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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Fugitive Justice

After years on the run, Mehul Choksi, the diamond dealer-turned-fugitive at the heart of one of India’s most egregious banking scandals, has been arrested in Belgium. The 65-year-old is a key accused in the Rs. 13,500 crore Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud case that rocked India’s financial system in 2018. His arrest is a rare diplomatic success for Indian authorities in a saga marked by financial chicanery, sluggish extradition battles and gaping regulatory failures.


Choksi had been conveniently living in Antigua and Barbuda as a citizen since 2018 after fleeing India. His arrival in Belgium last year, reportedly for cancer treatment, had attracted little public attention until now. That his wife holds Belgian citizenship may have eased his travel, but not his fate. India has wasted no time with both the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) pressing for his extradition.


The task is not impossible. India has a functioning extradition treaty with Belgium, dating back to 1901. The treaty operates on the principle of ‘dual criminality,’ which is that a person can be extradited if the alleged offence is punishable in both countries. Financial fraud, of course, qualifies. But success is far from guaranteed.


India’s recent track record in pursuing high-profile economic offenders has been dismal. Nirav Modi, Choksi’s nephew and a co-accused in the PNB scam, has fought a protracted legal battle against extradition from the United Kingdom, where he has remained since 2018. Vijay Mallya, the former Kingfisher Airlines boss accused of defaulting on loans and money laundering, continues to stall his return despite an extradition order. In both cases, India has been ensnared by the procedural thickets of British courts, and by arguments about prison conditions, political persecution and judicial independence.


Belgium’s treaty has similar escape valves. It bars extradition in cases deemed political or if the accused can argue persecution. Choksi has previously claimed that he is the target of a politically motivated witch-hunt, a narrative he used when he mysteriously vanished from Antigua in 2021 and ended up in Dominica, alleging he had been abducted.


This time, Indian authorities must build an airtight case and ensure his prosecution stands up to judicial scrutiny abroad. But even if Choksi returns to face trial, justice must go further. The alleged fraud was colossal: Choksi is accused of siphoning over Rs. 6,000 crore and Nirav Modi another Rs. 7,000 crore. Today, the realisable value of Choksi’s assets stands closer to Rs. 2,500 crore.


Beyond extradition, what is needed is restitution. The defrauded sums must be returned to their rightful owners, public sector banks and, by extension, Indian taxpayers. That means faster trials, sharper asset recovery mechanisms and more transparency about where the money goes. It also means plugging the regulatory holes that allowed such frauds to flourish in the first place. Justice will only be served when not just the fugitives, but the system that enabled them, is held to account.

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