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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Embracing a Healthier Life with Yoga

Health is our first wealth—without it, material success feels hollow. Yoga is the key to balance, strength, and true well-being in today’s chaotic world.

International Yoga Day is celebrated on June 21st, an initiative started by our Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi. The reserved theme this year is 'Yoga for one Earth, one health'. The word 'yoga' comes from the Sanskrit 'yuj', meaning 'to join' or 'to unite'. "Maharshi Patanjali, known as the Father of Yoga, was the first to outline its core teachings and true purpose. Ancient texts also refer to Lord Shiva as Adi Yogi, the first yogi.


We often hear the phrase ‘Health is Wealth’, but are we doing enough to convert our health into ultimate wealth? Here are a few handy tips to achieve a healthy body and mind.


Scientific studies have shown that practicing yoga offers numerous physical and mental benefits, including stress relief, better sleep, pain reduction, increased stamina, and overall well-being.


A healthy body and mind are as valuable as money. True luxury and happiness lie in having a healthy life, not in accumulating wealth or materialistic possessions. Both go hand in hand; one without the other seems completely incomplete. Material success appears to be hollow without good health. You can only make good use of wealth when you are physically and mentally fit, as health is undoubtedly our greatest asset.


In today’s fast-paced world, maintaining good health calls for conscious effort and a commitment to a healthy lifestyle. Challenges like hectic schedules, stress, and constant distractions are real and cannot be ignored. But it’s essential to address them by making time for regular exercise, balanced eating, quality sleep, and effective stress management. Prioritising these habits greatly enhances overall well-being.


To make yoga part of your daily routine, start with small, manageable steps. Consistency is key—simple poses and breathing techniques can make a lasting difference.


Key tips to begin yoga

Set a regular time and place: Choose a time and place that suits you best and stick to the schedule without distraction and disruption.


Take small steps, but be consistent: Even a few minutes of yoga are beneficial. Consistency is more important than duration. Progress gradually helps build up the duration and complexity slowly as you become more confident and tenacious. Setting overly ambitious goals at the start may lead to setbacks.


Learn basic pose: To begin with, learn basic poses rather than going for complex ones, as they demand enormous flexibility, which would be possible only after a certain time. Choose poses that resonate with you and that you enjoy doing.


Breathing techniques: Incorporating breathing techniques like pranayama is highly beneficial.


Make it a habit: As part of your daily habit, include yoga to energise your body and mind.


Embrace mindfulness: Practice self-awareness and meditation for your overall well-being. Meditation is a form of mental exercise. End your day with a few minutes of meditation before sleep.


Importance of Yoga: To truly reap its benefits, it is essential to adopt and practice yoga daily. In today’s stressful world, it is highly recommended for people of all ages to maintain physical, mental, and emotional well-being. A key aspect of yoga is its ability to train the mind, helping individuals harness their full potential and manage emotional imbalances effectively.


Benefits of Yoga

Over the years, life has become more stressful and chaotic because of economic pressures, societal expectations, constant social media, negativity, changing family dynamics, poor work-life balance, and technology overuse.


Yoga offers a holistic approach with clear physical benefits—better flexibility, balance, strength, stamina, energy, improved breathing, and support for pain and weight management.


Emotionally, it eases stress and anxiety, improves sleep, sharpens focus, and boosts self-awareness, memory, and overall mental health.


Its power and benefits are vast, cutting across all age groups. Yoga is a timeless gift for well-being—a tool to live fully and freely.


Health is our greatest asset, often appreciated only after it’s lost. So this International Yoga Day, make an unbreakable commitment to adopt, practice, and prioritise your health.


Stay healthy and well.


Happy International Yoga Day!


(The writer is an educator based in Thane.)

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