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By:

Dr. V.L. Dharurkar

12 February 2025 at 2:53:17 pm

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints...

From Frost to Thaw

After years of diplomatic chill, India and Canada have attempted a strategic reset driven as much by geopolitics and trade anxieties as by a desire to repair a damaged partnership. For nearly three years relations between India and Canada resembled a prolonged winter. Yet, the visit of Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney to India at the start of the Month suggests that the thaw may finally have begun. If the past few years were marked by recrimination and mistrust, the present moment hints at a cautious but deliberate reset. Both sides have shown a keenness to replace acrimony with pragmatism. The chill began during the tenure of Justin Trudeau, whose government publicly alleged that Indian agents may have been involved in violent activities on Canadian soil. India rejected the accusations as unfounded and politically motivated. The dispute triggered tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, the freezing of high-level dialogue and an atmosphere of mutual suspicion. For two countries that had long prided themselves on democratic affinity, shared Commonwealth ties and large diaspora links, the rapid deterioration was remarkable. Canada is home to one of the world’s largest Indian diasporas, numbering well over a million people. Trade and educational links have grown steadily since the late twentieth century. Canadian universities attract tens of thousands of Indian students each year, while Indian professionals and entrepreneurs have contributed significantly to Canada’s economic life. These human connections had long acted as ballast in the relationship. But politics, as ever, can overwhelm social ties. Symbolic Weight Carney’s New Delhi visit therefore carries symbolic weight. A former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he has entered politics with a reputation for technocratic competence rather than ideological theatrics. His five-day visit to India, from late February to early March, was carefully choreographed to signal renewal. Beginning in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, he met industrialists, bankers and policymakers, emphasising economic cooperation as the cornerstone of the revived relationship. India today is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with ambitions to expand its industrial base, modernise infrastructure and transition towards cleaner sources of energy. Canada, meanwhile, possesses abundant natural resources, technological expertise and capital. The two economies are complementary in ways that diplomacy had recently obscured. One of the most notable outcomes of the visit was a long-term agreement on uranium supply. Canada’s mining giant Cameco and India’s Department of Atomic Energy concluded a ten-year deal worth roughly $2.6bn to supply more than 20m pounds of uranium. For India, which is expanding its civil nuclear programme to meet rising energy demand while limiting carbon emissions, reliable access to uranium is strategically important. The agreement will help fuel a new generation of small and medium reactors, which India sees as crucial to its energy transition. Canada, for its part, is among the world’s leading producers of uranium. Renewed nuclear cooperation therefore reflects not only diplomatic reconciliation but also the convergence of economic interests. Previous agreements between the two countries had faltered amid political tensions. This time both governments have emphasised implementation and timely delivery. Trade Boost Trade, too, looms large in the reset. Bilateral commerce between India and Canada currently hovers around $10bn to $12bn annually, a modest figure for economies of their scale. Both governments have spoken of raising that number dramatically, potentially to $50bn by the end of the decade. Negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), long stalled, have been revived with renewed urgency. Here global geopolitics provides an additional incentive. The increasingly protectionist trade policies of the United States under Donald Trump have unsettled many of Washington’s traditional partners. Tariff threats and economic nationalism have encouraged countries to diversify their commercial relationships. India and Canada, both heavily exposed to the American market, now see advantage in strengthening bilateral trade and investment as a hedge against volatility emanating from Washington. Education and innovation are another pillar of the renewed engagement. Canadian universities are exploring the possibility of establishing campuses in India, enabling Indian students to access Canadian education without leaving the country. Joint research programmes and technological collaboration are expected to deepen intellectual ties that already run deep. Beyond economics lies a broader strategic calculation. The Indo-Pacific has become the central theatre of twenty-first-century geopolitics. As China’s influence expands across Asia, many countries are seeking new partnerships to preserve a balance of power and maintain open sea lanes. India has positioned itself as a leading voice in this effort, promoting a vision of a free, stable and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Strategic Dynamics Canada, though geographically distant, has begun to pay greater attention to the region’s strategic dynamics. Collaboration with India could therefore form part of a wider network involving countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand. For Ottawa, engagement with New Delhi offers a way to remain relevant in Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape. For India, Canadian support adds another partner to its growing Indo-Pacific coalition. Yet enthusiasm should be tempered with realism. Diplomatic resets are easier to announce than to sustain. The political sensitivities that strained relations in the past have not vanished entirely. Canada’s domestic politics, particularly debates surrounding diaspora activism, remain complex. India, meanwhile, is unlikely to tolerate external criticism on matters it considers internal. Managing these differences will require careful diplomacy and mutual restraint. Nevertheless, the symbolism of the present moment matters. The revival of high-level dialogue, the signing of concrete economic agreements and the visible warmth between leaders all suggest a shared desire to turn the page. In the grand sweep of history, relations between India and Canada have always rested on deeper foundations than temporary political quarrels. If the current reset succeeds, it could transform a once-strained partnership into one of the more promising relationships in the Indo-Pacific era. (The writer is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)

From ‘Bimaru’ to Bharat’s Beacon

Once a byword for stagnation and lawlessness, Uttar Pradesh under the Yogi Adityanath-led govt. is repositioning itself as the country’s economic and governance powerhouse.

Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh

For decades, Uttar Pradesh bore the ignominious label of a ‘Bimaru’ (shorthand for Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) state, lagging behind in economic growth, infrastructure and governance. Crime, corruption and chronic underdevelopment had made Uttar Pradesh a cautionary tale of wasted potential. Today, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath claims to have reversed this narrative, transforming the state into an engine of economic growth, security and prosperity. His government’s report card, presented earlier this week, paints a picture of rapid transformation, though sceptics will argue that the real test lies beyond statistics.


Since coming to power in 2017, Adityanath has spearheaded Uttar Pradesh’s trajectory to emerge as India’s second-largest economy. This is no small ambition for a state that, before his tenure, was seen as an electoral prize rather than an investment destination.


One of the administration’s most emphatic claims is a dramatic improvement in law and order. While crime statistics are notoriously difficult to verify, but there is little doubt that the perception of lawlessness that once defined the state has changed. His hardline stance on crime - manifested in police encounters, a crackdown on gangsters and a muscular approach to governance - has drawn both both praise and criticism. Supporters argue that the strong-arm tactics have restored order, while critics warn of extrajudicial excesses that could erode democratic norms.


Beyond security, the economic revival of Uttar Pradesh is central to Adityanath’s pitch. The numbers tell a compelling story: food grain production has risen by 20 percent in the last eight years, unemployment has plummeted from 19 percent to 3 percent, and the state leads the country in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), boasting 96 lakh such units. The One-District-One-Product (ODOP) scheme, aimed at revitalising traditional industries, has helped exports surge from Rs. 86,000 crore to over Rs. 2 lakh crore. These are impressive figures, yet the question remains how much is a function of short-term incentives and subsidies?


Adityanath’s government claims to have revived the sugarcane industry with prompt payments and quadrupled ethanol production, aligning with India’s renewable energy push. However, farmers still grapple with unpredictable monsoons and market volatility.


The government’s social welfare initiatives have also been significant. Over six crore people have been lifted out of poverty, according to official claims, and 15 crore residents have received free rations for five consecutive years. The long-term economic viability of these schemes, however, remains uncertain. As India transitions towards a more market-driven welfare model, Uttar Pradesh’s ability to sustain such large-scale handouts without compromising fiscal discipline will be crucial.


Perhaps the most striking transformation has been in infrastructure and digital governance. Direct benefit transfers (DBT) worth Rs. 10 lakh crore have been made, cutting out middlemen and reducing leakages. The ‘Safe City’ initiative, featuring over 11 lakh CCTV cameras, has enhanced urban security.


Education and employment, two long-standing weak points for Uttar Pradesh, have also seen significant investment. The state has added 10 new state universities and 21 private universities, expanded vocational training, and pushed digital inclusion through tablet and smartphone distribution. Whether these measures translate into improved learning outcomes and job readiness is another matter. India’s demographic dividend depends on skill development, not just degree production.


Adityanath’s emphasis on cultural nationalism is another defining feature of his tenure. He has fused governance with an overt promotion of ‘Sanatan culture,’ aligning himself closely with the ideological core of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Maha Kumbh in Prayagraj, a spiritual mega-event that saw unprecedented logistical efficiency, is often cited as an example of this blend of governance and cultural assertion. Critics alleged this represents an exclusionary model of development that prioritises religious symbolism over pluralism. Supporters, however, say it is a long-overdue reclamation of Uttar Pradesh’s historical identity.


For now, Uttar Pradesh’s transformation is a political triumph for the BJP, reinforcing Adityanath’s status as a key player in national politics. The question is whether he can sustain this momentum?

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