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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect...

High-stakes chess beneath the surface

BJP Candidates coming out after filing their nomination for the upcoming Legislative Council Polls from Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai on Thursday. Pic: Bhushan Koyande Mumbai: Typically, when a ruling coalition enjoys a formidable and comfortable majority, elections to the Rajya Sabha and the State Legislative Council are quiet, predictable affairs. They are often viewed as mere formalities, rarely capturing the public imagination or dominating front-page headlines. Historically, these indirect elections only become newsworthy under specific conditions: either the ruling coalition is plagued by internal fissures, or the opposition is too fragmented to put up a united front. In Maharashtra, however, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Recently, the Rajya Sabha elections became the center of intense media scrutiny, and over the past week, the Legislative Council polls followed suit. Although all ten candidates—nine from the ruling alliance and one from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—are now set to be elected unopposed, the intricate backroom maneuvers that led to this truce kept the state’s political circles buzzing. Interestingly, the reason for this heightened news value can be traced to both a subtle tug-of-war within the ruling combine and a visibly weakened opposition. Shifting Strategy The maneuvering within the opposition ranks has been particularly telling. A major focal point of the election buildup was the anticipated candidacy of Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray. After generating considerable hype and speculation about a potential return to the legislature, Thackeray ultimately chose to withdraw from the electoral fray. This sudden pullback forced a rapid recalibration within the MVA. Initially, the Congress party had adopted an aggressive posture, declaring its intention to field a candidate if Thackeray decided against contesting. However, following closed-door deliberations with Shiv Sena (UBT) leadership, the Congress quietly backed down. Why the state Congress leadership so readily acquiesced to this sudden change in strategy, sacrificing a potential seat, remains a mystery and a subject of intense debate among political observers. On the other side of the aisle, the ruling Mahayuti coalition maximized this electoral opportunity to consolidate its political base, reward loyalists, and balance complex regional equations. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strategically paved the way for the political rehabilitation of former Congress legislator Zishan Siddique by nominating him to the Legislative Council. This calculated move introduces a prominent new Muslim face for the party, likely intended to fill the leadership vacuum in Mumbai left by veteran leader Nawab Malik. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde used his nominations to send a definitive message about the premium he places on loyalty. By securing another term for Dr. Neelam Gorhe, Shinde demonstrated that those who stood by his faction would be adequately rewarded. Furthermore, by bringing Vidarbha strongman Bachchu Kadu into the fold, Shinde has attempted to anchor his party’s future and expand its footprint in a region predominantly controlled by his senior alliance partner, the BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party, playing its characteristic long game, meticulously ensured that its list of six candidates struck the perfect organizational, social, and political balance. Battle for LOP Despite these broader alliance strategies, the most consequential nomination in this electoral cycle is arguably that of Ambadas Danve. Barely six months after completing his tenure in the Upper House and stepping down from the prestigious post of Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Danve has been nominated once again by the Shiv Sena (UBT). With his return to the house, there is a strong possibility that he will reclaim his former post. This specific development highlights a much deeper crisis within the Congress. Following Danve’s brief retirement, the Congress had naturally emerged as the largest opposition party in the Upper House. This mathematical advantage theoretically paved the way for their Kolhapur strongman, Satej “Banti” Patil, to lay claim to the Leader of the Opposition’s chair. However, the sudden defection of Congress MLC Pradnya Satav, who switched loyalties to the BJP, severely dented the party’s numbers. Her departure brought the Congress’s strength in the house just below that of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Stripped of its numerical superiority overnight, the Congress was relegated to being a mute spectator, unable to assert its rightful claim. Internal Dissent This series of tactical defeats has triggered palpable frustration within the Congress’s state unit. One senior Congress leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed deep disappointment with the state leadership’s inability to protect the party’s interests. “Everyone has personal political ambitions, but leaders must learn the ways to collectively move ahead and strategize,” the leader remarked, attributing the party’s current stagnation in Maharashtra to this lack of cohesive vision. In short, these Legislative Council elections have delivered one message loud and clear: even when everything appears calm and stable on the surface, the relentless machinery of politics continues to churn behind the scenes. No political player in Maharashtra can afford to rest assured or sit idle under the illusion that there are no major state elections until 2029.

Jarange’s decision harmful for MVA

Updated: Nov 7, 2024

Jarange

Mumbai: Diwali is barely over but the fireworks are still exploding in the political arena. On the last day of withdrawing nominations for the upcoming elections, Manoj Jarange-Patil announced that he wouldn’t field any candidates for the polls. This was hours after he “vowed revenge” against the Mahayuti alliance. Only a day earlier on Sunday, he had claimed to back 25 candidates across the state. The BJP and Shiv Sena are heaving a sigh of relief especially for its candidates contesting from Marathwada, the epicentre of the quota protests and other constituencies with a sizeable Maratha population. But the real cheer, say political watchers, is in the MVA especially the NCP (SP).


Party insiders say that when minister Uday Samant and the chief minister’s personal assistant held a midnight meeting with Manoj Jarange-Patil at Antarvali- Saraati, a few days before Diwali, it is believed that the duo was tasked with convincing the Maratha quota activist to name candidates wherever he wanted. The Mahayuti would unconditionally back those. These candidates would be used to hurt the chances of the MVA candidates. It would have been a coup had he accepted. Incidentally, the NCP (SP) has nominated candidates from several seats in Marathwada with a special emphasis on the region.


Jarange-Patil’s withdrawal announcement met with a sharp rebuke from Laxman Hate who mocked him by saying that “calls from Baramati” were responsible for the change of heart. But the decision is likely to, indeed, benefit the NCP (SP) apart from other members of the MVA. While Jarange-Patil claimed that he couldn’t get the support of Muslims and Dalits and didn’t want to back only Maratha candidates, the real reasons are different.


In Parli which falls in Beed, which is the heartland of the protests, the NCP (SP) has played the Maratha card well by fielding Rajesahe Deshmukh against Agriculture Minister Dhananjay Munde. The seat is seeing friction between Marathas and OBCs and Jarange-Patil’s decision will help consolidate the Maratha vote in favour of Deshmukh. Similarly, in Majalgaon in the same district, Mohan Jagtap will now not have to contend with the Maratha votes breaking up in favour of a candidate backed by Jarange-Patil. A few days ago, the activist had vowed by put up candidates in Daund and Parvati, one held by the BJP and the other by the NCP (SP).


Marathas constitute 30 to 33 per cent of the electorate in Maharashtra. The MVA expects to win the Maratha vote in most constituencies while the OBCs have traditionally shown more faith in the BJP ever since Gopinath Munde, an OBC leader, rose up the party’s ranks.


Last week, Samarjeet Ghatge, the NCP (SP)’s pick from Kagal had also met Jarange-Patil to seek his cooperation and support considering that Kagal also has a sizeable Maratha population. A candidate backed by Jarange-Patil would have eaten into Ghatge’s voteshare. The eal agenda of the meeting also apparently involved a plea by Ghatge for Jarange-Patil not to put up candidates that would upset the MVA’s chances with caste mathematics. Ghatge was supposedly selected for the job given his family’s relationship with Rajarshi Shahu Maharaj, the erstwhile royal who is highly respected for working towards equality for all castes.


At present, Jarange-Patil is one public persona in Maharashtra who no party wants to be on the wrong side of. Given the massive following that he enjoys among the community, all political parties and candidates are seeking his support. The announcement that all parties were waiting for will relieve the pressures of the Mahayuti in a few constituencies but is likely to benefit the NCP (SP) the most.

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