Fractured Nation

The scorched earth of Rakhine, in the shadow of the Arakan Army, serves as a grisly tableau of Myanmar’s unravelling state.

The latest airstrike by Myanmar’s military junta, killing 28 people (including nine children) adds another harrowing chapter to a conflict with far-reaching geopolitical ramifications. This time, the victims were family members of junta soldiers, detained by the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group that has emerged as a dominant force in the region.

The airstrike, which devastated a temporary detention site in Mrauk-U Township, underscores both the junta’s disregard for civilian life and the Arakan Army’s ascendancy in Myanmar’s power structure. As the AA consolidates its grip over much of Rakhine, the state’s descent into chaos highlights the broader fragmentation of Myanmar since the military coup in February 2021, which toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government.

The Arakan Army, a Rakhine Buddhist ethnic armed organization, has become a most potent force, displacing Myanmar’s military, or Tatmadaw, from most of Rakhine. It now controls 14 of the state’s 17 townships, leaving the Tatmadaw clinging to coastal outposts like Sittwe, Kyaukpyu and Munaung. The AA’s dominance extends to neighbouring Chin state, with the capture of Paletwa. From these strongholds, the group appears to be establishing a de facto independent administration under the United League of Arakan, its political wing.

The AA’s strategic gains are no mere local triumph. By seizing the Tatmadaw’s Western Command Headquarters and advancing toward key weapons manufacturing hubs in central Myanmar, the group is undermining the junta’s military-industrial complex. Its control of the border with Bangladesh has made Rakhine the first fully rebel-held frontier in Myanmar, setting a dangerous precedent for other ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).

Bangladesh, already overwhelmed by the Rohingya refugee crisis and its own internal political turmoil, now faces incursions by the AA, raising fears of a direct confrontation between Dhaka and the Arakan Army.

India, too, is watching the situation with growing alarm. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, a crucial corridor connecting Kolkata to India’s northeast via Rakhine, hangs in the balance. For New Delhi, the AA’s control over Rakhine poses a dual threat: the potential derailment of its infrastructure investments and the spectre of Chinese influence filling any power vacuum.

China, for its part, has already intervened to broker ceasefires between the junta and various EAOs, seeking to protect its economic and strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly in the resource-rich Shan state. But Beijing’s efforts have done little to stabilize Rakhine.

The region has long been a flashpoint, from the colonial-era marginalization of ethnic minorities to the military’s violent campaigns against the Rohingya, culminating in a genocide that forced nearly a million people to flee to Bangladesh in 2017.

The AA’s present ascendancy has been buoyed by a rare unity among Myanmar’s EAOs, which have joined forces with the predominantly Bamar People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) to resist the junta. This alliance marks a departure from Myanmar’s fractious ethnic landscape, where competing interests have often undermined collective action.

The AA’s rise also reveals the Tatmadaw’s weakness. Besieged on multiple fronts, the junta has resorted to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery bombardments, tactics that have only deepened popular resistance. Over 3.5 million people have been displaced since the coup, and the United Nations warns of an impending famine in Rakhine as fighting disrupts commerce and agriculture.

The AA’s victories may herald a new era for Rakhine, but they pose uncomfortable questions for the region. An emboldened Arakan Army could embolden other EAOs, further eroding Myanmar’s territorial integrity.

Western sanctions against the junta have failed to weaken its grip, while ASEAN’s mediation efforts have been toothless. For the junta, the AA’s rise is a humiliating reminder of its diminishing control. For the people of Rakhine, who have borne the brunt of both state violence and rebel ambitions, liberation remains a distant dream. And for Myanmar as a whole, the conflict signals a slow, inexorable march toward disintegration.