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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 4:59:11 pm

MLC polls expose cracks in Mahayuti, MVA

AI Generated Image Mumbai: The upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) elections for the graduate and teacher constituencies have laid bare the deep-seated fissures within both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances. In a significant development that could have far-reaching political implications, multiple rebel candidates, including prominent figures with strong party affiliations, have defied alliance dictates to file their nominations as...

MLC polls expose cracks in Mahayuti, MVA

AI Generated Image Mumbai: The upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council (MLC) elections for the graduate and teacher constituencies have laid bare the deep-seated fissures within both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances. In a significant development that could have far-reaching political implications, multiple rebel candidates, including prominent figures with strong party affiliations, have defied alliance dictates to file their nominations as independents, setting the stage for high-stakes, multi-cornered contests. Mahayuti Turmoil The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is grappling with rebellion on multiple fronts. In the critical Nagpur Graduates constituency, a traditional BJP stronghold, former BJP MLC and Nagpur Mayor Anil Sole has thrown a spanner in the works by filing his nomination as an independent candidate. This move directly challenges the official BJP candidate, Sudhakar Kohale. While the BJP leadership, including state president Ravindra Chavan, has attempted to downplay the situation, asserting that Sole has been "pacified," the former MLC's actions tell a different story. Sole's decision to contest independently is particularly significant given his long-standing association with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and his previous stint as a BJP MLC from the very same constituency. The situation is equally complicated in the Amravati Teachers constituency. The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) has officially fielded Kiran Sarnaik. However, adding to the confusion, Sangita Shinde, sister of BJP MP Anil Bonde, has also entered the fray, potentially splitting the Mahayuti vote. The opposition MVA is also facing its share of internal discord here. While the Congress has nominated Aditi Pohre, daughter of former minister Harshvardhan Deshmukh, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Dattatray Lahane. The presence of numerous candidates representing various teachers' organizations further complicates the electoral arithmetic in this constituency. Opposition Rebellion The Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar Graduates constituency has witnessed another surprise development. While the NCP's sitting MLC, Satish Chavan, was widely considered the frontrunner, the BJP's M.K. Deshmukh has unexpectedly filed his nomination as a rebel candidate, catching the Mahayuti leadership completely off guard. The MVA, too, is facing rebellion in this constituency. Although the seat was officially allocated to the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Dilip Ghuge has also filed his nomination, causing significant heartburn within the opposition alliance. The Pune constituencies present a microcosm of the larger alliance troubles. In the Pune Graduates constituency, the BJP has fielded Dr. Smita Jadhav, the daughter-in-law of Pratap Singh Jadhav, owner of the 'Pudhari' news group and niece of Congress leader Satej Patil. Adding intrigue to this contest is the fact that she is contesting against Harshada Deshmukh-Jadhav, the official candidate of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). However, the real drama is unfolding in the Pune Teachers constituency. The BJP's official candidate, Koustubh Gawde, is facing a formidable challenge from Mangesh Chiwate, a close confidant of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Chiwate, a former journalist who handled the CM's medical aid cell while Shinde was the CM, has claimed that his party leadership has provided him with the crucial 'AB' form, signaling official backing. Commenting on the chaotic situation, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis acknowledged that seat-sharing talks remained inconclusive in some areas but expressed hope that the alliance partners would eventually reach an agreement. The true picture of the electoral battlefield will only emerge after Friday, October 9th, the last date for the withdrawal of nominations. Until then, both alliances will be working overtime to contain the rebellions and present a united front, but the deep cracks exposed by these developments suggest that the upcoming MLC elections will be fiercely contested and highly unpredictable.

Gold Prices Signal Strong 2026 Outlook

Writer: Ibrahim Patel
Ibrahim Patel
Dec 25, 2025
3 min read

An AI bubble meltdown may push investors away from equities and into gold, while a softer dollar and low rates provide foundational support for price gains.

Gold has reached once-unthinkable prices at USD 4,468 per troy ounce (31.1347 grams) in 2025, gaining over 72.25 per cent this year as of 23 December 2025. Due to record-high prices in the international market, there is reduced interest in spot buying in the Indian bullion market.


In Mumbai, bullion dealers are offering gold at a 1 per cent discount on international market prices, at the all-time high price of Rs 137,000 per 10 grams, excluding 3 per cent GST.Looking ahead to 2026, major themes that carried the gold price to new heights this year will continue to underwrite its trajectory in the months ahead, boosting the metal even further.


Goldman Sachs sees gold prices climbing 14 per cent to USD 4,900 by December 2026 in its base case, it said in a note on Thursday, while citing upside risks to this view due to a potential expansion of diversification to private investors.


Safe-Haven Demand

Its views on commodities for 2026: Goldman Sachs said it expects structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to lift the price of gold. It continues to recommend long exposure in the yellow metal. Strong gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and central bank purchases are projected to continue into next year as investors, particularly in the West, increasingly recognise the hedge value of gold.


Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the WGC, said, “I think the performance of gold (in 2025) speaks volumes about the global perspective on risk and uncertainty. My sense is that we're going to continue to see these challenges in 2026.”


Risk Factor

This will translate into continued strong ETF flows and central bank demand for the monetary metal for 2026, although central bank buying may come at a slower pace than in the past few years. Another potential 2026 tailwind for gold is a correction in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Analysts are increasingly warning that this could happen, and it's possible that AI bubble meltdown concerns may push more investors away from equities and into gold in the coming year. Bank of America Global Research told its clients in late October that gold may be one of the strongest hedges if the AI bubble bursts.


“Optimists buy tech, pessimists buy gold, and hedgers buy both.” The uncertainty generated by Trump’s tariffs is beginning to slow down world trade, which has negative consequences for the AI sector. That will be the thing that ends up popping (the AI bubble). The gold price has an inverse relationship with the US dollar and real interest rates. Analysts forecast a weaker dollar and lower rates by mid-2026. A softer dollar and a low-rate environment would provide foundational support for further gold price gains.


The resulting inflation is expected to push the Fed toward quantitative easing (QE), or the purchasing of government bonds to increase money supply and lower long-term rates, which would further bolster the yellow metal's appeal.Global financial services firm Morgan Stanley sees demand for gold from ETFs and central banks pushing the gold price back up above USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-2026. The World Gold Council (WGC) also expects the themes of risk and uncertainty to continue driving gold. Overall, most analysts' gold price predictions for the upcoming year are in the USD 4,500 to USD 5,000 range.


(The writer is a commodities researcher-cum-analyst. Views personal.)


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