top of page

By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Fragmented Fields

The century-old Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) faces an existential crisis as radical factions gain ground in volatile Punjab.

Shiromani Akali Dal
Punjab

The resignation of Sukhbir Singh Badal as president of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), a once-dominant political force, marks a watershed moment for the 104-year-old party currently navigating stormy political waters in the Punjab. While Badal’s departure is being interpreted as a course correction, it underscores the existential crisis facing the SAD as it struggles to reclaim its relevance in a rapidly evolving political landscape.


For decades, the SAD epitomized Sikh identity, championing the community’s political and cultural aspirations. Yet, under the stewardship of the Badal family, the party gradually alienated its core base. Its poor electoral performances in successive Assembly elections in 2017 and 2022 and the dismal results in successive Lok Sabha elections has laid bare the disillusionment of its traditional support base.


The erosion of the SAD’s influence can be traced to its perceived deviation from Sikh ‘panthic’ issues. Under Badal, the party appeared more concerned with consolidating dynastic power than adhering to its ideological roots. The pardon of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh in a 2007 blasphemy case, a decision taken during the SAD’s government tenure, provoked outrage within the Sikh community. The Akal Takht, Sikhism’s highest temporal authority, had declared Badal a tankhaiya (a person guilty of religious misconduct), demanding religious penance which he completed late last year.


Yet these attempts to seek forgiveness and restore credibility failed to resonate. The Badals’ influence has waned, creating space for radical voices and rebellious factions to fill the void.


The political turbulence in Punjab has emboldened hardliners and radical elements, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region. Amritpal Singh, the controversial preacher and pro-Khalistan advocate who is the MP from Khadoor Sahib, has launched a new political outfit along with MP Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa (the son of Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh) despite being incarcerated under the National Security Act. His supporters, leveraging social media platforms, have galvanized significant youth backing.


The victories of independent candidates, including Khalsa and Amritpal Singh in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections signal a significant shift that hardliners, long relegated to the periphery of Punjab politics, are now at the forefront.


Adding to the SAD’s woes, party rebels, unhappy with the leadership’s failure to fully implement directives from the Akal Takht, are deliberating on forming their own outfit. These developments threaten to further fragment the Akali vote bank, which had traditionally unified around panthic issues.


Simranjit Singh Mann, another hardliner and president of SAD (Amritsar), has also gained momentum, notably winning the Sangrur by-election in 2022. His calls for panthic gatherings to pursue Sikh sovereignty echo the ideology of Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, whose bitter and divisive legacy looms large in Punjab’s political memory.


The region’s political instability is rooted in decades of economic distress and social upheaval. The state, once synonymous with the Green Revolution, is grappling with stagnant agricultural growth, mounting farmer debt and a deepening drug crisis. These challenges have left its youth disillusioned, making them susceptible to radical ideologies.


The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) sweeping victory in the 2022 Assembly elections, securing 92 of 117 seats, hinted at an impulse for change. However, the AAP’s governance has done little to address Punjab’s systemic issues, leaving a political vacuum ripe for exploitation by both hardliners and SAD’s rivals.


The Akali Dal’s predicament is further complicated by its strained relationship with the BJP. The alliance, once a cornerstone of Punjab politics, collapsed over the contentious farm laws introduced by the Centre (later repealed). Rebuilding trust with rural voters, who form the backbone of the SAD’s support, is a monumental task.


Punjab’s fragmented political field today risks exacerbating communal tensions, undermining governance, and alienating the state from national mainstream politics. While the SAD seeks to reclaim its panthic identity, it faces fierce competition from radical elements and former allies turned rivals.

The onus is now on the Akalis to rise up to the challenge or risk ceding ground to newer, more radical players.

Comments

bottom of page