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By:

Commodore S.L. Deshmukh

31 October 2024 at 3:00:19 am

Silent Leviathans in Asia’s Deepening Undersea Rivalry

China’s march into autonomous undersea warfare is reshaping the Indo-Pacific and forcing India to respond in kind. China is quietly transforming the ocean depths into a new theatre of strategic competition. Its rapid advances in unmanned and autonomous underwater vehicles (UUVs/AUVs) now extend to the development of so-called ‘extra-extra-large’ platforms - autonomous submarines longer than 40 metres, comparable in size to conventional diesel boats, yet unencumbered by human crews. Designed...

Silent Leviathans in Asia’s Deepening Undersea Rivalry

China’s march into autonomous undersea warfare is reshaping the Indo-Pacific and forcing India to respond in kind. China is quietly transforming the ocean depths into a new theatre of strategic competition. Its rapid advances in unmanned and autonomous underwater vehicles (UUVs/AUVs) now extend to the development of so-called ‘extra-extra-large’ platforms - autonomous submarines longer than 40 metres, comparable in size to conventional diesel boats, yet unencumbered by human crews. Designed for long-endurance missions, these machines are intended to roam the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and, in theory, even the approaches to America’s west coast. Operating without crews and often without clear attribution, such systems blur the line between surveillance and attack, peace and provocation. In contested waters, even their presence - detected or suspected - can impose caution, delay decision-making, and erode deterrence. Steel Shadows Intelligence assessments suggest that China is testing several of these XXLUUVs, including platforms such as the AJX-002, fitted with pump-jet propulsion and optimised for precise, low-noise operations. Freed from the constraints of life-support systems, such vessels can devote their internal volume to fuel, batteries, sensors and weapons. Ranges of more than 10,000 nautical miles are plausible, allowing them to loiter for weeks or months at a time. Their mission set is expansive. They can lay mines, deploy smaller drones, conduct intelligence and surveillance, transport special-operations divers, or strike targets using torpedoes and missile systems launched from standard tubes. Communications can be maintained through satellites, buoys or long-range acoustic links, enabling remote supervision from shore or from surface vessels.   Past confrontations in the South China Sea, including territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, highlight the strategic leverage that even a handful of advanced platforms can provide in contested waters.   Floating Docks Recent trials around Hainan in the South China Sea underline the seriousness of the programme. Two new uncrewed submarines have reportedly been based near Sanya, China’s principal hub for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. Unlike earlier extra-large UUVs that were craned in and out of the water, the newest and biggest platforms are housed in dedicated floating docks. One such dock, Zhuan Yong Fu Chuan Wu 001 (built as recently as 2024) can sail to sea, deploy or recover UUVs, and shield them from prying eyes in congested ports. The infrastructure supporting these systems is as telling as the platforms themselves. Purpose-built floating docks signal that China is planning for routine, sustained operations of autonomous submarines, not sporadic trials. This suggests a doctrinal shift in which unmanned systems are expected to operate alongside, and eventually ahead of, crewed naval assets. By easing handling and reducing exposure during launch and recovery, these docks make routine operations of giant autonomous submarines far more practical. They also hint at an ambition to integrate such systems into regular naval deployments rather than treat them as experimental curiosities. The strategic implications are unsettling. Low-risk, high-endurance undersea platforms could complicate American and allied naval dominance in the Pacific, threaten shipping lanes, and add a new layer of uncertainty to the Indian Ocean. An accelerated undersea arms race looks increasingly inevitable. For regional navies, the challenge lies in detection rather than destruction. Autonomous submarines are quieter, harder to track, and politically less escalatory to deploy than manned vessels. Their proliferation could therefore lower the threshold for undersea competition, even as it raises the risks of miscalculation. India is not standing still. Confronted by China’s expanding naval footprint and by Chinese-enabled Pakistani capabilities, the Indian Navy has pushed ahead with its own unmanned-systems agenda. In line with its broader Aatmanirbhar Bharat doctrine, the emphasis has shifted from imported solutions to indigenous design and production. A flagship programme launched in 2024 aims to field a dozen extra-large UUVs for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, anti-submarine warfare and mine countermeasures, with prototypes expected within two to three years. The Defence Research and Development Organisation is also working on AI-driven underwater drone swarms and man-portable autonomous vehicles for mine clearance. Private firms, notably Larsen & Toubro, have expanded their role in meeting these requirements. Alongside unmanned platforms, the navy is strengthening its broader undersea defences: commissioning Arnala-class shallow-water anti-submarine craft, fitting frontline ships with the Mareech advanced torpedo-defence system, and partnering with firms such as Sagar Defence Engineering on autonomous surface vessels and maritime robotics. A three-layered approach to maritime domain awareness - air, surface and underwater - is steadily taking shape. Yet gaps remain. Critical sensors, subsystems and materials are still imported, leaving India dependent on foreign suppliers in some of the most sensitive technologies. India’s task is thus not only technological but institutional. Integrating unmanned systems into fleet operations, doctrine and command structures will require a cultural shift within a navy long oriented towards crewed platforms. Closing those gaps will be essential if India is to counter China’s silent leviathans on equal terms. (The author is a retired naval aviation officer and defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Imran Khan, once hailed as Pakistan’s most charismatic and resilient leader now finds himself in a position unprecedented for a man of his stature.

The former Prime Minister of Pakistan, once known for his unyielding spirit and fierce determination, now shows signs of strain. Imprisoned and facing numerous charges, Khan appears to be a shadow of the leader who once inspired millions.

Khan’s recent meeting with journalists revealed a man who is a shell of his former self. Once confident and commanding, his body now shows a sense of unease and agitation. Those who met him describe a waning spirit, a stark change for a leader once known for his steadfastness in adversity.

The journalists described Khan as a man who is aware that his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is losing its once-iron grip on the nation’s imagination―a realisation that visibly shook him.

The PTI, once a magnet for massive crowds and inspired loyalty among its supporters, is now struggling. The much-hyped rally scheduled for August 22 in Islamabad, was embarrassingly cancelled due to a lack of public interest. Khan, in a bid to save face, claimed that the rally was called off to avoid potential violence. In a sign of growing desperation, Khan rescheduled the rally for September 8 and directed his party leaders to overcome any obstacles. This defiant stance is typical of Khan’s confrontational style, and his public directives highlight his insecurity about his party’s ability to mobilise support.

While Khan outwardly appears calm and composed, the multiple cases against him and his time in jail have left him isolated and struggling with loneliness. Even in this difficult situation, he remains in the headlines, thanks to his uncanny ability to stay in the public’s eye. Khan recently made headlines by applying for the University of Oxford Chancellorship, a move initially dismissed as a rumor but confirmed by his spokesman, Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari. As an Oxford alumnus, Khan would be the first Asian to take the role. Many see this bid as a strategic play to leverage his international profile against Pakistan’s establishment, a move that has kept him prominently in the media spotlight.

The political landscape in Pakistan is deeply divided. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, in his second term, has failed to address critical issues including unemployment, soaring inflation, and deteriorating law and order. His administration’s inability to deliver on its promises has only deepened the public’s disillusionment, leading to growing nostalgia for Khan’s past leadership.

Shahbaz Sharif’s government is a source of frustration for the Pakistani people and a cause for concern for the country’s military. Historically, the military has shaped Pakistan’s political trajectory, stepping in when civilian governments falter. The military reportedly is growing uneasy about the government’s performance especially Sharif’s inability to stabilize the country and mend relationships with key neighbors, particularly India. Additionally, its deteriorating ties with Afghanistan and Iran have left Pakistan increasingly isolated. Even China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s policies, a worrying sign given the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the country’s economic future.

It is within this context of political turmoil and international isolation that Imran Khan remains a potent force. Despite his legal troubles and the challenges facing his party, Khan’s popularity endures. For millions of Pakistanis, his tenure as Prime Minister is seen as a time of relative stability and hope, a stark contrast to the current administration’s ineptitude. This perception has kept Khan’s political base intact, even as his party faces an uphill battle in the coming months.

However, Khan’s ability to navigate the current political landscape is far from guaranteed. The PTI’s diminishing support, coupled with the increasing pressure from the establishment, raises questions about Khan’s long-term strategy. His recent moves, including the application for the Oxford Chancellorship, suggest a leader willing to explore unconventional avenues to maintain his relevance. But whether these tactics will translate into a successful political comeback remains to be seen.

Pakistan’s political future is more uncertain than ever. Imran Khan’s journey from cricketing legend to political maverick has been extraordinary. Still, as he faces the toughest challenge of his career, the question remains: Can he once again defy the odds and reclaim his place at the helm of Pakistani politics, or is this the beginning of the end for a once unstoppable leader?

Khan’s story is a testament to the complexities of power and the unpredictable nature of political life in Pakistan. His rise, driven by charisma, populism, and a genuine desire for change, now faces the realities of personal and political challenges, raising the possibility that his time may be running out.

Imran Khan is a beacon of hope for his supporters, and a polarizing figure for detractors, whose ambitions have often clouded his judgment. As the nation watches, the world is left to wonder: What will Imran Khan’s next move be? And more importantly, what does it mean for the future of Pakistan? The coming months will be critical not only for Imran Khan but for Pakistan as a whole. The decisions made during this period will shape the country’s trajectory for years. Whether Khan emerges victorious or is consigned to the annals of history as a fallen leader, one thing is certain: The story of Imran Khan is far from over.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Islamabad. Views personal)

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