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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This...

Shinde dilutes demand

Likely to be content with Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai Mumbai: In a decisive shift that redraws the power dynamics of Maharashtra’s urban politics, the standoff over the prestigious Mumbai Mayor’s post has ended with a strategic compromise. Following days of resort politics and intense backroom negotiations, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has reportedly diluted its demand for the top job in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), settling instead for the Deputy Mayor’s post. This development, confirmed by high-ranking party insiders, follows the realization that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) effectively ceded its claims on the Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation (KDMC) to protect the alliance, facilitating a “Mumbai for BJP, Kalyan for Shinde” power-sharing formula. The compromise marks a complete role reversal between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. Both the political parties were in alliance with each other for over 25 years before 2017 civic polls. Back then the BJP used to get the post of Deputy Mayor while the Shiv Sena always enjoyed the mayor’s position. In 2017 a surging BJP (82 seats) had paused its aggression to support the undivided Shiv Sena (84 seats), preferring to be out of power in the Corporation to keep the saffron alliance intact. Today, the numbers dictate a different reality. In the recently concluded elections BJP emerged as the single largest party in Mumbai with 89 seats, while the Shinde faction secured 29. Although the Shinde faction acted as the “kingmaker”—pushing the alliance past the majority mark of 114—the sheer numerical gap made their claim to the mayor’s post untenable in the long run. KDMC Factor The catalyst for this truce lies 40 kilometers north of Mumbai in Kalyan-Dombivali, a region considered the impregnable fortress of Eknath Shinde and his son, MP Shrikant Shinde. While the BJP performed exceptionally well in KDMC, winning 50 seats compared to the Shinde faction’s 53, the lotter for the reservation of mayor’s post in KDMC turned the tables decisively in favor of Shiv Sena there. In the lottery, the KDMC mayor’ post went to be reserved for the Scheduled Tribe candidate. The BJP doesn’t have any such candidate among elected corporatros in KDMC. This cleared the way for Shiv Sena. Also, the Shiv Sena tied hands with the MNS in the corporation effectively weakening the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s alliance with them. Party insiders suggest that once it became clear the BJP would not pursue the KDMC Mayor’s chair—effectively acknowledging it as Shinde’s fiefdom—he agreed to scale down his demands in the capital. “We have practically no hope of installing a BJP Mayor in Kalyan-Dombivali without shattering the alliance locally,” a Mumbai BJP secretary admitted and added, “Letting the KDMC become Shinde’s home turf is the price for securing the Mumbai Mayor’s bungalow for a BJP corporator for the first time in history.” The formal elections for the Mayoral posts are scheduled for later this month. While the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—led by the Shiv Sena (UBT)—has vowed to field candidates, the arithmetic heavily favors the ruling alliance. For Eknath Shinde, accepting the Deputy Mayor’s post in Mumbai is a tactical retreat. It allows him to consolidate his power in the MMR belt (Thane and Kalyan) while remaining a partner in Mumbai’s governance. For the BJP, this is a crowning moment; after playing second fiddle in the BMC for decades, they are poised to finally install their own “First Citizen” of Mumbai.

Fractured Alliance

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), forged in the intrigue-filled aftermath of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power, is now unravelling under the weight of its contradictions. The unlikely partnership of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) [and later the NCP (SP)], was always a shotgun marriage of convenience than a coalition bound by any shared vision. Now, after its catastrophic showing in the 2024 Assembly elections, the cracks that have long existed in this political arrangement are now too deep to ignore.


By its recent decision to contest all upcoming urban local body and Zilla Parishad elections independently, the Sena (UBT) has been the first to openly acknowledge what many have long suspected: the alliance is no longer viable. Uddhav’s faction has realized that remaining shackled to the MVA could alienate its cadre and erode its base further, especially as the Sena (UBT) prepares for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election – a critical lifeline for the party and the Thackeray clan which has held sway over the cash-rich civic body for over three decades now.


In the Assembly polls last year, the MVA’s combined tally of 46 seats was eclipsed even by the 57 seats won by the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, let alone the BJP’s 154. This was despite a glimmer of resurgence in the Lok Sabha election, where the MVA had managed to inflict a surprise defeat on the Mahayuti. And yet, within four months, this victory proved a mirage for the MVA as the Mahayuti, learning from its mistakes, inflicted a body blow on the opposition in the Assembly polls.


The MVA’s fragility was evident from its inception. What united its constituents was less a shared ideology and more a shared enmity towards the BJP. The Congress, with its centrist and ‘secular’ credentials, was always an uneasy bedfellow for Thackeray’s Sena (UBT). The politically astute Sharad Pawar acted as the glue holding the coalition together, but even his influence could not resolve simmering tensions within the alliance.


Disputes over candidate selection and campaign strategy, not to mention complacency, had accentuated schisms within the MVA in the run-up to the Assembly polls. A foretaste of this discord had surfaced in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election as well, as evinced in the particularly acrimonious spat between the Sena (UBT) and the Congress over the Sangli seat.


The alliance’s inability to project a coherent and unified message also cost it dearly at the polls. Voters were left unconvinced by a partnership that appeared to be more focused on keeping the BJP at bay than on delivering governance.


Its collapse is a cautionary tale for opposition forces across India. Alliances forged solely to counter a dominant political force are unlikely to endure without a cohesive vision for governance. For now, Maharashtra’s opposition landscape lies in disarray.

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