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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Durability of Peace

Updated: Oct 22, 2024

Durability of Peace

On Monday, the world leaders marked the first commemoration of the October 7 attack on Israel. The United Nations Secretary-General, banned by Israel for his biased approach, has finally condemned Iran’s assault on Jewish land. While the US president called the Iranian aggression “unspeakable brutality” and his next in line planted a pomegranate tree, Israel expanded its military operation against Iran’s antisemitism. And now Israel is grinding the militants down to dust to prepare the ground for perpetual peace or what they call “the total victory”!


A year has also passed since Israel and Arabs were to seek peace by the best means. The young reformist leadership of Saudi Arabia was about to sign a deal to finally accept Israel as a valuable strategic partner in shaping the future of the new Middle East. But then the Iran-backed proxies attacked Israel and boiled up the old Arab-Jew conflict. Initially, Iran denied any involvement in or foreknowledge of Hamas’s attacks. But weeks later it joined the aggression as its “Axis of Resistance” started tumbling. When the Hamas chief was spotted and killed in Iran and the Hezbollah leadership too collapsed, Iran itself launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. “From The River To The Sea, Palestine Will Be Free” the old rallying cry started spreading hatred again. It is a call for wiping out Israel and establishing the Palestinian state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. There is nothing wrong in demanding statehood for Palestine; but for that, would you justify the destruction of a legitimate Jewish land?


While facing Biden’s anger behind the scenes, Israel has intensified its operation to guard its existence. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are destroying the tunnels connecting Iraq to Syria and Syria to Lebanon that are used to smuggle Iranian weapons and transport the terrorists. IDF are targeting the secret passages built down below the UN’s ‘Blue Line’ to end the constant threat of cross-border attacks on Israeli civilians. IDF’s ‘limited, localised and targeted raids’ in Lebanon are reported to have eliminated over 250 Hezbollah militants in a mere two weeks and seized a large count of weaponries kept hidden under Lebanon cities. Israel’s PM is trying to reach out to the Iranian opposition. He also released a video message for Iranians, promising them a better future, prosperity and peace. And also hinting the change in regime.


A year has passed since the Israel- Gaza conflict, and the so-called superpower under Biden’s presidency could not find any solution around the negotiation table. Now, as the election nears, the US seems more desperate for a ceasefire than the Middle East. The US claims that the mastermind of the October 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar who was presumed to be killed, is alive and hiding in a tunnel underneath Gaza, holding Israeli hostages in the same vicinity. Yahya Sinwar is the new chief of Hamas, to whom Israel had proposed a safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the immediate release of all the hostages and the demilitarisation of the region. Hamas has rejected the offer. Qatar and Egypt have accused the Israeli PM of impeding the peace process. But Israel’s war aims have been clear since the first day - the release of Israeli hostages and a permanent end to war. Israel is known for its intelligence-backed target elimination of terrorists instead of negotiation that would in turn legitimize the terrorist outfit. The controversial book “WAR” quotes Netanyahu “The harder you hit, the more successful you’re going to be in the negotiation.” This reaffirms that Israel is going to fight and fight hard for its people.


The Middle East escalation has divided US Democrats and young US voters deeply. De-risking the region could have been a key achievement for Biden’s party to lead the 2024 elections, but, alas! The Biden Administration has failed to enforce economic sanctions on Iran. The Iranian oil-export that had reduced to 70000 barrels a day during Trump’s regime increased to nearly 2 million bpd this year. In the past year, Biden’s inability to intensify the financial pressure on the regime secured a $100 billion revenue increase for Iran that jeopardized the new Middle Eastern dream. Now that the 5th of November is just a month away, the Biden government has decided to ‘expand’ the oil sanctions on Iran.


Israel’s state-owned media house has reported that Iran has depleted almost one-third of its high-grade missiles in its attacks on Israel. Recently, the former Iranian President revealed that the head of Iran’s special intelligence unit assigned to spy on Israeli intelligence was himself a Mossad agent. Not just the unit head but all the 20 agents in his team were Israeli spies! The unit provided Israel with Iran’s defence information including Iran’s nuclear program for years. The alleged Israeli team were reportedly able to flee Iran following their operations! Internal instability, socio-economic erosion, collapsed resistance forces, extended US sanctions and a constant threat to the country’s energy infrastructure have made the Iranian regime vulnerable.


So now Iran is threatening reformist Arab countries who have assured Iran of their neutrality. China, Russia and the United States, the mighty triangle of influence that largely determines the course of world events, have invested heavily in these Middle Eastern countries. And so the Middle East escalation will soon be curtailed as economic interdependence is the new driving force for peace. The global power dynamics can assure “victory” to Israel. But will this assure a durable peace? Golda Meir, the former Prime Minister of Israel once said “If the Arabs lay down their arms, there will be no more war. If Israel lays down its arms, there will be no more State of Israel.” The struggle for existence is the only perpetual thing.


(The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

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