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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Iran war frays Pune’s gastronomic fabric

As a gas shortage ripples through the city, its vast informal food economy has begun to unravel

AI generated image
AI generated image

Pune: The global energy shock triggered by disruptions to gas supplies from West Asia has begun to empty commercial LPG cylinders across India. But its effects are being felt most starkly in Pune, known for its student bustle and middle-class industriousness.


The crisis has begun to choke Pune’s famed informal food industry as the severe shortage of commercial gas cylinders brings large swathes of the city’s eateries, its mess halls and snack centres to a standstill.


The crisis, brought on by escalating events in West Asia following the US-Israel strikes on Iran last month, has exposed just how fragile and how extensive Pune’s informal food economy really is.


Tragic Disruption

While domestic cooking gas remains largely available, sparing households the worst, the city’s commercial kitchens - from modest tea stalls to long-standing boarding houses - have been starved of fuel. The result is a slow-motion shutdown. Restaurants have gone dark. Sweet shops and snack counters have shuttered. Entire ‘khao gallis,’ the dense food lanes that animate neighbourhoods, have fallen silent or now operate sporadically.


In some corners, improvisation has replaced modernity. Outside eateries, traditional chulhas (wood-fired hearths) have reappeared, their smoke curling into the air like relics of an earlier century. Coal stoves and electric cooktops are pressed into service. Food is cooked on pavements, in full public view, in a bid to keep businesses alive. Yet such adaptations are labour-intensive, inefficient and unsustainable.


Few establishments illustrate the strain better than New Poona Boarding House, a century-old institution that has long fed students, office workers and pensioners. Its owner, Suhas Udupikar, now spends hours each day sourcing firewood to keep the kitchen running. Even then, compromises are unavoidable. The menu has been trimmed and altered: puris have replaced polis, a small but telling shift dictated by fuel constraints. The boarding house still serves meals, but only just. Survival, not service, has become the priority.


Elsewhere, the impact has been more abrupt. In the Camp area, Garden Vada Pav - a beloved purveyor of one of the city’s most iconic snacks - has halted production entirely. Its large, indulgent vada pav and spiced buttermilk once drew crowds from across the city. Now, the shutters are down. For an estimated 400 to 500 families dependent on the enterprise, income has vanished overnight. What was once a culinary symbol of Pune has become a casualty of its energy shortage.


Business Impact

The crisis extends far beyond a handful of famous names. Food lanes along Jangli Maharaj Road, Sadashiv Peth, Sinhagad Road, Baner and Kondhwa - normally teeming with students and young professionals - have thinned out. Vendors who once thrived on high turnover and low margins now face a stark arithmetic: without fuel, there is no food; without food, there is no business.


The repercussions are perhaps most acutely felt by Pune’s vast student population. Roughly half a million students reside in the city, many of them reliant on low-cost khanavals (mess halls offering meals for as little as Rs. 70) as well as tea stalls and snack counters. As these establishments shut or curtail their offerings, students are being forced into difficult choices. Some have already returned to their hometowns. Others, staying back for examinations, are weighing whether to continue their education in Pune at all. Conversations about shifting to online learning have begun to surface, alongside a broader reassessment of the city’s rising cost of living.


The ripple effects spread through an intricate web of livelihoods. Pune’s food economy is not merely a collection of eateries; it is an ecosystem. Informal hostels, often run from private homes, depend on meal services prepared by women seeking supplementary income. Delivery workers ferry parcels across neighbourhoods. Drivers transport supplies. Small traders supply raw materials. When the kitchens fall silent, this entire chain falters.


For many, the threat is existential. Hotel workers, snack vendors and mess operators now face the specter of prolonged unemployment. Women running home-based meal services lose a crucial income stream. Even peripheral sectors like transport, logistics, small-scale supply, feel the strain. What began as a shortage of commercial gas cylinders has metastasised into a broader economic disruption.


There are also early signs of deeper anxieties. Some residents fear that if the shortage persists, its impact could spill into small and medium-sized industrial units on the city’s outskirts. While such concerns remain speculative, they underscore the sense of uncertainty gripping the city. Pune’s economic resilience has long rested on its diversity - education, services, manufacturing - but the current crisis reveals how interconnected these sectors are.

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