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Correspondent

23 August 2024 at 4:29:04 pm

Deadly Arrogance

The death of three Indian sailors aboard the tanker Settebello should provoke outrage far beyond Indian borders. It is not merely a tragic consequence of yet another conflict in West Asia but the result of an extraordinarily arrogant assertion of power by Donald Trump’s United States. According to the U.S. military, an American aircraft carried out a ‘precision strike’ on the vessel’s engine room after its crew allegedly failed to comply with directions from American forces. That explanation...

Deadly Arrogance

The death of three Indian sailors aboard the tanker Settebello should provoke outrage far beyond Indian borders. It is not merely a tragic consequence of yet another conflict in West Asia but the result of an extraordinarily arrogant assertion of power by Donald Trump’s United States. According to the U.S. military, an American aircraft carried out a ‘precision strike’ on the vessel’s engine room after its crew allegedly failed to comply with directions from American forces. That explanation raises more questions than it answers. Since when does non-compliance by a commercial vessel warrant military force? Since when does a maritime blockade empower one nation to unleash missiles on civilian ships carrying foreign nationals? For months, Washington has justified its campaign against Iran-linked shipping as a necessary measure to uphold security and deter Tehran. Yet the results increasingly resemble a dangerous exercise in maritime coercion that places innocent seafarers directly in harm’s way. Eight ships have reportedly been disabled and more than a hundred turned back since the blockade began in April. Commercial shipping lanes have become theatres of military confrontation, with civilian crews paying the price. Soon after the strike on the Settebello, another vessel carrying twenty Indian sailors, the MT Jalveer, was struck off the coast of Oman. Thankfully, Omani authorities rescued those on board. While New Delhi has demanded that such attacks cease immediately, the outrage should go further. The killing of Indian nationals by a foreign military demands accountability. A transparent investigation is the minimum requirement and the International Maritime Organization is right to insist upon one. What makes the episode particularly troubling is the double standard that often accompanies American power. Had another country launched repeated attacks on commercial vessels, disabled ships in international waters and killed foreign sailors in the process, Washington would have denounced the actions as reckless and unlawful. Yet when America does it, the language becomes sanitised and civilian deaths from non-combatant countries become collateral damage. Military adventurism becomes ‘enforcement’ in U.S. geopolitical lingo. Washington appears increasingly comfortable wielding overwhelming force while expecting the world to accept the consequences. For India, the issue transcends geopolitics. More than nine million Indians live and work across West Asia, while Indian seafarers form one of the largest contingents in the global maritime workforce. Every escalation in the region places their lives at risk. New Delhi cannot remain a passive observer when its citizens become casualties of other nations’ strategic contests. The deaths aboard the Settebello are a stark reminder of an uncomfortable truth. The greatest threat to international order is not always posed by those who openly challenge it. Sometimes it comes from those who claim to defend it while acting as though the rules apply only to others.

IOD may cushion El Nino’s mega-threat

Mumbai: Amid gloomy forecasts of a below-normal monsoon 2026 in India due to a potentially devastating El Nino, scientists are monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an ocean-atmosphere phenomena that could possibly soften the impact over the sub-continent.

 

As a ‘very strong’ El Nino threatens to overshadow the rainy season with erratic rains, uneven spread, heat waves, farm distress and fresh inflationary pressures on the economy, meteorologists keep their fingers crossed – as Positive IOD conditions that warm the western Indian Ocean have helped salvage the Indian monsoons in the past.

 

Though current forecasts point to neutral IOD conditions in May-June, with the possibility of turning positive later in the season, experts caution it may not be powerful enough to roll-back the effects of a very strong El Nino this year.

 

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast monsoon rainfall at 90 pc of the Long Period Average of 870 mm, with an error margin of 4 pc, placing India dangerously close to ‘deficient rainfall’ category in 2026. The chances of deficient rains could be 60pc and probability of below-normal rains is at 24pc – an alarming picture.

 

Present forecast models point to a ‘strong to very strong’ El Nino by the year-end. In the past 75 years, the world has seen only four ‘Super El Ninos’, in 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 seasons.

 

Top scientists and meteorologists like Skymet Weather President (Meteorology and Climate Change) retired Air Vice-Marshal G. P. Sharma, University of Maryland Emeritus Professor Raghu Murtugudde, Food policy analyst Devinder Sharma, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture Executive Director Dr G. V. Ramanjaneyulu, FLAME University Public Policy Professor Dr. Anjal Prakash, Climate Trends Founder Aarti Khosla and Associate Director Archana Chaudhary, are a worried lot as the current ocean warming trends are similar to previous ‘Super El Nino’ events.

 

“The numerical models suggest the evolving El Nino (2026) could match the ‘Super El Nino’ seen four decades ago. Ocean temperatures are nearing record highs, and 2027 may surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record as El Nino’s warming impact is usually felt strongly the following year,” Sharma said.

 

Global Warming

Sharma added that the phenomenon is unfolding alongside long-term global warming, with oceans already absorbing nearly 90pc of excess heat generated by human activity.

 

The Pacific Ocean rapidly warms toward El Niño conditions after a rare year of climatic transition, while India began the year under weak La Nina conditions, shifted into ENSO-neutral conditions, and is now slated to move into El Nino territory in the second half of 2026 - itself a rare sequence in a single calendar year.

 

Meteorologists aver that even an ‘evolving El Nino’ can disrupt the Indian monsoon – weakening the ‘Walker Circulation’ which is a massive air circulation system across the Pacific – leading to high-pressure conditions over the Indian subcontinent and suppressing rain-bearing clouds. The concern spans not just lower rainfall totals, but also erratic weather patterns and prolonged dry spells during the core monsoon months.

 

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) latest advisory says that there is an 82pc chance of El Nino emerging in May-July 2026, with a 96pc probability of it continuing through the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27.

 

Murtugudde said rainfall distribution would matter more than seasonal averages, the monsoon may be patchy, with longer break-monsoon conditions. “Delayed monsoon advance could trigger humid heat-waves across north-west India as hot winds from Pakistan combine with Arabian Sea moisture,” he explained.

 

He cautioned that agriculture planning would have to rely increasingly on short-term forecasts amid climate volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.

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