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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Congress’ solo path for ‘ideological survival’

Mumbai: The Congress party’s decision to contest the forthcoming BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections independently is being viewed as an attempt to reclaim its ideological space among the public and restore credibility within its cadre, senior leaders indicated. The announcement - made by AICC General Secretary Ramesh Chennithala alongside state president Harshwardhan Sapkal and Mumbai Congress chief Varsha Gaikwad - did not trigger a backlash from the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi...

Congress’ solo path for ‘ideological survival’

Mumbai: The Congress party’s decision to contest the forthcoming BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections independently is being viewed as an attempt to reclaim its ideological space among the public and restore credibility within its cadre, senior leaders indicated. The announcement - made by AICC General Secretary Ramesh Chennithala alongside state president Harshwardhan Sapkal and Mumbai Congress chief Varsha Gaikwad - did not trigger a backlash from the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners, the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT). According to Congress insiders, the move is the outcome of more than a year of intense internal consultations following the party’ dismal performance in the 2024 Assembly elections, belying huge expectations. A broad consensus reportedly emerged that the party should chart a “lone-wolf” course to safeguard the core ideals of Congress, turning140-years-old, next month. State and Mumbai-level Congress leaders, speaking off the record, said that although the party gained momentum in the 2019 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it was frequently constrained by alliance compulsions. Several MVA partners, they claimed, remained unyielding on larger ideological and political issues. “The Congress had to compromise repeatedly and soften its position, but endured it as part of ‘alliance dharma’. Others did not reciprocate in the same spirit. They made unilateral announcements and declared candidates or policies without consensus,” a senior state leader remarked. Avoid liabilities He added that some alliance-backed candidates later proved to be liabilities. Many either lost narrowly or, even after winning with the support of Congress workers, defected to Mahayuti constituents - the Bharatiya Janata Party, Shiv Sena, or the Nationalist Congress Party. “More than five dozen such desertions have taken place so far, which is unethical, backstabbing the voters and a waste of all our efforts,” he rued. A Mumbai office-bearer elaborated that in certain constituencies, Congress workers effectively propelled weak allied candidates through the campaign. “Our assessment is that post-split, some partners have alienated their grassroots base, especially in the mofussil regions. They increasingly rely on Congress workers. This is causing disillusionment among our cadre, who see deserving leaders being sidelined and organisational growth stagnating,” he said. Chennithala’s declaration on Saturday was unambiguous: “We will contest all 227 seats independently in the BMC polls. This is the demand of our leaders and workers - to go alone in the civic elections.” Gaikwad added that the Congress is a “cultured and respectable party” that cannot ally with just anyone—a subtle reference to the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which had earlier targeted North Indians and other communities and is now bidding for an electoral arrangement with the SS(UBT). Both state and city leaders reiterated that barring the BMC elections - where the Congress will take the ‘ekla chalo’ route - the MVA alliance remains intact. This is despite the sharp criticism recently levelled at the Congress by senior SS(UBT) leader Ambadas Danve following the Bihar results. “We are confident that secular-minded voters will support the Congress' fight against the BJP-RSS in local body elections. We welcome backing from like-minded parties and hope to finalize understandings with some soon,” a state functionary hinted. Meanwhile, Chennithala’s firm stance has triggered speculation in political circles about whether the Congress’ informal ‘black-sheep' policy vis-a-vis certain parties will extend beyond the BMC polls.

Friends turned Foes

Hun Sen’s betrayal of the Shinawatras reignites tensions on the Thai-Cambodian border, exposing the fragility of personal diplomacy and the unfinished business of history.

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It began, as it often does in Southeast Asia, with a mine and a leak. Five Thai soldiers were maimed by an explosive buried near the tangled, disputed border with Cambodia. By the following day, at least 15 civilians - mostly Thai - were dead while diplomatic ties had unravelled. Cambodia’s once-durable backchannel to Bangkok, forged through decades of Shinawatra diplomacy, lies in tatters. The proximate cause was a leaked phone call. The deeper reason lies in centuries of mistrust and the opportunism of two political dynasties playing for high stakes at home.


Relations between the two neighbours have always been uneasy. Their 800-kilometre border, carved by colonial cartographers and made murky by jungle and war, has been the site of recurrent skirmishes. The worst in recent memory came in 2008 and 2011, when artillery duels near the ancient Preah Vihear temple killed over 40 soldiers and civilians. Back then, saner heads prevailed quickly. But not this time.


The spark came in June when Hun Sen, Cambodia’s wily ex-premier and de facto regent to his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, published a phone call between himself and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. In the call, Paetongtarn, Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter, called him “uncle” and disparaged one of her own military commanders. The leak ignited nationalist fury in Thailand, embarrassed the Thai armed forces, and all but doomed Paetongtarn’s premiership. She has since been suspended, and the constitutional court is weighing her dismissal.


Why would Hun Sen sabotage a relationship that once served him well? The Shinawatras and Hun Sen go way back. When Thaksin was deposed by a coup in 2006, Cambodia offered him sanctuary. When his sister Yingluck suffered a similar fate in 2014, Phnom Penh again provided a safe haven for red-shirt loyalists. The rapport between the two political clans blurred the line between diplomacy and family ties, often bypassing formal institutions altogether. In 2020, Thai dissidents in Cambodia began disappearing - abducted, it was believed, by Thai agents with at least tacit Cambodian assent. Cambodian opposition figures, too, met grim ends on Thai soil.


Now that fragile pact has crumbled. Thaksin, newly returned from exile and weakened politically, could not shield his daughter from the fallout. Thai police have since begun probing Cambodian tycoons with ties to illicit online gambling and scam networks that Cambodia’s post-pandemic economy has come to rely on. Trade between the two countries has ground to a halt. Bangkok has expelled Cambodia’s ambassador and withdrawn its own. Hun Sen, in turn, has threatened to release documents allegedly proving that Thaksin insulted Thailand’s monarchy.


This personal falling out has escalated into a geopolitical crisis. Thailand’s ruling coalition is brittle and preoccupied with an economic slowdown and looming US tariffs. Paetongtarn’s suspension is only the latest blow. Cambodia, too, faces economic headwinds. Chinese tourists remain scarce, frightened off by horror stories of forced labour in scam compounds. Both nations desperately need stability. Neither is showing the maturity to deliver it.


That responsibility once fell to ASEAN, the ten-member regional bloc founded in 1967 with the express aim of preventing conflict between Southeast Asian neighbours. But ASEAN, perennially allergic to confrontation, has yet to intervene in any meaningful way.


Yet the strangest piece of this puzzle remains Hun Sen himself. The man who long played regional peacemaker has now set fire to a personal relationship that once defined Cambodia-Thailand diplomacy. Some speculate that Thailand’s crackdown on scam centres may have ruffled powerful interests in Phnom Penh. Others believe Thaksin’s bid to legalise gambling in Thailand threatens Cambodia’s own casino-driven economy.


Perhaps the answer is simpler. Hun Sen is nothing if not a survivor. Having handed power to his son, he may be seeking to bolster his own legacy as a nationalist stalwart. Burning Thaksin - no longer a kingmaker in Thailand - may cost him little and win him domestic plaudits. A calculated betrayal has once again put Hun Sen at the centre of regional intrigue.

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