, prominently featuring Greenland and the Faroe Islands, underscores the kingdom’s symbolic commitment to its Arctic territories.

Trump’s overtures are unlikely to succeed in the immediate term. But his rhetoric highlights the enduring relevance of Greenland in global geopolitics. With Russia expanding its Arctic footprint and China securing footholds in Greenland’s economy, the island is once again a focal point of great-power competition.