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By:

Quaid Najmi

4 January 2025 at 3:26:24 pm

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm...

Neutral IOD ‘battles’ a strong El Nino

Commuters navigate a waterlogged road after heavy rainfall at Vasai-Virar on Wednesday. Pic: PTI Mumbai: Belying gloomy forecasts of a potentially devastating monsoon 2026 season, a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – an ocean-atmosphere phenomena – may have helped soften the impact of a brutal El Nino over the sub-continent. As reported by ‘The Perfect Voice’ (May 31), a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatened to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, but was likely to be neutralized by the IOD. Considering the recent 10-days of torrential downpour in large parts of western and southern India, experts are optimistic that the IOD may help salvage this year’s monsoon, as it did in the past. The forecasts of a neutral IOD in May-June have proved true and meteorologists are hopeful that it may even turn positive as the season progresses and the rains cover the entire country in July. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said today: “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of Southwest Monsoon into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and the rest of the country in the next 2-3 days.” Forecast models indicated a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end, and earlier even the IMD had placed India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category this year. The current spell of heavy rains has brought smiles with water bodies filling up quickly in Maharashtra. Even the worried Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) announced a 41+ pc water storage today – lighting up Mumbaikars, though apprehensions persist over the rest of the season. Active Phase However, the waxing and waning of the monsoon rainfall is a normal process and the monsoon is currently in the ‘active phase’ due to multiple weather systems, according to climatologist Kartiki Negi, Lead, Climate Impact at Climate Trends. “Monsoon 2026 began under the threat of a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, but we must not forget the impact of climate change that has altered the character of the monsoon forever,” Negi told ‘The Perfect Voice’. The Pacific Ocean rapidly warmed toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition. India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now moving into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year, experts said. Explaining the scenario this year, Negi said: “During the ‘active phases’ of monsoon, we will see high-intensity events in shorter duration. El Niño is also known for temporarily enhancing global temperatures. The number of rainy days will be less but spells of extremely heavy rains cannot be ruled out”. Incidentally, in the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’ - in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons. What is El Niño A battle between the weather conditions of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean often decides the monsoon rain quota for India – whether there will be abundant rainfall or drought conditions – directly hitting agriculture, economy and the people. The culprit is El Nino, which develops when the eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, the heated air alters the global wind patterns, weakening the moisture-laden monsoon winds headed towards India – with potentially disastrous consequences. Its opposite phase is La Nina, which cools the Pacific Ocean, boosts Indian monsoon and results in widespread and intense rainfall. However, there is a buffer close by – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – which can help balance the conditions in the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. In a positive IOD, warmer waters near Africa and cooler waters near Indonesia generate stronger rain-bearing winds towards India and help offset the negative effects of El Nino – as in 2019, when India escaped a drought. But during a negative IOD, the rainfall moves towards Indonesia, and when it happens during an El Nino year, India can face a huge risk of severe drought. This year, the IOD is in a neutral phase currently, and experts are hopeful it may turn positive over the coming months, thus sparing India of the spectre of a major drought, despite the El Nino. As an expert said: “Even a slight change in sea surface temperature thousands of kms away can affect the rice on our plates…”

India waits to lasso diamantaire Mehul Choksi

Mumbai: India rubbed its hands gleefully as the Belgium Police honoured its request to arrest the absconder diamantaire Mehul Chinubhai Choksi – more than seven years after he, along with his nephew Nirav Deepak Modi - allegedly duped the Punjab National Bank of nearly Rs. 13,800-crores.

 

The scam involving the ‘Mehul Mama-Nirav Bhanja’ erupted in Jan 2018, after the PNB lodged a complaint with the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

 

By then the kin, along with many of their family members, winked and slipped out of the country, leaving a rattled India rubbing its palms in disappointment.

 

A political-cum-financial storm raged, embarrassing the Bharatiya Janata Party government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi a year before the Lok Sabha elections.

 

Multiple agencies launched a multi-pronged probe into what became the biggest banking scam in the past quarter century – and almost four times bigger than the stock market-cum-banking fraud the late Big Bull Harshad Mehta had inflicted on the Indian economy 33 years ago (in April 1992) – when it was just opening up.

 

In Belgium

According to official reports, Choksi was living with his Belgium citizen-wife Preeti in Antwerp, a global diamond hub, presumably for the past 18 months on a ‘residency permit’ acquired through questionable means, for medical reasons.

 

Earlier, he shot to the headers (June 2021) while being taken in a wheelchair to a court by the Dominican Republic's Police on charges of sneaking into the small country in the Caribbean Sea, North America.

 

Interestingly, as the Antigua & Barbuda government initiated the process to cancel his citizenship acquired through an investor visa, Choksi had suddenly gone ‘missing’ till he surfaced in the Dominican Republic.

 

The April 2025 action by Belgium followed a request by India’s CBI and the financial frauds specialist Enforcement Directorate (ED) to nab Choksi as the InterPol had revoked his Red Corner Notice in 2023.

 

Mama and Bhanja

‘Mama’ Choksi is the founder-owner of Gitanjali Group while ‘bhanja’ Nirav’s Firestar plus other companies – and the duo, with some PNB officials hand-in-glove – conspired to make a ‘mamu’ of not only PNB, but other banks, as it subsequently tumbled out.

 

After making a quiet exit, Choksi was detected living in the verdant Antigua & Barbuda Isles (West Indies), then attempted entry to the Dominican Republic, was sent back to Antigua & Barbuda and then went to Belgium where he was nabbed on Sunday.

 

Similarly, Modi was found sauntering on the streets of London and nabbed in March 2019. He remains in jail there since India's extradition is still pending.

 

However, India is keeping its fingers crossed that it may finally lay hands on Choksi, bring him to India and face trial in the PNB scam, though it may take time.

 

Born in Mumbai (1959) and educated in Gujarat, Choksi, 66, and wife Preeti have three children.

 

The Rs. 13,800-crore PNB scam

In the modus operandi revealed after India’s second-largest PSU bank PNB admitted it was scammed, Choksi and Modi used fraudulent Letters of Undertaking (LoU) to get overseas credits or loans from Indian banks.

 

The PNB first informed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of the fraud and then lodged a criminal complaint with the CBI in Jan. 2018, plus another CBI complaint in Feb, that led to a FIR against Modi and Choksi and their companies.

 

The ED entered the scene to probe the allegations of money-laundering through the LoUs – which they allegedly misused to avail short-term business finances from foreign branches of Indian banks.

 

The probe said that the duo were availing the LoUs from the PNB’s Brady House Branch from March 2011, and over the next six-seven years, managed to get a whopping 1,200-plus LoUs like a breeze with the help of some friendly bankers within.

 

Post-scam, the gold-diamond companies Gitanjali Group and Firestone Group with multiple operations in India and abroad have largely wound up, while some personal assets of the mama-bhanja have been auctioned to recover a part of the dues.

 

ED's plea to declare Choksi fugitive stuck for seven years

Even as absconding diamantaire Mehul Choksi, a key accused in the Punjab National Bank loan fraud case, has been arrested in Belgium, the ED's plea to declare him a fugitive economic offender has been pending before a court in Mumbai for nearly seven years.


Choksi, 65, and his nephew diamantaire Nirav Modi are the prime accused in the Rs 13,000 crore PNB bank loan fraud case. Choksi was arrested in Belgium following an extradition request by Indian probe agencies, official sources said on Monday.


The Enforcement Directorate had filed the application in July 2018, seeking to declare Choksi an FEO and confiscate his assets under provisions of the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act.


However, the matter has witnessed repeated delays owing to a barrage of applications filed by the accused in the PMLA court and the Bombay High Court alleging procedural lapses in the Enforcement Directorate's plea.


"The court is kept busy with frivolous applications, and hearing on our application to declare him (Choksi) an FEO has been adjourned for the past seven years,” an ED officer had said after the hearing was once again deferred this February.


"The court should have continued the hearing and taken a decision on the future course of action once the application was moved," the officer had said.

He had urged the court to take note of the repeated filing of similar applications and to not entertain them.


Choksi's lawyer had informed the court that the accused was undergoing treatment for suspected cancer in Belgium and intended to file an application in connection with his health.


Under the FEO Act, an individual can be declared a Fugitive Economic Offender if a warrant has been issued against him for an offence involving Rs 100 crore or more and he has left India while refusing to return. Once declared an FEO, the person's property can be confiscated by the investigating agency.


Choksi had challenged the ED's application in the Bombay High Court, alleging that the agency "had not followed proper procedure before filing the application and, hence, it stands vitiated".


However, in September 2023, the High Court dismissed his plea, ruling that the ED had adhered to the prescribed format under the FEO Act. It also vacated a stay on the special court's proceedings.


Despite this, the hearing on declaring Choksi FEO could not commence, with Choksi continuing to file applications before the special court through his lawyers.


While most of these pleas have been dismissed, a few remain pending. His latest attempt to stall proceedings through a plea to recall the notice issued on the ED's FEO application was rejected in December 2023.


According to ED officials, Choksi left India under suspicious circumstances in early January 2018.


Shifting stance

Choksi's counsel has argued that the ED kept shifting its stance on the material grounds for declaring him an FEO and that the suspension of his Indian passport made it impossible for him to return for investigation.

The court, however, rejected this argument, stating that the notice was issued based on accurate information and not based on "wrong facts or mistaken assumptions".


ED claimed the accused left the country under suspicious circumstances in the first week of January 2018.


Nirav Modi has already been declared as an FEO by the special court. He has been lodged in jail in London since 2019.

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