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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints...

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints at a cautious but deliberate reset. Both sides have shown a keenness to replace acrimony with pragmatism. The chill began during the tenure of Justin Trudeau, whose government publicly alleged that Indian agents may have been involved in violent activities on Canadian soil. India rejected the accusations as unfounded and politically motivated. The dispute triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, the freezing of high-level dialogue and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. For two countries that had long prided themselves on democratic affinity, shared Commonwealth ties and large diaspora links, the rapid deterioration was remarkable. Canada is home to one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, numbering well over a million people. Trade and educational links have grown steadily since the late twentieth century. Canadian universities attract tens of thousands of Indian students each year, while Indian professionals and entrepreneurs have contributed significantly to Canada’s economic life. These human connections had long acted as ballast in the relationship. But politics, as ever, can overwhelm social ties. Symbolic Weight Carney’s New Delhi visit therefore carries symbolic weight. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he has entered politics with a reputation for technocratic competence rather than ideological theatrics. His five-day visit to India, from late February to early March, was carefully choreographed to signal renewal. Beginning in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, he met industrialists, bankers and policymakers, emphasising economic cooperation as the cornerstone of the revived relationship. India today is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with ambitions to expand its industrial base, modernise infrastructure and transition towards cleaner sources of energy. Canada, meanwhile, possesses abundant natural resources, technological expertise and capital. The two economies are complementary in ways that diplomacy had recently obscured. One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was a long-term agreement on uranium supply. Canada’s mining giant Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy concluded a ten-year deal worth roughly $2.6bn to supply more than 20m pounds of uranium. For India, which is expanding its civil nuclear programme to meet rising energy demand while limiting carbon emissions, reliable access to uranium is strategically important. The agreement will help fuel a new generation of small and medium reactors, which India sees as crucial to its energy transition. Canada, for its part, is among the world’s leading producers of uranium. Renewed nuclear cooperation therefore reflects not only diplomatic reconciliation but also the convergence of economic interests. Previous agreements between the two countries had faltered amid political tensions. This time both governments have emphasised implementation and timely delivery. Trade Boost Trade, too, looms large in the reset. Bilateral commerce between India and Canada currently hovers around $10bn to $12bn annually, a modest figure for economies of their scale. Both governments have spoken of raising that number dramatically, potentially to $50bn by the end of the decade. Negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), long stalled, have been revived with renewed urgency. Here global geopolitics provides an additional incentive. The increasingly protectionist trade policies of the United States under Donald Trump have unsettled many of Washington’s traditional partners. Tariff threats and economic nationalism have encouraged countries to diversify their commercial relationships. India and Canada, both heavily exposed to the American market, now see advantage in strengthening bilateral trade and investment as a hedge against volatility emanating from Washington. Education and innovation are another pillar of the renewed engagement. Canadian universities are exploring the possibility of establishing campuses in India, enabling Indian students to access Canadian education without leaving the country. Joint research programmes and technological collaboration are expected to deepen intellectual ties that already run deep. Beyond economics lies a broader strategic calculation. The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of twenty-first-century geopolitics. As China’s influence expands across Asia, many countries are seeking new partnerships to preserve a balance of power and maintain open sea lanes. India has positioned itself as a leading voice in this effort, promoting a vision of a free, stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Strategic Dynamics Canada, though geographically distant, has begun to pay greater attention to the region’s strategic dynamics. Collaboration with India could therefore form part of a wider network involving countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. For Ottawa, engagement with New Delhi offers a way to remain relevant in Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape. For India, Canadian support adds another partner to its growing Indo-Pacific coalition. Yet enthusiasm should be tempered with realism. Diplomatic resets are easier to announce than to sustain. The political sensitivities that strained relations in the past have not vanished entirely. Canada’s domestic politics, particularly debates surrounding diaspora activism, remain complex. India, meanwhile, is unlikely to tolerate external criticism on matters it considers internal. Managing these differences will require careful diplomacy and mutual restraint. Nevertheless, the symbolism of the present moment matters. The revival of high-level dialogue, the signing of concrete economic agreements and the visible warmth between leaders all suggest a shared desire to turn the page. In the grand sweep of history, relations between India and Canada have always rested on deeper foundations than temporary political quarrels. If the current reset succeeds, it could transform a once-strained partnership into one of the more promising relationships in the Indo-Pacific era. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

Earthquake of the century rocks Thailand, Myanmar

The previous powerful tremor was recorded in 1912

Bangkok: A 7.7 magnitude earthquake rocked Thailand and neighbouring Myanmar midday on Friday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed, and prompting Myanmar to declare a widespread state of emergency.


The midday temblor with an epicentre near Mandalay, Myanmar's second largest city, was followed by a strong 6.4 magnitude aftershock.


Myanmar's military-run government declared a state of emergency in six regions and states including the capital Naypyitaw and Mandalay, but with the country in the midst of a prolonged bloody civil war it was not clear how help would get to many regions.


The Red Cross said downed power lines are adding to challenges for their teams trying to reach Mandalay and Sagaing regions and southern Shan state.


“Initial reports from the ground suggest the earthquake has caused significant damage,” the Red Cross said. “Information on humanitarian needs is still being gathered.”


Building collapsed

In Bangkok, a construction worker was killed when rubble from the collapsing building site hit his truck and another was crushed by the falling debris, rescue worker Songwut Wangpon told reporters.


Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said in all three people were killed at the site and 90 are missing. He offered no more details about the ongoing rescue efforts but first responders said that seven people had been rescued so far from outside the collapsed building.


Rescue workers say the rubble is still too unstable for them to try and find people possibly trapped beneath.


A dramatic video of the building's collapse near Bangkok's popular Chatuchak market circulated on social media showed the multi-story building with a crane on top toppling into a cloud of dust, while onlookers screamed and ran.


Elsewhere, people in Bangkok evacuated from their buildings were cautioned to stay outside in case there were more aftershocks.


The US Geological Survey and Germany's GFZ center for geosciences said the earthquake was a shallow 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), according to preliminary reports.


'Soil liquefaction caused severe damage'

New Delhi: India's earthquake monitoring agency NCS said the temblor that struck Myanmar and Thailand Friday afternoon caused severe damage because its shaking frequency matched the natural vibration of buildings.


Soil liquefaction -- when soil loses its characteristics and behaves like thick liquid -- was also one of the reasons for damage, O P Mishra, the head of the National Centre for Seismology (NCS), said.


Thailand's capital, Bangkok, which is over a thousand kilometres from the epicentre in Mandalay, Myanmar, suffered significant damage as the rupture's direction was toward it, he said.


The NCS said that seven aftershocks, ranging in magnitude from 3.5 to 7, followed the main earthquake of magnitude 7.5, which struck Mandalay around 11:50 am (IST).


Northeast India also felt the main earthquake and its aftershocks.


The agency said the earthquake was caused by the Sagaing Fault, a major fault line located 1,200 km east of the Indo-Burma subduction zone. The energy from the earthquake spread toward Bangkok, Thailand. Another major reason for the damage was that the earthquake's shaking frequency matched the natural vibration of buildings, making them more vulnerable, the NCS said. "The rupture direction is towards Bangkok, Thailand, causing severe damage to structures in the region due to liquefactions and matching of earthquake shaking frequency with the spectral frequency of the structures," it said.


It said the region has experienced major earthquakes in the past, including a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in 1912 and a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in 1956.


At least 144 people killed, 730 injured

At least 144 people were killed and 730 injured in Myanmar, where photos and video from two hard-hit cities showed extensive damage.


The full extent of death, injury and destruction was not immediately clear — particularly in Myanmar, one of the world's poorest countries. It is embroiled in a civil war and information is tightly controlled.


The head of Myanmar's military government said in the televised speech on Friday evening that at least 144 people were killed and 730 others were injured.


“The death toll and injuries are expected to rise,” Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing said.


Photos from the capital of Naypyidaw showed multiple buildings used to house civil servants destroyed by the quake, and rescue crews pulling victims from the rubble.


Myanmar's government said blood was in high demand in the hardest-hit areas.


Images of buckled and cracked roads in Mandalay and damaged highways as well as the collapse of a bridge and dam raised further concerns about how rescuers would even reach some areas in a country already enduring a widespread humanitarian crisis.

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