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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Convict Saquib Nachan dies, with many secrets

Mumbai: Twice convicted terrorist Saquib A. Nachan from Thane district passed away following brain hemorrhage at a New Delhi hospital while in judicial custody, official sources said.

 

Nachan, 65, nabbed by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) 18 months ago, had collapsed following a massive stroke in the Tihar Jail on June 22.

 

First, he was rushed to the government-run Deen Dayal Upadhyay Hospital where the medicos diagnosed him with brain hemorrhage but he was not responding to treatment.

 

Later, as he was unconscious and remained critical, he was shifted to the Safdarjung Hospital where he breathed his last today. Further details are awaited.

 

As news of his passing spread, a team of cops led by Padgha Police Station head Police Inspector Jitendra Thakur visited the vicinity where the Nachan clan resides.

 

“The situation here is absolutely calm and peaceful,” Thakur told ‘The Perfect Voice’ later, without elaborating much.

 

Last week, security circles were agog with speculation that he may have passed away, but the air cleared after his son Aaquib and other relatives were summoned to New Delhi to meet him.

 

Long stint in jail

Hailing from the Borivali-Padgha twin villages in Bhiwandi taluka of adjoining Thane district, Nachan – who had spent two long stints in jail for different terror cases – was arrested by the NIA in December 2023.

 

This time, he was booked and lodged in prison for allegedly heading a terror module of the banned ISIS operating surreptitiously in Maharashtra.

 

The sleepy village of Padgha with a population of around 6000 people – more than 80 pc Muslims – shot to global headlines after the ISIS Maharashtra had unilaterally proclaimed it as ‘Al Sham’ or a liberated zone, and Nachan proclaiming himself as the organization’s state chief.

 

Among other things, the investigators were probing Nachan’s involvement with the dreaded ISIS terror outfit, his associates in the state and other parts of India, their global connections with like-minded organizations, their suspected penetration in this country, aspects pertaining to funds, weapons, and manpower recruitment for their nefarious plans – which may remain secret now.

 

A former state president and general secretary of the outlawed Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Nachan had spent nearly 20 years in prison following conviction in two separate terror cases.

 

He was first arrested and convicted by the Supreme Court in 1997 with a 10-year jail-term for hatching terror plots in connivance with Khalistani extremists.

 

Later, he was convicted by a Mumbai court for the 2002-2003 suburban train blasts, again for 10 years till his release in 2017.

 

Subsequently, the NIA had swooped on Padgha village in Dec. 2023 for probing the ISIS case and arrested Nachan plus many others. He remained in judicial custody till his demise today.

 

Who was Saquib A. Nachan

A former SIMI state president and general secretary plus a self-styled ISIS Maharashtra head, Nachan, 65, has been booked in over a dozen terror-related cases from the 1990s.

 

He was arrested and convicted twice – and spent 10 years in jail each time – for different terror cases. Nachan’s other associates were also convicted for different crimes.

 

Nachan was grudgingly acknowledged for his sharp legal acumen and fought his own cases as all bar association lawyers had boycotted him and his associates in the past.

 

The NIA raids in Dec. 2023 found that almost all the ISIS Maharashtra cells were operating from Borivali-Padgha with alleged conspiracies of violent jihadi acts in tune with ISIS’ plans to develop a strong base in India.

 

On June 2, the Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) carried out massive raids in Borivali-Padgha and rounded up around a dozen suspects, including past-present office-bearers of the SIMI.

 

The premises belonged to Nachan, plus Aaquib S. Nachan, Kaif Nachan, Shajil Nachan, Faraq Zubair Mulla and Abdul Latif Kaskar.

 

The ATS said that following reliable intel of certain anti-national activities and terror attacks being plotted, the agency swung into action, secured search warrants from the Thane Court and launched the search-cum-raids which yielded mobile phones, a sword, a chopper, property papers and literature pertaining to terrorism and radicalisation.

 

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