Durability of Peace

On Monday, the world leaders marked the first commemoration of the October 7 attack on Israel. The United Nations Secretary-General, banned by Israel for his biased approach, has finally condemned Iran’s assault on Jewish land. While the US president called the Iranian aggression “unspeakable brutality” and his next in line planted a pomegranate tree, Israel expanded its military operation against Iran’s antisemitism. And now Israel is grinding the militants down to dust to prepare the ground for perpetual peace or what they call “the total victory”!

A year has also passed since Israel and Arabs were to seek peace by the best means. The young reformist leadership of Saudi Arabia was about to sign a deal to finally accept Israel as a valuable strategic partner in shaping the future of the new Middle East. But then the Iran-backed proxies attacked Israel and boiled up the old Arab-Jew conflict. Initially, Iran denied any involvement in or foreknowledge of Hamas’s attacks. But weeks later it joined the aggression as its “Axis of Resistance” started tumbling. When the Hamas chief was spotted and killed in Iran and the Hezbollah leadership too collapsed, Iran itself launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. “From The River To The Sea, Palestine Will Be Free” the old rallying cry started spreading hatred again. It is a call for wiping out Israel and establishing the Palestinian state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. There is nothing wrong in demanding statehood for Palestine; but for that, would you justify the destruction of a legitimate Jewish land?

While facing Biden’s anger behind the scenes, Israel has intensified its operation to guard its existence. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are destroying the tunnels connecting Iraq to Syria and Syria to Lebanon that are used to smuggle Iranian weapons and transport the terrorists. IDF are targeting the secret passages built down below the UN’s ‘Blue Line’ to end the constant threat of cross-border attacks on Israeli civilians. IDF’s ‘limited, localised and targeted raids’ in Lebanon are reported to have eliminated over 250 Hezbollah militants in a mere two weeks and seized a large count of weaponries kept hidden under Lebanon cities. Israel’s PM is trying to reach out to the Iranian opposition. He also released a video message for Iranians, promising them a better future, prosperity and peace. And also hinting the change in regime.

A year has passed since the Israel- Gaza conflict, and the so-called superpower under Biden’s presidency could not find any solution around the negotiation table. Now, as the election nears, the US seems more desperate for a ceasefire than the Middle East. The US claims that the mastermind of the October 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar who was presumed to be killed, is alive and hiding in a tunnel underneath Gaza, holding Israeli hostages in the same vicinity. Yahya Sinwar is the new chief of Hamas, to whom Israel had proposed a safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the immediate release of all the hostages and the demilitarisation of the region. Hamas has rejected the offer. Qatar and Egypt have accused the Israeli PM of impeding the peace process. But Israel’s war aims have been clear since the first day - the release of Israeli hostages and a permanent end to war. Israel is known for its intelligence-backed target elimination of terrorists instead of negotiation that would in turn legitimize the terrorist outfit. The controversial book “WAR” quotes Netanyahu “The harder you hit, the more successful you’re going to be in the negotiation.” This reaffirms that Israel is going to fight and fight hard for its people.

The Middle East escalation has divided US Democrats and young US voters deeply. De-risking the region could have been a key achievement for Biden’s party to lead the 2024 elections, but, alas! The Biden Administration has failed to enforce economic sanctions on Iran. The Iranian oil-export that had reduced to 70000 barrels a day during Trump’s regime increased to nearly 2 million bpd this year. In the past year, Biden’s inability to intensify the financial pressure on the regime secured a $100 billion revenue increase for Iran that jeopardized the new Middle Eastern dream. Now that the 5th of November is just a month away, the Biden government has decided to ‘expand’ the oil sanctions on Iran.

Israel’s state-owned media house has reported that Iran has depleted almost one-third of its high-grade missiles in its attacks on Israel. Recently, the former Iranian President revealed that the head of Iran’s special intelligence unit assigned to spy on Israeli intelligence was himself a Mossad agent. Not just the unit head but all the 20 agents in his team were Israeli spies! The unit provided Israel with Iran’s defence information including Iran’s nuclear program for years. The alleged Israeli team were reportedly able to flee Iran following their operations! Internal instability, socio-economic erosion, collapsed resistance forces, extended US sanctions and a constant threat to the country’s energy infrastructure have made the Iranian regime vulnerable.

So now Iran is threatening reformist Arab countries who have assured Iran of their neutrality. China, Russia and the United States, the mighty triangle of influence that largely determines the course of world events, have invested heavily in these Middle Eastern countries. And so the Middle East escalation will soon be curtailed as economic interdependence is the new driving force for peace. The global power dynamics can assure “victory” to Israel. But will this assure a durable peace? Golda Meir, the former Prime Minister of Israel once said “If the Arabs lay down their arms, there will be no more war. If Israel lays down its arms, there will be no more State of Israel.” The struggle for existence is the only perpetual thing.

(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)