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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Collaborate with religious leaders, teachers, and community groups to enhance public safety

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

Praveen Dixit

In an interview, Praveen Dixit, IPS, Special Rapporteur NHRC for Maharashtra & Goa, and Director General of Police (Retired) Maharashtra, talks about the challenges before the police force and the solutions. Excerpts…


Q: Convicted gangsters like Lawrence Bishnoi and his rivals are increasing their activities, and the situation seems similar to the Bombay of the 90s. What are your thoughts on this emerging situation?

A: The situation in Mumbai today is starkly different from the 1990s. Back then, Dawood Ibrahim and his rivals hired convicted sharpshooters. Now, gangs recruit unemployed youth under 17 with no criminal record. Crime has become borderless, involving recruits from remote areas across the States and beyond.


Key figures like Amol Bishnoi, brother of Lawrence Bishnoi, are operating from abroad, with associates in Canada and other countries. Suspected state-backed operatives from China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka may also be involved.


Three international factors complicate India’s security: ultra-leftist groups, Muslim fundamentalist sympathisers, like ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates, and anarchist-backed organisations like those supported by George Soros. Rising trends in drugs, weapon smuggling, cybercrime, and cryptocurrency converge to exploit religious, regional, and social divides, fuelling organised crime’s rapid growth.


Q: What are the challenges before our law-enforcing agencies?

A: Crimes like youth radicalisation, jihadi recruitment, smuggling, cybercrimes, and cryptocurrency often have external links, with some countries sponsoring terrorism and fake currency.


Q: Gangsters in jails have access to mobile phones and other contraband and continue to commit crimes like murder, extortion, and smuggling. How can this be stopped?

A: Indian jails suffer from outdated infrastructure and British-era laws, with repeated calls from the Supreme Court for updates. Overcrowding in metropolitan jails contrasts with underused district jails, while trial delays worsen jail populations. Under the Bhartia Nagarik Suraksha Sanvita (BNSS), video conferencing has enabled remote bail hearings and healthcare access for over 11,000 prisoners since 2017. Most jails need modernisation within 5-7 years, with issues like mobile misuse and unauthorised media access on the rise.


Q: What is your take on Baba Siddiqui's matter?

A: More than 20 accused have been arrested from across the country. As per the investigating officer, jailed gangster Lawrence Bishnoi’s brother Anmol, believed to be living in Canada, was allegedly behind the murder, but the motive was not clear. The accused were provided weapons, cartridges, SIM cards, and mobile phones. It appears neither Baba Siddique nor his son had disclosed these threats. Celebrities receiving threats must inform the police immediately and avoid any routine that makes it easy for them to be identified and assaulted. This may be a business rivalry, not a political assassination. The investigation will determine the motive.

Q: Is Mumbai returning to an earlier period of the 90s when celebrities were receiving threats from underworld gangs?

A: Today, with legislation such as the Maharashtra Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA) as modified in 2012, and the Maharashtra Prevention of Dangerous Activities (MPDA) Act, the police are in a much stronger position to ensure stern action against criminals on record. These preventive measures would ensure the situation of the nineties would not relapse. Those receiving threats should avoid paying extortionists. People should have faith in the competency of the police and help the police to nab these criminals. At the same time, people should also take maximum precautions as suggested by police on their websites about their safety.

Q: What other steps are needed to improve the situation?

A: Cybercriminals use fake threats like digital arrests and social media scams to defraud crores daily. They launder money through 'mule' accounts, 4.5 lakh of which were frozen last year, often using stolen KYC documents. Police are investigating the bank officials involved.


To protect yourself, avoid unverified calls, suspicious apps, and unsolicited email links. Confirm recipients before transferring funds. Report scams to cybercrime.gov.in or dial 1930/14407.


Preventing youth drug abuse is also vital. Rehabilitation centres are available, and the 1056 DISHA helpline offers support. Reintegrating juveniles through skill training can deter crime.


Police should collaborate with religious leaders, teachers, and community groups to enhance public safety.

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