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By:

C.S. Krishnamurthy

21 June 2025 at 7:45:51 pm

Strong India, Cautious Investor

The Indian economy appears stronger than the nervousness visible in the stock market might suggest. Corporate earnings are improving, domestic demand remains reasonably resilient and several sectors are reporting healthy growth. Yet investors are facing an unusual mix of risks: crude oil is moving towards $100 a barrel, global bond yields are rising, foreign investors have turned sellers again and parts of the Indian market remain expensive. That leads to a simple investment message: India's...

Strong India, Cautious Investor

The Indian economy appears stronger than the nervousness visible in the stock market might suggest. Corporate earnings are improving, domestic demand remains reasonably resilient and several sectors are reporting healthy growth. Yet investors are facing an unusual mix of risks: crude oil is moving towards $100 a barrel, global bond yields are rising, foreign investors have turned sellers again and parts of the Indian market remain expensive. That leads to a simple investment message: India's growth story remains intact, but investors should not mistake a strong economy for a risk-free stock market. The latest corporate results offer considerable comfort. The economic momentum built over the past few quarters has not been derailed by geopolitical tensions. The margin pressure feared across several industries has also been less severe than expected. More importantly, earnings growth has been reasonably broad based. Large, mid and small companies have all shown healthy growth. If oil-related businesses, which are somewhat different in their earnings pattern, are excluded, the gap between the three market segments is not particularly wide. Financial services have been among the strongest performers, with banks, NBFCs and capital-market businesses reporting good growth. Capital goods, metals, telecom and power have also done well. For investors, this is significant. A stock market supported by genuine improvement in corporate profits has a much stronger foundation than one driven merely by enthusiasm. Domestic Risk The monsoon, however, remains an important domestic risk. Rainfall has been below normal so far, although the impact on the rural economy has not yet been alarming. Tractor and two-wheeler sales remain reasonably strong, suggesting that parts of rural India continue to spend. At the same time, increased demand under the rural employment guarantee programme suggests that weaker rainfall may be affecting poorer rural households more severely. Food inflation adds another complication. Higher food prices may improve the income of farmers who sell their produce, but they also increase the expenses of families who buy food. Therefore, higher food inflation cannot automatically be interpreted as stronger rural purchasing power. India is nevertheless better prepared than it once was. A healthy IPO market is a positive development. It allows companies to raise capital and gives investors fresh opportunities. But there is a point at which too much supply begins competing for the same pool of money. The current market provides a striking example. The much-awaited IPO of the National Stock Exchange is reportedly being considered at a size of around Rs. 24,000 to Rs. 25,000 crore, down from earlier expectations of Rs. 30,000 crore but a very large issue nonetheless. The message is not that investors should avoid IPOs. It is that an exciting new issue should not automatically be preferred over an established company merely because the new issue is attracting headlines. The bigger uncertainties are global. Brent crude has moved close to $100 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East have intensified. For India, which imports most of its energy requirements, expensive crude can mean higher inflation, a wider trade deficit and pressure on economic growth. US bond yields are another concern. Higher yields make dollar investments more attractive and can reduce the appetite for emerging markets such as India. This does not necessarily mean that global investors have abandoned India. It shows how quickly investment decisions can change when oil prices, interest rates and currencies move. Domestic investors, particularly mutual fund investors, therefore have an important role in providing stability. Their regular investments can partly offset foreign selling, although domestic flows cannot make the market immune to global shocks. Faster Growth The enthusiasm for small and mid-cap stocks is understandable. Many of these companies offer faster growth and have rewarded investors handsomely. But if investors pay too much for expected growth, even a good company's share price can disappoint. Large-cap companies, after a period of relative underperformance, may offer more comfortable valuations and greater stability. The right mix will depend on an investor’s financial goals, investment horizon and ability to withstand market fluctuations. India’s economic story remains encouraging. Corporate earnings are healthy, domestic demand has resilience and the economy has become better equipped to absorb individual shocks. But the stock market is not the economy. For the common investor, therefore, the most useful question today may not be, “What should I buy?” It may be, “Is my portfolio balanced enough to withstand what I cannot predict?” (The writer is a retired banker and author. He can be reached at krs1957@hotmail.com. Views personal.)

India working on logistics of Tahawwur Rana's extradition

PTI
Feb 14, 2025
3 min read

Updated: Feb 18, 2025

Tahawwur Rana

Washington: India is working on the logistics of Tahawwur Rana's surrender and extradition from the US, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has said, as President Donald Trump announced that his administration has given the go-ahead to extradite the 26/11 terror attack accused “to face justice".

“This is an issue on which the US authorities have taken very clear decisions. I think you've seen the President announce it himself from the White House podium" the decision of the US to extradite Rana, Misri said at a press conference here on Thursday.


During a joint press conference with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the White House, US President Donald Trump announced that his administration has approved the extradition of "very evil" Tahawwur Rana, wanted by Indian law enforcement agencies for his role in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, "to face justice in India”.


In response to a question by PTI on the timeframe by when Rana will be extradited to India, Misri said: "We are working on the logistics of his surrender and extradition to India. There are a few final steps to be completed. The two sides are in touch on this particular issue.”


The India-US joint statement issued during the Prime Minister's visit to the US notes that Modi and Trump reaffirmed that the global scourge of terrorism must be fought and terrorist safe havens eliminated from every corner of the world.

“They committed to strengthen cooperation against terrorist threats from groups, including Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Jaish-e Mohammad, and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba in order to prevent heinous acts like the attacks in Mumbai on 26/11 and the Abbey Gate bombing in Afghanistan on August 26, 2021," the joint statement said.


“Recognising a shared desire to bring to justice those who would harm our citizens, the US announced that the extradition to India of Tahawwur Rana has been approved," it said.


The leaders further called on Pakistan to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai, and Pathankot attacks and ensure that its territory is not used to carry out cross-border terrorist attacks.

"The leaders also pledged to work together to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems and to deny access to such weapons by terrorists and non-state actors,” the joint statement added.

Rana, a Canadian national of Pakistani origin, is currently lodged at a metropolitan detention centre in Los Angeles. He is known to be associated with Pakistani-American terrorist David Coleman Headley, one of the main conspirators of the 26/11 attacks.

Speaking at the joint press meet, Trump said "Today I am pleased to announce that my administration has approved the extradition of one of the plotters and very evil people of the world, and having to do with the horrific Mumbai terrorist attack, to face justice in India. So, he is going back to India to face justice."


The extradition of Rana was cleared by the US Supreme Court in January as it rejected his review petition in the case.


India last month said it was working with American authorities for the early extradition of Rana.


"The US Supreme Court on January 21 declined to hear a petition from the accused. We are now working with the US side on procedural issues for early extradition to India of the accused in the Mumbai terror attack," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said.


In November 2012, Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone surviving gunman among the Pakistani group, was hanged to death in Yerawada Jail in Pune.

-PTI

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