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By:

Amey Chitale

28 October 2024 at 5:29:02 am

Growth Without Fireworks

The Budget leans on tourism, technology, trade calibration and fiscal discipline to anchor growth amid global uncertainty Mumbai: The new budget positions tourism as a key driver of jobs, forex earnings, and local growth. Incentives will back indigenous seaplane manufacturing through a Seaplane VGF Scheme, while a new National Institute of Hospitality will strengthen academia-industry-government linkages. A pilot programme will upskill 10,000 guides at 20 iconic sites with IIM collaboration,...

Growth Without Fireworks

The Budget leans on tourism, technology, trade calibration and fiscal discipline to anchor growth amid global uncertainty Mumbai: The new budget positions tourism as a key driver of jobs, forex earnings, and local growth. Incentives will back indigenous seaplane manufacturing through a Seaplane VGF Scheme, while a new National Institute of Hospitality will strengthen academia-industry-government linkages. A pilot programme will upskill 10,000 guides at 20 iconic sites with IIM collaboration, and a National Destination Digital Knowledge Grid will document cultural and heritage sites. Heritage tourism will be enhanced with experiential upgrades at 15 archaeological sites, and new projects will expand the Buddhist circuit in the northeast. Seven High-Speed Rail corridors will serve as sustainable ‘growth connectors,’ boosting mobility and linking emerging hubs. Software services, IT-enabled services, KPO, and contract R&D are consolidated under ‘Information Technology Services’ with a uniform safe harbour margin of 15.5 percent. The safe harbour threshold rises from Rs. 300 crore to Rs. 2,000 crore, easing compliance for mid-sized firms. To spur investment in critical infrastructure, a tax holiday until 2047 is offered to foreign companies delivering global cloud services via Indian data centres, provided domestic customers are served through Indian resellers. This landmark measure positions modern data centres as central pillars of India’s digital economy and future growth. Key Reforms Income tax rates remain steady but introduces key compliance reforms. TCS on foreign travel and education is reduced to 2 percent, and TDS rules for manpower services have been simplified. Taxpayers can now file Form 15G/15H directly through depositories, easing coordination. Penalty provisions are de-criminalised, with many shifted to late fees. While broader capital gains rationalisation was anticipated, relief comes through treating buyback proceeds as capital gains, lowering the tax burden for recipients. Trade-friendly customs duty reforms find place instead changes rather than sweeping reforms. The duty-free import limit for seafood export inputs rises from 1 percent to 3 percent of turnover, with similar relief extended to shoe uppers. Exporters of leather, textiles, and footwear gain flexibility as the export period is extended to one year. To encourage domestic value addition in consumer electronics, specified parts for microwave oven manufacturing are now exempted. The recommendations of 16th Finance Commission have been accepted by the centre which recommended 41 percent devolution. Budget 2026 reaffirms the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation while safeguarding social priorities. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline from 56.1 percent in 2025–26 to 55.6 percent in 2026–27, freeing resources for priority spending by lowering interest outgo. The fiscal deficit target has been met at 4.4 percent of GDP in 2025–26 and is estimated to further ease to 4.3 percent in 2026–27, in line with the path toward a 50±1 percent debt-to-GDP ratio by 2030–31. Revised estimates for 2025–26 place non-debt receipts at Rs. 34 trillion and expenditure at Rs. 49.6 trillion, including Rs. 11 trillion in capital outlay. For 2026–27, receipts are projected at Rs. 36.5 trillion and expenditure at Rs. 53.5 trillion, with net tax receipts of Rs. 28.7 trillion. The government is banking on higher RBI dividends and higher disinvestment receipts. Fiscal deficit financing will hinge on Rs. 11.7 trillion in net market borrowings, supplemented by small savings and other sources, with gross borrowings at Rs. 17 trillion. Successful execution will decide if the budget’s ambitions become reality. This year’s strategy favours actions over numbers, consolidating and reinforcing the ecosystem instead of chasing headline reforms. Amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility, it prioritises stability and durable growth over quick wins - less a Sehwag-style first-ball six, more a Rahul Dravid innings: deliberate, resilient, and built for the long haul.

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Imran Khan, once hailed as Pakistan’s most charismatic and resilient leader now finds himself in a position unprecedented for a man of his stature.

The former Prime Minister of Pakistan, once known for his unyielding spirit and fierce determination, now shows signs of strain. Imprisoned and facing numerous charges, Khan appears to be a shadow of the leader who once inspired millions.

Khan’s recent meeting with journalists revealed a man who is a shell of his former self. Once confident and commanding, his body now shows a sense of unease and agitation. Those who met him describe a waning spirit, a stark change for a leader once known for his steadfastness in adversity.

The journalists described Khan as a man who is aware that his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is losing its once-iron grip on the nation’s imagination―a realisation that visibly shook him.

The PTI, once a magnet for massive crowds and inspired loyalty among its supporters, is now struggling. The much-hyped rally scheduled for August 22 in Islamabad, was embarrassingly cancelled due to a lack of public interest. Khan, in a bid to save face, claimed that the rally was called off to avoid potential violence. In a sign of growing desperation, Khan rescheduled the rally for September 8 and directed his party leaders to overcome any obstacles. This defiant stance is typical of Khan’s confrontational style, and his public directives highlight his insecurity about his party’s ability to mobilise support.

While Khan outwardly appears calm and composed, the multiple cases against him and his time in jail have left him isolated and struggling with loneliness. Even in this difficult situation, he remains in the headlines, thanks to his uncanny ability to stay in the public’s eye. Khan recently made headlines by applying for the University of Oxford Chancellorship, a move initially dismissed as a rumor but confirmed by his spokesman, Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari. As an Oxford alumnus, Khan would be the first Asian to take the role. Many see this bid as a strategic play to leverage his international profile against Pakistan’s establishment, a move that has kept him prominently in the media spotlight.

The political landscape in Pakistan is deeply divided. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, in his second term, has failed to address critical issues including unemployment, soaring inflation, and deteriorating law and order. His administration’s inability to deliver on its promises has only deepened the public’s disillusionment, leading to growing nostalgia for Khan’s past leadership.

Shahbaz Sharif’s government is a source of frustration for the Pakistani people and a cause for concern for the country’s military. Historically, the military has shaped Pakistan’s political trajectory, stepping in when civilian governments falter. The military reportedly is growing uneasy about the government’s performance especially Sharif’s inability to stabilize the country and mend relationships with key neighbors, particularly India. Additionally, its deteriorating ties with Afghanistan and Iran have left Pakistan increasingly isolated. Even China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s policies, a worrying sign given the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the country’s economic future.

It is within this context of political turmoil and international isolation that Imran Khan remains a potent force. Despite his legal troubles and the challenges facing his party, Khan’s popularity endures. For millions of Pakistanis, his tenure as Prime Minister is seen as a time of relative stability and hope, a stark contrast to the current administration’s ineptitude. This perception has kept Khan’s political base intact, even as his party faces an uphill battle in the coming months.

However, Khan’s ability to navigate the current political landscape is far from guaranteed. The PTI’s diminishing support, coupled with the increasing pressure from the establishment, raises questions about Khan’s long-term strategy. His recent moves, including the application for the Oxford Chancellorship, suggest a leader willing to explore unconventional avenues to maintain his relevance. But whether these tactics will translate into a successful political comeback remains to be seen.

Pakistan’s political future is more uncertain than ever. Imran Khan’s journey from cricketing legend to political maverick has been extraordinary. Still, as he faces the toughest challenge of his career, the question remains: Can he once again defy the odds and reclaim his place at the helm of Pakistani politics, or is this the beginning of the end for a once unstoppable leader?

Khan’s story is a testament to the complexities of power and the unpredictable nature of political life in Pakistan. His rise, driven by charisma, populism, and a genuine desire for change, now faces the realities of personal and political challenges, raising the possibility that his time may be running out.

Imran Khan is a beacon of hope for his supporters, and a polarizing figure for detractors, whose ambitions have often clouded his judgment. As the nation watches, the world is left to wonder: What will Imran Khan’s next move be? And more importantly, what does it mean for the future of Pakistan? The coming months will be critical not only for Imran Khan but for Pakistan as a whole. The decisions made during this period will shape the country’s trajectory for years. Whether Khan emerges victorious or is consigned to the annals of history as a fallen leader, one thing is certain: The story of Imran Khan is far from over.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Islamabad. Views personal)

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