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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Diwali: The Festival of Lights, Sweets, and Blockbusters

Diwali, the festival of lights, is celebrated across India with immense enthusiasm, signifying the triumph of light over darkness and good over evil. Streets and homes are decorated with diyas (earthen lamps) and vibrant rangolis, creating an atmosphere brimming with positivity. Families come together, exchanging sweets, wearing new clothes, and performing rituals to welcome prosperity. Diwali is also a time for people to unwind and enjoy, embracing joy and togetherness. For many, this festive season isn’t complete without one more essential element: Bollywood blockbusters.


Over the decades, Bollywood has become an integral part of Diwali celebrations. Big production houses often reserve their biggest releases for the Diwali weekend, drawing moviegoers in droves. This trend began in the era of single-screen theatres, where crowds would queue up hours in advance to watch their favourite stars on the big screen. For Bollywood fans, a Diwali release has traditionally been a must-watch, with films echoing the season’s spirit of joy, love, and hope.


Since the 1990s, Shah Rukh Khan, popularly known as the “King of Bollywood,” has dominated Diwali releases. His movies have become synonymous with the festival. In 1993, Baazigar launched him into superstardom, cementing Diwali as a lucky time for his releases. This was followed by an incredible streak with Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge (1995), Dil To Pagal Hai (1997), Kuch Kuch Hota Hai (1998), Mohabbatein (2000), Veer-Zaara (2004), Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham (2001), Don (2006), Om Shanti Om (2007), Jab Tak Hai Jaan (2012), and Happy New Year (2014) – all of which were embraced by audiences with open arms. These films became monumental Diwali hits, offering audiences the perfect blend of romance, drama, and music.


But Shah Rukh was not alone in owning the Diwali box office.. comedy franchises like Golmaal and Housefull became consistent Diwali favourites, promising laughter and light-hearted entertainment. The appeal of these Diwali releases lay in their ‘masala’ formula—a mix of romance, action, comedy, and music. Families flocked to theatres, making these films part of their celebrations, and movie houses saw packed halls, with the joyous sounds of clapping and cheering filling the air. Bollywood became an extension of the Diwali festivities, bringing people together for an immersive experience that complemented the festival’s vibrancy.


However, with the rise of streaming platforms, the trend has shifted. Since 2021, Diwali releases have struggled to draw audiences to theatres as strongly as before. Many people now prefer to enjoy the festival from the comfort of their homes, tuning into OTT platforms for entertainment. Despite this shift, filmmakers continue to bet big on Diwali releases, hoping to recreate the magic of past blockbusters. This Diwali, audiences can look forward to Singham Again, a highly anticipated action-packed addition to the successful Singham franchise. Directed by Rohit Shetty, Singham Again boasts a star-studded cast, including Ajay Devgn, Deepika Padukone, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, and Jackie Shroff. Known for its unique mix of action and comedy, the Singham series is expected to bring the excitement back to theatres, and it’s set to be one of the most-watched films this Diwali.


Another big release this year is Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, the latest in the horror-comedy franchise that first captured audiences in 2007. With Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 being a resounding success in 2022, there’s significant buzz around this instalment, with audiences eagerly awaiting its spine-chilling and humorous antics. Other releases include Lucky Bhaskar, starring Dulquer Salmaan, which explores the mysterious journey of a banker in the 1980s, and Amaran, a Tamil biopic based on the life of Major Mukund Varadarajan, an Indian Army hero.


As Diwali draws near, moviegoers are eagerly looking forward to this lineup, especially Singham Again and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3. While the cinema-going experience has evolved, the excitement around Bollywood’s Diwali offerings remains a testament to the festival's spirit—a time to celebrate, revel, and share happiness. Diwali, the festival of lights, continues to illuminate the lives of millions, whether through traditional diyas or the glitz and glamour of Bollywood.


(The author is a communication professional. Views personal.)

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