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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

‘Everything in Mumbai is beautiful’

Pic: Ashish Rane
Pic: Ashish Rane

Very few photojournalists have captured Mumbai on their lenses like Ashish Rane has done. With a work experience of more than 25 years Rane has witnessed the evolution of Mumbai, capturing its pulse with his camera. He spoke with Prithvi Asthana on the evolving world of photojournalism and Mumbai. Excerpts…


How did your career start as a photojournalist? What inspired you?

After graduating from J.J. (Jamsetji Jeejabhoy) School of Art, I initially worked in advertising agencies. I realised the 9-5 job was not for me, and I wanted to do something different in my life. Meanwhile, my father handed me a camera, and with that, I began shooting at the weddings side-by-side while doing my job. Gradually, I started to feel a sense of connection with the camera and considered a career in journalism. The efforts bore no fruit. Accidentally, a former BJP MP, Ramdas Nayak was shot dead, and I was the first one to reach there. I was a freelancer back then, so the question was, Who should I give these photos to? Then, my friend, Naresh Kharad, helped me connect with Organiser, a magazine affiliate with the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), and handed over to them the rolls and the photos. The next day, there was a public rally at Shivaji Park where leaders like Bal Thackeray and L.K. Advani were present. When I reached there to cover the event, a large supplement was being distributed. After getting a hand on one, surprisingly, I found the supplement contained my photos, with ‘All photos by Ashish Rane’ written on it. This kick-started my career and inspired me to keep working in this field.


What was your first assignment as a photojournalist?

My first official assignment dates back to 1994, when I was working for Samyantar and Abhiyan magazine. Aishwarya Rai had won the Miss World, and I had to cover her trip as soon as she landed at Mumbai airport.


What qualities should a photojournalist have?

While there are various qualities, one vital thing for this field is having a camera by your side for 24 hours. Secondly, one should be sharp and alert to capture the events happening in the surroundings. Essential moments don’t knock on your door and tell you to capture them; your sharpness and alertness help you capture those memorable moments. Furthermore, a photojournalist should never inform others about his or her whereabouts; in photojournalism, the left hand should never know what the right hand is doing. This quality keeps you ahead of the other photographers.

How has the field of photojournalism changed, according to you?

In earlier days, photojournalists used to get two to three rolls for the camera. The photos had to be taken meticulously because of the limited rolls. Next to that was the process of developing the film rolls to get the real picture. Nowadays, everything has become easier and convenient. Digital Cameras have replaced the old cameras; now, photojournalists click in burst mode and capture a series of photos. After that, the photographers choose the best out of them. So today, the work is quickly done in a smooth manner without any problems. Another change is, if there is a mega event happening, every photojournalist will only cover it, leaving the other events out of scope.


What is the most beautiful thing about Mumbai?

I have clicked so many photos and have discovered more than 100 locations to capture and carve out the spirit of Mumbai in different images. So, in my opinion, everything in Mumbai is beautiful.


How has the city of Mumbai transformed in the past decades in terms of infrastructure?

Infrastructure has gone through a major upgradation. Before these times, I wanted to show the bird’s-eye view of Mumbai to the audience. I started to take photos in 2014, from the top-most places and buildings. The photos were easier to take due to the absence of high-rise buildings and bridges. When the pictures were showcased in my exhibition, people thought that I had taken my pictures from a drone; I had to put up a board clarifying that none of the photos were taken from drones. The change in infrastructure does hinder photography, for instance, previously, Haji Ali was visible from Worli, but now, due to the coastal road, it is difficult to see it.


How did you feel after Raj Thackeray penned a letter for you?

It was very generous of him to send me a letter. It was an amusing feeling to receive that letter. I had invited him to inaugurate my exhibition. But, as he had an important foreign trip, he could not come. His secretary called me and was sorry as Raj sir wasn’t able to come. It was a detailed letter, and Raj sir wrote it as if he had seen the whole exhibition.

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