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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Hardline Architect of America’s China Policy

Updated: Jan 27, 2025

America’s China Policy

Marco Rubio’s swearing-in as Secretary of State has marked a decisive shift in U.S. foreign policy. An unapologetically hardline figure in American diplomacy in regard to China, Rubio, a former Florida senator, promptly convened a key meeting with the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan—the Indo-Pacific Quad—reaffirming their commitment to regional stability and cooperation. The timing and significance of the meeting was clear: with Rubio at the helm of the State Department, combating China’s growing influence will remain high on the agenda.


In contrast to his predecessors, who often sought diplomatic engagement or détente with Beijing, Rubio has shown little patience for such approaches. His remarks at his confirmation hearing, dubbing China “the most potent, dangerous, and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted,” only served to cement his uncompromising stance on the ‘Red Dragon.’ His past as a ‘China hawk’ in the Senate has made him a prominent critic of Beijing’s human rights abuses and territorial ambitions, and it has earned him sanctions from the Chinese government—an indication of how seriously he is taken in Beijing.


For India, his appointment comes as a strategic boon. Rubio’s unwavering stance on China aligns closely with India’s strategic interests. As China continues to challenge India militarily and assert territorial claims in the South China Sea, Rubio’s hardline approach provides India with a robust diplomatic ally.


The Quad itself has evolved significantly over the years. What started as a humanitarian coalition in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami now serves as a critical counterbalance to China’s expansion in the region. Rubio’s early and enthusiastic support for the Quad reaffirms his commitment to strengthening India’s position in a region increasingly dominated by Beijing.


In contrast to previous Secretaries of State, such as Rex Tillerson or Mike Pompeo, Rubio brings an entirely different set of priorities. Tillerson, with his business background, often emphasized engagement and stability in U.S.-China relations, a course that aligned with the broader goals of President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy. Pompeo, while critical of China, was also inclined toward maintaining traditional diplomatic engagement with other global powers. Rubio, however, operates in a much more polarized geopolitical landscape. His tenure will likely be marked by more direct confrontations with Beijing - on trade, military aggression, and human rights - creating a clear distinction from his predecessors.


In his first speech as Secretary of State, Rubio made it clear that U.S. foreign policy would be guided by the imperative of national interest. This blunt focus on America’s self-interest might be seen as a departure from more multilateral, diplomatic efforts that characterized the post-Cold War period. But for India, this could mean greater support and security assurances in the face of Chinese aggression. Rubio’s commitment to regional allies, especially India, is a promise to bolster democratic institutions in Asia, while ensuring that Beijing is kept at bay.


Under the Trump administration, the Quad has evolved into a more robust partnership, aimed not just at countering China but also at fostering a long-term economic and security framework. Rubio’s leadership ensures that the U.S. will continue to be an active player in the Quad, pushing for initiatives that challenge China’s economic and territorial dominance.


Yet, while his hardline stance on China is clearly beneficial for India’s interests, Rubio faces challenges at home. His appointment comes amid a period of significant restructuring at the State Department, with many career diplomats being forced to resign to make room for Trump’s appointees. While Rubio has praised the work of the department, the political and bureaucratic upheaval is likely to colour his diplomatic approach in ways that could affect not just relations with China, but with traditional U.S. allies.


In the coming months, Rubio’s leadership will redefine the U.S.’s role on the world stage. For India, it is a chance to fortify its position as a key player in the Indo-Pacific. Rubio’s combative stance on China offers both a strategic opportunity and a diplomatic alignment that India has long sought. In this new era of American diplomacy, Rubio’s unwavering commitment to confronting China could prove to be the linchpin in reshaping global alliances, with India set to emerge as one of the primary beneficiaries of his leadership.

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