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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Hardline Architect of America’s China Policy

Updated: Jan 27, 2025

America’s China Policy

Marco Rubio’s swearing-in as Secretary of State has marked a decisive shift in U.S. foreign policy. An unapologetically hardline figure in American diplomacy in regard to China, Rubio, a former Florida senator, promptly convened a key meeting with the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan—the Indo-Pacific Quad—reaffirming their commitment to regional stability and cooperation. The timing and significance of the meeting was clear: with Rubio at the helm of the State Department, combating China’s growing influence will remain high on the agenda.


In contrast to his predecessors, who often sought diplomatic engagement or détente with Beijing, Rubio has shown little patience for such approaches. His remarks at his confirmation hearing, dubbing China “the most potent, dangerous, and near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted,” only served to cement his uncompromising stance on the ‘Red Dragon.’ His past as a ‘China hawk’ in the Senate has made him a prominent critic of Beijing’s human rights abuses and territorial ambitions, and it has earned him sanctions from the Chinese government—an indication of how seriously he is taken in Beijing.


For India, his appointment comes as a strategic boon. Rubio’s unwavering stance on China aligns closely with India’s strategic interests. As China continues to challenge India militarily and assert territorial claims in the South China Sea, Rubio’s hardline approach provides India with a robust diplomatic ally.


The Quad itself has evolved significantly over the years. What started as a humanitarian coalition in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami now serves as a critical counterbalance to China’s expansion in the region. Rubio’s early and enthusiastic support for the Quad reaffirms his commitment to strengthening India’s position in a region increasingly dominated by Beijing.


In contrast to previous Secretaries of State, such as Rex Tillerson or Mike Pompeo, Rubio brings an entirely different set of priorities. Tillerson, with his business background, often emphasized engagement and stability in U.S.-China relations, a course that aligned with the broader goals of President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy. Pompeo, while critical of China, was also inclined toward maintaining traditional diplomatic engagement with other global powers. Rubio, however, operates in a much more polarized geopolitical landscape. His tenure will likely be marked by more direct confrontations with Beijing - on trade, military aggression, and human rights - creating a clear distinction from his predecessors.


In his first speech as Secretary of State, Rubio made it clear that U.S. foreign policy would be guided by the imperative of national interest. This blunt focus on America’s self-interest might be seen as a departure from more multilateral, diplomatic efforts that characterized the post-Cold War period. But for India, this could mean greater support and security assurances in the face of Chinese aggression. Rubio’s commitment to regional allies, especially India, is a promise to bolster democratic institutions in Asia, while ensuring that Beijing is kept at bay.


Under the Trump administration, the Quad has evolved into a more robust partnership, aimed not just at countering China but also at fostering a long-term economic and security framework. Rubio’s leadership ensures that the U.S. will continue to be an active player in the Quad, pushing for initiatives that challenge China’s economic and territorial dominance.


Yet, while his hardline stance on China is clearly beneficial for India’s interests, Rubio faces challenges at home. His appointment comes amid a period of significant restructuring at the State Department, with many career diplomats being forced to resign to make room for Trump’s appointees. While Rubio has praised the work of the department, the political and bureaucratic upheaval is likely to colour his diplomatic approach in ways that could affect not just relations with China, but with traditional U.S. allies.


In the coming months, Rubio’s leadership will redefine the U.S.’s role on the world stage. For India, it is a chance to fortify its position as a key player in the Indo-Pacific. Rubio’s combative stance on China offers both a strategic opportunity and a diplomatic alignment that India has long sought. In this new era of American diplomacy, Rubio’s unwavering commitment to confronting China could prove to be the linchpin in reshaping global alliances, with India set to emerge as one of the primary beneficiaries of his leadership.

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