Fractured Alliance

The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), forged in the intrigue-filled aftermath of the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) out of power, is now unravelling under the weight of its contradictions. The unlikely partnership of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) [and later the NCP (SP)], was always a shotgun marriage of convenience than a coalition bound by any shared vision. Now, after its catastrophic showing in the 2024 Assembly elections, the cracks that have long existed in this political arrangement are now too deep to ignore.

By its recent decision to contest all upcoming urban local body and Zilla Parishad elections independently, the Sena (UBT) has been the first to openly acknowledge what many have long suspected: the alliance is no longer viable. Uddhav’s faction has realized that remaining shackled to the MVA could alienate its cadre and erode its base further, especially as the Sena (UBT) prepares for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election – a critical lifeline for the party and the Thackeray clan which has held sway over the cash-rich civic body for over three decades now.

In the Assembly polls last year, the MVA’s combined tally of 46 seats was eclipsed even by the 57 seats won by the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction, let alone the BJP’s 154. This was despite a glimmer of resurgence in the Lok Sabha election, where the MVA had managed to inflict a surprise defeat on the Mahayuti. And yet, within four months, this victory proved a mirage for the MVA as the Mahayuti, learning from its mistakes, inflicted a body blow on the opposition in the Assembly polls.

The MVA’s fragility was evident from its inception. What united its constituents was less a shared ideology and more a shared enmity towards the BJP. The Congress, with its centrist and ‘secular’ credentials, was always an uneasy bedfellow for Thackeray’s Sena (UBT). The politically astute Sharad Pawar acted as the glue holding the coalition together, but even his influence could not resolve simmering tensions within the alliance.

Disputes over candidate selection and campaign strategy, not to mention complacency, had accentuated schisms within the MVA in the run-up to the Assembly polls. A foretaste of this discord had surfaced in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election as well, as evinced in the particularly acrimonious spat between the Sena (UBT) and the Congress over the Sangli seat.

The alliance’s inability to project a coherent and unified message also cost it dearly at the polls. Voters were left unconvinced by a partnership that appeared to be more focused on keeping the BJP at bay than on delivering governance.

Its collapse is a cautionary tale for opposition forces across India. Alliances forged solely to counter a dominant political force are unlikely to endure without a cohesive vision for governance. For now, Maharashtra’s opposition landscape lies in disarray.