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By:

Parashram Patil

14 January 2026 at 8:49:45 pm

Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover

India’s sugar crisis is less about one bad season than about the uneasy trade-offs between food, fuel, water and farm incomes India’s latest sugar-price shock is a reminder that agricultural markets rarely obey the neat logic of supply and demand. Retail sugar prices surged towards Rs. 62–Rs. 67 a kilogram before easing after government intervention. But the episode exposes a deeper problem: India is asking its sugar economy to serve too many objectives at once - support farmers, supply...

Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover

India’s sugar crisis is less about one bad season than about the uneasy trade-offs between food, fuel, water and farm incomes India’s latest sugar-price shock is a reminder that agricultural markets rarely obey the neat logic of supply and demand. Retail sugar prices surged towards Rs. 62–Rs. 67 a kilogram before easing after government intervention. But the episode exposes a deeper problem: India is asking its sugar economy to serve too many objectives at once - support farmers, supply consumers, produce ethanol, conserve water and compete globally. The immediate squeeze was caused by several forces arriving together. Domestic sugar production fell short of initial expectations after erratic monsoons, waterlogging and uneven rainfall affected major cane-growing regions. At the same time, the rapid expansion of the E20 ethanol programme has diverted more cane juice and heavy molasses towards distilleries and away from sugar production. Ethanol is an important component of India’s energy strategy, but every tonne of cane redirected towards fuel has implications for the availability of sweeteners. Inventory Troubles Then came the inventory problem. Closing stocks fell to multi-year lows just as festive and wedding-season demand began to rise. Bulk consumers accumulated supplies, while speculative holding added to the pressure. What began as a supply squeeze therefore became a confidence problem, amplified by expectations of further scarcity. The familiar response is to intervene. Yet abrupt export restrictions, emergency duty-free imports and changes in release quotas may calm prices today while making investment decisions harder tomorrow. The real requirement is not less government, but better government: one that anticipates shortages rather than reacting to them. India needs a real-time sugar intelligence system combining satellite-based weather information, actual mill yields and independently verified inventory data. Policy makers should know much earlier whether the crop is heading for a surplus or deficit. Ethanol procurement prices should also be calibrated against minimum domestic sugar-reserve requirements. Energy security should not accidentally become food-price insecurity. The problem is particularly acute in Maharashtra, one of India’s great sugar-producing states. Its cooperative sugar belts demonstrate both the strengths and limitations of the traditional model. Government intervention has historically shaped cane prices, mill operations and monthly sugar releases. Some regulation remains necessary, especially where millions of farmers depend on the industry. But rigid controls can also discourage efficiency and innovation. Mills need greater operational flexibility, accompanied by transparent safeguards for consumers and growers. Water Woes Water is the harder question. Sugarcane is a thirsty crop, and its intensive cultivation in semi-arid regions creates an uncomfortable contradiction: a crop that provides livelihoods and supports an enormous processing ecosystem can also consume resources that are increasingly scarce. Maharashtra cannot indefinitely treat water-intensive cane cultivation as though water were unlimited. The answer is not to abandon sugarcane, but to grow it more intelligently. Precision irrigation, including micro- and subsurface-drip systems, can reduce wastage and ease pressure on groundwater. Farmers also need greater encouragement to diversify, adopt climate-resilient varieties and use mixed-cropping systems. Lower chemical dependence and better soil management can reduce input costs while making farms more resilient to erratic weather. Environmental management must extend beyond water. Pre-harvest burning releases smoke, toxic gases and fine ash, imposing costs on local air quality. Mechanised green-cane harvesting and better management of crop residue offer a route towards cleaner production without sacrificing agricultural productivity. The larger opportunity lies in moving India’s sugar industry up the value chain. India has the land, processing capacity and cooperative infrastructure to become a global leader. But leadership cannot mean simply producing more bulk sugar and seeking overseas markets whenever domestic stocks permit. Indian mills and farmer organisations should capture more of the value created after the cane leaves the field. Farmer-producer organisations and cooperatives can participate more deeply in ethanol derivatives, cogenerated power, refined and specialty sugars and other downstream products. Traceability and sustainable production could help Indian sugar command better prices in premium international markets. None of this will work without predictable trade policy. Exporters cannot build reliable global businesses if the rules change abruptly whenever domestic prices rise. Nor can farmers make long-term planting decisions when the economics of their crop are repeatedly altered by administrative intervention. India needs a sugar policy that thinks several seasons ahead. For Maharashtra and the rest of the country’s sugar economy, that means better data, smarter water use, predictable trade rules, more diversified farms and greater value addition. (The writer is a member of Maharashtra Agriculture Price Commission. Views personal.)

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Imran Khan’s Fall from Grace

Imran Khan, once hailed as Pakistan’s most charismatic and resilient leader now finds himself in a position unprecedented for a man of his stature.

The former Prime Minister of Pakistan, once known for his unyielding spirit and fierce determination, now shows signs of strain. Imprisoned and facing numerous charges, Khan appears to be a shadow of the leader who once inspired millions.

Khan’s recent meeting with journalists revealed a man who is a shell of his former self. Once confident and commanding, his body now shows a sense of unease and agitation. Those who met him describe a waning spirit, a stark change for a leader once known for his steadfastness in adversity.

The journalists described Khan as a man who is aware that his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is losing its once-iron grip on the nation’s imagination―a realisation that visibly shook him.

The PTI, once a magnet for massive crowds and inspired loyalty among its supporters, is now struggling. The much-hyped rally scheduled for August 22 in Islamabad, was embarrassingly cancelled due to a lack of public interest. Khan, in a bid to save face, claimed that the rally was called off to avoid potential violence. In a sign of growing desperation, Khan rescheduled the rally for September 8 and directed his party leaders to overcome any obstacles. This defiant stance is typical of Khan’s confrontational style, and his public directives highlight his insecurity about his party’s ability to mobilise support.

While Khan outwardly appears calm and composed, the multiple cases against him and his time in jail have left him isolated and struggling with loneliness. Even in this difficult situation, he remains in the headlines, thanks to his uncanny ability to stay in the public’s eye. Khan recently made headlines by applying for the University of Oxford Chancellorship, a move initially dismissed as a rumor but confirmed by his spokesman, Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari. As an Oxford alumnus, Khan would be the first Asian to take the role. Many see this bid as a strategic play to leverage his international profile against Pakistan’s establishment, a move that has kept him prominently in the media spotlight.

The political landscape in Pakistan is deeply divided. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, in his second term, has failed to address critical issues including unemployment, soaring inflation, and deteriorating law and order. His administration’s inability to deliver on its promises has only deepened the public’s disillusionment, leading to growing nostalgia for Khan’s past leadership.

Shahbaz Sharif’s government is a source of frustration for the Pakistani people and a cause for concern for the country’s military. Historically, the military has shaped Pakistan’s political trajectory, stepping in when civilian governments falter. The military reportedly is growing uneasy about the government’s performance especially Sharif’s inability to stabilize the country and mend relationships with key neighbors, particularly India. Additionally, its deteriorating ties with Afghanistan and Iran have left Pakistan increasingly isolated. Even China, Pakistan’s longstanding ally, has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s policies, a worrying sign given the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the country’s economic future.

It is within this context of political turmoil and international isolation that Imran Khan remains a potent force. Despite his legal troubles and the challenges facing his party, Khan’s popularity endures. For millions of Pakistanis, his tenure as Prime Minister is seen as a time of relative stability and hope, a stark contrast to the current administration’s ineptitude. This perception has kept Khan’s political base intact, even as his party faces an uphill battle in the coming months.

However, Khan’s ability to navigate the current political landscape is far from guaranteed. The PTI’s diminishing support, coupled with the increasing pressure from the establishment, raises questions about Khan’s long-term strategy. His recent moves, including the application for the Oxford Chancellorship, suggest a leader willing to explore unconventional avenues to maintain his relevance. But whether these tactics will translate into a successful political comeback remains to be seen.

Pakistan’s political future is more uncertain than ever. Imran Khan’s journey from cricketing legend to political maverick has been extraordinary. Still, as he faces the toughest challenge of his career, the question remains: Can he once again defy the odds and reclaim his place at the helm of Pakistani politics, or is this the beginning of the end for a once unstoppable leader?

Khan’s story is a testament to the complexities of power and the unpredictable nature of political life in Pakistan. His rise, driven by charisma, populism, and a genuine desire for change, now faces the realities of personal and political challenges, raising the possibility that his time may be running out.

Imran Khan is a beacon of hope for his supporters, and a polarizing figure for detractors, whose ambitions have often clouded his judgment. As the nation watches, the world is left to wonder: What will Imran Khan’s next move be? And more importantly, what does it mean for the future of Pakistan? The coming months will be critical not only for Imran Khan but for Pakistan as a whole. The decisions made during this period will shape the country’s trajectory for years. Whether Khan emerges victorious or is consigned to the annals of history as a fallen leader, one thing is certain: The story of Imran Khan is far from over.

(The writer is a senior jounalist based in Islamabad. Views personal)

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