India’s Future Needs a Stronger Scientific Spine

India may have overtaken Japan in GDP, but sustaining the lead demands scientific depth.

India’s ascent to become the fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan in nominal GDP, marks a symbolic milestone. It reflects the combined success of market reforms, demographic leverage, digital transformation, and entrepreneurial drive. Yet, this achievement must be seen not as a destination but a crossroad. The future demands not just growth in size, but in substance. And globally, that substance has always been science and technology.

History shows clearly: nations that reached and retained economic leadership did so by leading in science.

The United States dominated the 20th century not merely through capitalism, but through unmatched achievements in both basic and applied sciences. From the transistor to the internet, its economic might was backed by scientific depth. Germany’s success rests on engineering precision and vibrant research–industry link. Japan’s disciplined innovation in technology made it the world’s second-largest economy by the 1980s. China’s rapid rise has been fuelled by aggressive R&D investments and state-backed high-tech expansion in semiconductors, AI and manufacturing.

India, in contrast, has reached this rank largely due to services-led growth, IT exports, and consumption. These engines have performed well, but they cannot power the next level of transformation. If we aim to rise further and remain there, we cannot rely on episodic successes in space, pharma, or fintech. We need deep structural strength, not isolated spikes.

So, what will it take? First, a strong and sustained investment in science. India’s R&D spending has hovered around 0.7 percent of GDP for years—well below South Korea (4.9 percent), China (2.4 percent) and even Brazil. In 2022, India had just 262 researchers per million people compared to over 7,000 in Israel and 4,000 in the U.S. These gaps signal not just lower investment, but limited national capacity to generate, absorb, and deploy new knowledge.

The Anusandhan National Research Foundation (ANRF) is a promising step, but its success hinges on sustained funding, transparent grants, and support for both basic and applied research. Impactful ideas must be prioritized. Public–private partnerships, especially in biotech, energy, and space, should be streamlined. India’s education system also needs reform. Despite elite institutions like IITs and IISc, the broader system suffers from poor learning outcomes and weak industry links. Science education must shift from rote learning to foster creativity, critical thinking, and interdisciplinary skills.

One path forward is to transform state universities into regional innovation hubs. These should actively collaborate with MSMEs and local industry to solve real-world problems. Faculty must be evaluated not just by publications, but also by mentorship and community impact. Vocational training should incorporate technologies like AI, robotics, and clean energy to create a workforce of blue-collar technologists.

Third, we must push our industrial base toward high-value manufacturing. As of 2022, high-tech sectors made up under 10 percent of India’s manufacturing, far behind South Korea (30 percent) and China (20 percent). Despite national efforts like Make in India, we still depend heavily on imports for electronics, defence and solar tech.

To change this, India must create technology clusters linking labs, startups, manufacturers, and training institutes. These hubs should offer shared infrastructure—prototyping labs, regulatory support and IP services. Taiwan’s Hsinchu Science Park is a successful model. Our semiconductor and deep-tech missions must adapt such models to Indian realities.

Fourth, we must ensure economic growth improves well-being. Though India’s GDP is now higher than Japan’s, our per capita income is only about $2,700 as compared to Japan’s $33,000. Growth is not meaningful if it does not translate to individual prosperity. Population stabilization, though politically sensitive, is critical.

India’s total fertility rate is declining, but unevenly across states. A voluntary, rights-based approach like those in Thailand and Bangladesh can help. Focus should be on educating girls, ensuring reproductive health services and spreading awareness of the economic benefits of smaller families. Population control must empower, not coerce.

Fifth, we need a cultural shift that values original thinking and institutional integrity. While innovation is celebrated, the system often suppresses dissent and rewards conformity. Scientific institutions require autonomy with accountability, and a culture that protects the freedom to question and fail. Evaluation must move beyond citations and patents to measure real-world impact and long-term value. A vibrant scientific culture should embrace risk, reward ingenuity, and draw top talent into research and teaching—not just corporate careers.

Importantly, we must recognize that this journey is not a zero-sum race. Overtaking another economy in GDP is not the same as surpassing it in scientific influence or technological leadership. India must chart its own scientific path, learning from global models but not copying them blindly. Our national priorities—water, energy, urbanization, agriculture, health—require tailored, frugal and scalable innovations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often stated that India’s development must be driven by knowledge and self-reliance. Experts like Dr. Raghunath Mashelkar have long championed inclusive innovation and affordable and accessible solutions for the masses. Dr. Anil Kakodkar has also warned against complacency and stressed the need to embed science deeply across all sectors.

India’s rise to the fourth-largest economy is indeed worth noting. But to become a true global leader not just in size, but in strength, equity and creativity, we must commit to the long game. That game is science-driven development powered by education, industry and demographic balance, and anchored by a mindset that never settles for the minimum.

We’ve overtaken one of the giants. But staying ahead will require more than headlines. It demands weaving every strand of our growth story around a resilient spine of science. The true test of India’s future won’t be how fast we rise but how wisely, deeply and lastingly we innovate.

(The writer is the former Director, Agharkar Research Institute, Pune and Visiting Professor, IIT Bombay. Views personal.)