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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

India's multi-align diplomacy triumphs

New Delhi: West Asia has transformed into a battlefield rained by fireballs. Seas or land, everywhere echoes the roar of cataclysmic explosions, flickering flames, and swirling smoke clouds. et amid such adversity, Indian ships boldly waving the Tricolour navigate the strait undeterred, entering the Arabian Sea. More remarkably, Iran has sealed its airspace to global flights but opened it for the safe evacuation of Indians.   This scene evokes Prime Minister Narendra Modi's memorable 2014...

India's multi-align diplomacy triumphs

New Delhi: West Asia has transformed into a battlefield rained by fireballs. Seas or land, everywhere echoes the roar of cataclysmic explosions, flickering flames, and swirling smoke clouds. et amid such adversity, Indian ships boldly waving the Tricolour navigate the strait undeterred, entering the Arabian Sea. More remarkably, Iran has sealed its airspace to global flights but opened it for the safe evacuation of Indians.   This scene evokes Prime Minister Narendra Modi's memorable 2014 interview. He stated that "there was a time when we counted waves from the shore; now the time has come to take the helm and plunge into the ocean ourselves."   In a world racing toward conflict, Modi has proven India's foreign policy ranks among the world's finest. Guided by 'Nation First' and prioritising Indian safety and interests, it steadfastly embodies  'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' , the world as one family.   Policy Shines Modi's foreign policy shines with such clarity and patience that even as war flames engulf West Asian nations, Indians studying and working there return home safe. In just 13 days, nearly 100,000 were evacuated from Gulf war zones, mostly by air, some via Armenia by road. PM Modi talked with Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian to secure Iran's airspace for the safe evacuation of Indians, a privilege denied to any other nation. Additionally, clearance was granted for Indian ships carrying crude oil and LPG to pass safely through the Hormuz Strait. No other country's vessels are navigating these waters, except for those of Iran's ally, China. The same strategy worked in the Ukraine-Russia war: talks with both presidents ensured safe corridors, repatriating over 23,000 students and businessmen. Iran, Israel, or America, all know India deems terrorism or war unjustifiable at any cost. PM Modi amplified anti-terror campaigns from UN to global platforms, earning open support from many nations.   Global Powerhouse Bolstered by robust foreign policy and economic foresight, India emerges as a global powerhouse, undeterred by tariff hurdles. Modi's adept diplomacy yields notable successes. Contrast this with Nehru's era: wedded to Non-Aligned Movement, he watched NAM member China seize vast Ladakh territory in war. Today, Modi's government signals clearly, India honors friends, spares no foes. Abandoning non-alignment, it embraces multi-alignment: respecting sovereignties while prioritizing human welfare and progress. The world shifts from unipolar or bipolar to multipolar dynamics.   Modi's policy hallmark is that India seal defense deals like the S-400 and others with Russia yet sustains US friendship. America bestows Legion of Merit; Russia, its highest civilian honor, Order of St. Andrew the Apostle. India nurtures ties with Israel, Palestine, Iran via bilateral talks. Saudi Arabia stands shoulder-to-shoulder across fronts; UAE trade exceeds $80 billion. UN's top environment award, UNEP Champions of the Earth, graces India, unlike past when foreign nations campaigned against us on ecological pretexts.   This policy's triumph roots in economic empowerment. India now ranks the world's fourth-largest economy, poised for third in 1-2 years. The 2000s dubbed it 'fragile'; then-PM economist Dr. Manmohan Singh led. Yet  'Modinomics'  prevailed. As COVID crippled supply chains, recession loomed, inflation soared and growth plunged in developed countries,  Modinomics  made India the 'bright star.' Inflation stayed controlled, growth above 6.2 per cent. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas praised it, advising the world to learn from India.

Gold Prices Signal Strong 2026 Outlook

An AI bubble meltdown may push investors away from equities and into gold, while a softer dollar and low rates provide foundational support for price gains.

Gold has reached once-unthinkable prices at USD 4,468 per troy ounce (31.1347 grams) in 2025, gaining over 72.25 per cent this year as of 23 December 2025. Due to record-high prices in the international market, there is reduced interest in spot buying in the Indian bullion market.


In Mumbai, bullion dealers are offering gold at a 1 per cent discount on international market prices, at the all-time high price of Rs 137,000 per 10 grams, excluding 3 per cent GST.Looking ahead to 2026, major themes that carried the gold price to new heights this year will continue to underwrite its trajectory in the months ahead, boosting the metal even further.


Goldman Sachs sees gold prices climbing 14 per cent to USD 4,900 by December 2026 in its base case, it said in a note on Thursday, while citing upside risks to this view due to a potential expansion of diversification to private investors.


Safe-Haven Demand

Its views on commodities for 2026: Goldman Sachs said it expects structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to lift the price of gold. It continues to recommend long exposure in the yellow metal. Strong gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and central bank purchases are projected to continue into next year as investors, particularly in the West, increasingly recognise the hedge value of gold.


Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the WGC, said, “I think the performance of gold (in 2025) speaks volumes about the global perspective on risk and uncertainty. My sense is that we're going to continue to see these challenges in 2026.”


Risk Factor

This will translate into continued strong ETF flows and central bank demand for the monetary metal for 2026, although central bank buying may come at a slower pace than in the past few years. Another potential 2026 tailwind for gold is a correction in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Analysts are increasingly warning that this could happen, and it's possible that AI bubble meltdown concerns may push more investors away from equities and into gold in the coming year. Bank of America Global Research told its clients in late October that gold may be one of the strongest hedges if the AI bubble bursts.


“Optimists buy tech, pessimists buy gold, and hedgers buy both.” The uncertainty generated by Trump’s tariffs is beginning to slow down world trade, which has negative consequences for the AI sector. That will be the thing that ends up popping (the AI bubble). The gold price has an inverse relationship with the US dollar and real interest rates. Analysts forecast a weaker dollar and lower rates by mid-2026. A softer dollar and a low-rate environment would provide foundational support for further gold price gains.


The resulting inflation is expected to push the Fed toward quantitative easing (QE), or the purchasing of government bonds to increase money supply and lower long-term rates, which would further bolster the yellow metal's appeal.Global financial services firm Morgan Stanley sees demand for gold from ETFs and central banks pushing the gold price back up above USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-2026. The World Gold Council (WGC) also expects the themes of risk and uncertainty to continue driving gold. Overall, most analysts' gold price predictions for the upcoming year are in the USD 4,500 to USD 5,000 range.


(The writer is a commodities researcher-cum-analyst. Views personal.)


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