Fragile Dawn

For the first time in two years, the guns in Gaza have fallen silent following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the United States and guaranteed by Egypt, Qatar and Turkiye. On Monday, as the last of 20 surviving Israeli hostages crossed the border into Israel and 1,968 Palestinian prisoners walked free, President Donald Trump hailed it as “a tremendous day for the Middle East.”

The American president has made a career out of declaring victory before the ink dries. His Sharm el-Sheikh declaration, signed with regional leaders, marks what he called “the historic dawn of a new Middle East.” That said, it is not entirely hyperbole. The deal ends a conflict that began with Hamas’s brutal October 7, 2023 assault on Israel, which killed more than 1,200 people and dragged the region into another round of bloodletting. Two years later, Gaza lies in ruins, its people traumatised and its rulers – Hamas - still armed and unrepentant.

Likewise, Israel, though pulling troops back to an agreed line inside Gaza, has not pledged a full withdrawal. The plan calls for Gaza to be jointly administered by a reformed Palestinian Authority alongside the West Bank and revives the long-moribund two-state solution as a pillar of U.S. policy. Trump’s blueprint guarantees Gazans a right to return and commits Washington to opposing any future Israeli annexation of West Bank territory.

Yet history offers reasons for caution. The Middle East has seen many such ‘historic dawns.’ Each has been followed by a familiar dusk of recriminations and relapse - Camp David, Oslo, the Abraham Accords. Every American president since Jimmy Carter has sought to reshape the region. All have discovered that peace in the Middle East is less an event than a process, and one littered with reversals.

Still, this agreement may mark the beginning of something different, not because it is perfect but because it reflects a new, unorthodox model of diplomacy. Trump’s peacemaking with his transactional stamp lacks the intricate choreography of past negotiations. Yet it has delivered what years of expert-led talks could not: an imperfect ceasefire, the release of hostages and a sliver of hope.

Even so, the hardest work lies ahead. Rebuilding Gaza will take decades; the U.N. estimates that clearing the rubble alone could take 20 years. The first phase of Trump’s 20-point plan which is securing the ceasefire and installing a transitional technocratic authority will test the patience and coordination of regional players. A peacekeeping force must be deployed, governance restored, and billions will have to be funnelled into reconstruction under the shadow of Hamas, which may fade but will not vanish.

The political map of the Middle East, like the physical one, remains scarred. But even a brittle calm is better than unending war. If the ceasefire becomes a foundation rather than a pause, it will mark a rare victory in a region that has known precious few.