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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the...

Battered Modi govt faces ultimate alliance test

A CJP supporter celebrates in Nagpur on Saturday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: For only the second time in its 12-year tenure, the Modi government has been forced to bow down. The dramatic resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is not just a cabinet reshuffle; it marks the climax of a gruelling political standoff that has left the ruling dispensation visibly wounded. What began as a student outcry over exam irregularities morphed into a massive siege, exposing cracks in the government's much-touted armour of invincibility. Now, as the dust settles at Jantar Mantar, the corridors of power in Delhi are whispering about a larger, more existential threat. The true challenge for the BJP no longer lies on the streets, but within the ranks of its own National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners. ​Critics and political analysts are drawing sharp parallels between this student-led movement and the farmers' agitation from a few years ago. There is a strong sentiment within government circles that, much like the Kisan protests, which faced allegations of being fuelled by foreign funding, this current uprising did not stem entirely from a genuine, organic grassroots genesis. Instead, political observers note the presence of organized anarchist elements that quickly capitalised on the national outrage. ​This time, these elements appeared far stronger, and in stark contrast, the establishment looked surprisingly weak and reactive. The ultimate giveaway of the movement's broader political ambitions came moments after Pradhan stepped down. Abhijeet Dipke, the face of the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), declared from the protest stage that the resignation was merely the "first wicket". This cricket analogy was a thinly veiled political declaration, making it amply clear that the underlying agenda of the protests extends far beyond education reforms, aiming directly at a regime change. Dipke’s words guarantee that the agitation, in some form or another, will continue. Tactical Victory ​To its credit, the government did manage a tactical victory by keeping the protesters' demands strictly focused on Pradhan's resignation. By doing so, they prevented the narrative from entirely engulfing the top leadership. However, the strategic damage to the ruling party has been catastrophic. The Modi administration has spent over a decade cultivating an image of a stubborn, decisive, and unyielding force that does not cave to public pressure. That image has now taken a severe, perhaps irreversible, beating. ​ During negotiations with activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, the government had already made it amply clear that it was actively considering Pradhan's exit. Yet, it inexplicably took almost a week to finally pull the plug and end the standoff. This delay highlights the enormity of the internal challenges and a creeping paralysis within the highest echelons of power. The establishment was likely suffering from a deep-seated complacency, overconfidently assuming the agitation would naturally fizzle out. It took more than 20 days of Wangchuk's hunger strike to finally shatter that hubris and force Delhi’s hand. ​ When juxtaposed with the last four major national agitations—stretching all the way from the Ram Mandir movement to the Anna Hazare anti-corruption crusade—the government's handling of this crisis stands out as an anomaly. The use of police force and state machinery remained remarkably minimal this time around. Despite this restrained approach, the reputational blow the government has suffered appears to be the maximum it has ever faced. A government that prides itself on immense strength is now being perceived as vulnerable. Political Mileage ​In the battle for political mileage, the opposition naturally tried to swoop in. The Congress party and Rahul Gandhi made concerted efforts to hijack the momentum mid-way, attempting to paint the movement in their own political colours. But the youth on the streets fiercely guarded their independence. The ultimate credit for bringing the government to its knees has squarely gone to Dipke. He emerged as the undisputed architect of the victory, leaving the traditional political opposition watching from the sidelines. Real Quake ​But the real political earthquake is yet to be measured. The government's bruised image sets the stage for its toughest political test yet. A weakened BJP center immediately alters the power dynamics within the NDA. The regional satraps and political allies who prop up the Modi government are watching closely. They have witnessed the ruling party blink, and they have seen that the mighty center can be forced into submission. ​ The immediate future of this administration now hinges completely on how these allies interpret this vulnerability. Will they demand larger portfolios? Will they force policy rollbacks of their own? The script for the next act of this high-stakes political play will not be written by the opposition, nor by the activists on the streets. It will be authored by the NDA allies who sit inside the government. For the Modi administration, the real crisis has only just begun. Prahlad Joshi appointed as Education Minister Union Minister Prahlad Joshi has been appointed as Education Minister following Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation from the post on Saturday. Joshi has been given additional charge of the Education Ministry besides his role as Consumer Affairs Minister. A Rashtrapati Bhavan communique said the President, as advised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has accepted the resignation of Pradhan with immediate effect. It said that on the advice of the Prime Minister, the President has directed that Joshi, Cabinet Minister, be assigned the charge of the Ministry of Education, in addition to his own duties. Earlier in the day, Pradhan resigned from his post following the Cockroach Janta Party-led student protests across the country, demanding his ouster over the NEET paper leak controversy. Pradhan said it is not a matter of "individual prestige" for him and he is disturbed to see the series of events that have unfolded in the last 10 days.

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Imran Khan, once hailed as Pakistan’s most charismatic and resilient leader now finds himself in a position unprecedented for a man of his stature.

The former Prime Minister of Pakistan, once known for his unyielding spirit and fierce determination, now shows signs of strain. Imprisoned and facing numerous charges, Khan appears to be a shadow of the leader who once inspired millions.

Khan’s recent meeting with journalists revealed a man who is a shell of his former self. Once confident and commanding, his body now shows a sense of unease and agitation. Those who met him describe a waning spirit, a stark change for a leader once known for his steadfastness in adversity.

The journalists described Khan as a man who is aware that his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is losing its once-iron grip on the nation’s imagination―a realisation that visibly shook him.

The PTI, once a magnet for massive crowds and inspired loyalty among its supporters, is now struggling. The much-hyped rally scheduled for August 22 in Islamabad, was embarrassingly cancelled due to a lack of public interest. Khan, in a bid to save face, claimed that the rally was called off to avoid potential violence. In a sign of growing desperation, Khan rescheduled the rally for September 8 and directed his party leaders to overcome any obstacles. This defiant stance is typical of Khan’s confrontational style, and his public directives highlight his insecurity about his party’s ability to mobilise support.

While Khan outwardly appears calm and composed, the multiple cases against him and his time in jail have left him isolated and struggling with loneliness. Even in this difficult situation, he remains in the headlines, thanks to his uncanny ability to stay in the public’s eye. Khan recently made headlines by applying for the University of Oxford Chancellorship, a move initially dismissed as a rumor but confirmed by his spokesman, Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari. As an Oxford alumnus, Khan would be the first Asian to take the role. Many see this bid as a strategic play to leverage his international profile against Pakistan’s establishment, a move that has kept him prominently in the media spotlight.

The political landscape in Pakistan is deeply divided. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, in his second term, has failed to address critical issues including unemployment, soaring inflation, and deteriorating law and order. His administration’s inability to deliver on its promises has only deepened the public’s disillusionment, leading to growing nostalgia for Khan’s past leadership.

Shahbaz Sharif’s government is a source of frustration for the Pakistani people and a cause for concern for the country’s military. Historically, the military has shaped Pakistan’s political trajectory, stepping in when civilian governments falter. The military reportedly is growing uneasy about the government’s performance especially Sharif’s inability to stabilize the country and mend relationships with key neighbors, particularly India. Additionally, its deteriorating ties with Afghanistan and Iran have left Pakistan increasingly isolated. Even China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s policies, a worrying sign given the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the country’s economic future.

It is within this context of political turmoil and international isolation that Imran Khan remains a potent force. Despite his legal troubles and the challenges facing his party, Khan’s popularity endures. For millions of Pakistanis, his tenure as Prime Minister is seen as a time of relative stability and hope, a stark contrast to the current administration’s ineptitude. This perception has kept Khan’s political base intact, even as his party faces an uphill battle in the coming months.

However, Khan’s ability to navigate the current political landscape is far from guaranteed. The PTI’s diminishing support, coupled with the increasing pressure from the establishment, raises questions about Khan’s long-term strategy. His recent moves, including the application for the Oxford Chancellorship, suggest a leader willing to explore unconventional avenues to maintain his relevance. But whether these tactics will translate into a successful political comeback remains to be seen.

Pakistan’s political future is more uncertain than ever. Imran Khan’s journey from cricketing legend to political maverick has been extraordinary. Still, as he faces the toughest challenge of his career, the question remains: Can he once again defy the odds and reclaim his place at the helm of Pakistani politics, or is this the beginning of the end for a once unstoppable leader?

Khan’s story is a testament to the complexities of power and the unpredictable nature of political life in Pakistan. His rise, driven by charisma, populism, and a genuine desire for change, now faces the realities of personal and political challenges, raising the possibility that his time may be running out.

Imran Khan is a beacon of hope for his supporters, and a polarizing figure for detractors, whose ambitions have often clouded his judgment. As the nation watches, the world is left to wonder: What will Imran Khan’s next move be? And more importantly, what does it mean for the future of Pakistan? The coming months will be critical not only for Imran Khan but for Pakistan as a whole. The decisions made during this period will shape the country’s trajectory for years. Whether Khan emerges victorious or is consigned to the annals of history as a fallen leader, one thing is certain: The story of Imran Khan is far from over.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Islamabad. Views personal)

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