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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Crime Solving with Trained Canines

Updated: Nov 29, 2024

rained Canines

Trained dogs, known as K9 units, have become invaluable in a range of criminal investigations worldwide, acting as powerful allies to law enforcement agencies. Their keen senses and loyalty have earned them a central role in investigations across diverse areas. Dogs have been integral to policing since ancient times, initially serving as guardians, hunters, and occasional trackers. In Europe, early law enforcers used dogs to locate suspects and stolen goods—a practice that has evolved into today’s essential K9 units.


K9 units are becoming essential in high-profile cases. In the 2018 Kathua rape case, dogs traced the accused’s movements, leading to convictions. In a 2020 Uttar Pradesh gang rape, dogs tracked suspects, enabling swift arrests. Police forces across regions, like in Madhya Pradesh, use K9s effectively, with one unit tracking a suspect over 12 km. Recently, Gujarat registered its first prohibition case using an alcohol-detecting Labrador Tamri of 18 months old. Canine evidence, especially when paired with DNA and witness testimony, is valuable and accepted in Indian courts.


Several court cases have shaped the legal standing of canine evidence. In Shri Ashok Gavade v. State of Goa (1993), the court stressed the importance of proper documentation of the dog's tracking process and consistency in evidence. In Pandian Kanappan Nadar v. State of Maharashtra (1993), the court accepted tracking dog evidence after a dog identified the accused by sniffing a slipper and knife at the crime scene. The Supreme Court, in Gade Lakshmi Mangraju v. State of A.P. (2001), highlighted inherent weaknesses in sniffer dog evidence, while Dinesh Borthakur v. State of Assam (2008) deemed it hearsay and unsuitable as primary evidence.


Col. Chug, the Founder and Former Head of the Police K9 Cell at the Ministry of Home Affairs Government of India has worked extensively with the K9 Force, leveraging their skills in diverse cases. Dr. Keshav Kumar himself, in his service times, used K9 units to solve many cases. In 1991, a Dog Squad traced stone pelters during the Nadiad riots, leading to key arrests. In 1999, dogs helped seize five kg of smuggled RDX in Kutch, breaking up a cross-border gang. In 2013, a CBI sniffer dog detected poached tiger bones, a first in wildlife crime detection, and another tracked discarded bribe money in a corruption case. Dogs have also proven effective in locating hidden cash in corruption cases, showcasing their versatility in fighting crime.


They detect explosives to prevent terrorism, search for drugs in customs, and help track missing persons or fugitives in rugged terrain. They scan airports, public events, and government sites, effectively preventing attacks. In natural disasters, K9s excel in search and rescue, locating survivors faster than human responders. Regarding wildlife crime, countries like India use dogs to track poachers and detect illegal wildlife products. K9s also aid forensic investigations, finding weapons, remains, and crime scene evidence. Recently, they've even trained to detect hidden electronic devices like SD cards and USB drives, aiding in cybercrime cases.


In the UK, dogs help combat cable theft by detecting forensic markers like SmartWater and SelectaDNA on stolen cables. This approach aids authorities in recovering stolen property and protecting infrastructure, offering a model for other countries facing similar issues.


In India, one competition of the All India Police Duty Meet focussed on the skills and capabilities of trained dogs. They are often awarded medals and monetary rewards for exceptional service. Upon retirement, these dogs receive ceremonial honours, and if dismissed, they are granted due respect for their dedication.


While forensic science evolves, canine units remain vital in solving crimes, especially in India's unyielding pursuit of justice.


(Dr. Kumar is a former IPS officer and forensic consultant to Assam government. Das is a student of FSU, Guwahati. Views personal.)

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