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Correspondent

21 August 2024 at 10:20:16 am

Grim Reckoning

The heckling of Trinamool Congress MP Abhishek Banerjee during the latter’s visit to Sonarpur is a stark reminder that fear has an expiry date. For years, West Bengal’s politics has been defined by intimidation. First the Communist, and later during Mamata Banerjee’s TMC regimes, the state’s political discourse has been overwhelmingly accompanied by violence, cadre dominance, partisan policing and a culture in which dissenters were expected to keep their heads down and their opinions to...

Grim Reckoning

The heckling of Trinamool Congress MP Abhishek Banerjee during the latter’s visit to Sonarpur is a stark reminder that fear has an expiry date. For years, West Bengal’s politics has been defined by intimidation. First the Communist, and later during Mamata Banerjee’s TMC regimes, the state’s political discourse has been overwhelmingly accompanied by violence, cadre dominance, partisan policing and a culture in which dissenters were expected to keep their heads down and their opinions to themselves. Whether in villages, municipalities or university campuses, countless Bengalis, especially the Hindu community, have complained that political power was exercised not only through the ballot box but through fear during the TMC rule. Against this backdrop, the scenes that unfolded during Abhishek Banerjee’s Sonarpur visit was a symbolic moment. The TMC political class that once inspired fear suddenly found itself confronting fearlessness and the ire of ordinary citizens. Trinamool leaders accustomed to hectoring and threatening the public were forced to face its ire as Abhishek was heckled and pelted with eggs. The Trinamool Congress would be mistaken if it dismisses the episode as an isolated incident. Across West Bengal after the polls, there is a palpable anger against TMC leaders and their henchmen. That simmering rage appears increasingly difficult to contain. For years, Abhishek Banerjee had projected himself as the heir apparent to Bengal’s ruling establishment, speaking haughtily with the confidence of a man convinced that power was permanently on his side. Now that the TMC is out of power, Sonarpur offered a starkly different picture. It showed what happens when politicians who are accustomed to commanding the public are suddenly confronted by it. From the horrors of Sandeshkhali to the public fury unleashed after the R.G. Kar outrage, West Bengal witnessed episode after episode that laid bare the TMC’s intimidation and moral corruption. The crowd that confronted Abhishek Banerjee at Sonarpur was venting years of accumulated resentment against a political culture many Bengalis had come to associate with arrogance, patronage and strong-arm tactics. They reflected what a significant section of the public has increasingly come to see as the moral bankruptcy of a political order that believed it could rule indefinitely through fear and organisational muscle. Abhishek Banerjee, more than any other TMC leader, had became the face of that system. The hostility he encountered in Sonarpur was political payback delivered by a public no longer willing to whisper its anger. While no civilised society should endorse mob violence, no politician can expect public sympathy after years of bullying and intimidating citizens. He or she must realize that political arrogance has consequences and that public anger, when it finally erupts, grinds even the most powerful dynasties to dust. Abhishek Banerjee’s reception in Sonarpur may therefore prove to be more than an embarrassing political episode. It may become the defining image of Trinamool’s final decline and fall.

IOD may cushion El Nino’s mega-threat

Mumbai: Amid gloomy forecasts of a below-normal monsoon 2026 in India due to a potentially devastating El Nino, scientists are monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an ocean-atmosphere phenomena that could possibly soften the impact over the sub-continent.

 

As a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatens to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, meteorologists keep their fingers crossed – as Positive IOD conditions that warm the western Indian Ocean have helped salvage the Indian monsoons in the past.

 

Though current forecasts point to neutral IOD conditions in May-June, with the possibility of turning positive later in the season, experts caution it may not be powerful enough to roll-back the effects of a very strong El Nino this year.

 

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 pc of the Long Period Average of 870 mm, with an error margin of 4 pc, placing India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category in 2026. The chances of deficient rains could be 60pc and probability of below-normal rains is at 24pc – an alarming picture.

 

Present forecast models point to a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end. In the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’, in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons.

 

Top scientists and meteorologists like Skymet Weather President (Meteorology and Climate Change) retired Air Vice-Marshal G. P. Sharma, University of Maryland Emeritus Professor Raghu Murtugudde, Food policy analyst Devinder Sharma, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture Executive Director Dr G. V. Ramanjaneyulu, FLAME University Public Policy Professor Dr. Anjal Prakash, Climate Trends Founder Aarti Khosla and Associate Director Archana Chaudhary, are a worried lot as the current ocean warming trends are similar to previous ‘Super El Nino’ events.

 

“The numerical models suggest the evolving El Nino (2026) could match the ‘Super El Nino’ seen four decades ago. Ocean temperatures are nearing record highs, and 2027 may surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record as El Nino’s warming impact is usually felt strongly the following year,” Sharma said.

 

Global Warming

Sharma added that the phenomenon is unfolding alongside long-term global warming, with oceans already absorbing nearly 90pc of excess heat generated by human activity.

 

The Pacific Ocean rapidly warms toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition, while India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now slated to move into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year.

 

Meteorologists aver that even an ‘evolving El Nino’ can disrupt the Indian monsoon – weakening the ‘Walker Circulation’ which is a massive air circulation system across the Pacific – leading to high-pressure conditions over the Indian subcontinent and suppressing rain-bearing clouds. The concern spans not just lower rainfall totals, but also erratic weather patterns and prolonged dry spells during the core monsoon months.

 

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) latest advisory says that there is an 82pc chance of El Nino emerging in May-July 2026, with a 96pc probability of it continuing through the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27.

 

Murtugudde said rainfall distribution would matter more than seasonal averages, the monsoon may be patchy, with longer break-monsoon conditions. “Delayed monsoon advance could trigger humid heat-waves across north-west India as hot winds from Pakistan combine with Arabian Sea moisture,” he explained.

 

He cautioned that agriculture planning would have to rely increasingly on short-term forecasts amid climate volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

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