Knesset in Crisis

A battle over God and guns leaves Netanyahu in political purgatory.

In Israel, governments seldom die of natural causes. Instead, they implode. The recent resignation of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party from Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition has left Israel’s longest-serving prime minister politically exposed once again. The departure follows a similar move by United Torah Judaism (UTJ) earlier in the week, both over the government’s failure to guarantee continued military draft exemptions for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) yeshiva students. The exits have reduced Netanyahu’s grip on the Knesset to a precarious minority of just 50 of 120 seats.

Since Israel’s founding, ultra-Orthodox men studying in religious seminaries have been largely exempt from mandatory military service. But 21 months into Israel’s grinding war in Gaza, public tolerance for this arrangement is fraying. While the sons and daughters of secular Israelis are sent to fight, the sight of thousands of Haredi men exempted from the front lines is increasingly resented. Netanyahu’s efforts to codify permanent exemptions have angered a broad swathe of the population and even his own allies.

For now, the collapse is partial. Shas has left the cabinet but promises not to vote down the government. That leaves Netanyahu at the mercy of his far-right coalition partners, who have little appetite for compromise. The government’s agenda, already beholden to figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, will now become even more extreme, especially on matters related to Gaza. With ceasefire talks underway, Netanyahu’s room for manoeuvre just got smaller.

The paradox of Israeli politics is that its electoral system, which is proportional representation with a low threshold, ensures no party ever rules alone. Governments are stitched together from coalitions that often include ideological opposites. In such an environment, the ultra-Orthodox parties, though representing only about 13 percent of the population, wield outsize power. They vote as blocs, demand concrete religious concessions and are expert in the political dark arts of brinkmanship.

Shas, in particular, has long been a master of this game. It has served in coalitions led by left-leaning Labour, centrist Kadima, and right-wing Likud. Its loyalty is transactional. In 1999, when Ehud Barak defeated Netanyahu in a surprise landslide, it was partly because Shas withheld support. In 2015, the party returned to Likud's fold, extracting generous welfare concessions and funding for religious schools.

Minority governments in Israel are not unprecedented, but they are always short-lived. In 1990, Yitzhak Shamir briefly led a minority government after Labour pulled out. In 2022, the ‘change government’ led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid lost its majority just a year into power. Netanyahu himself has governed from the edge before, but never while waging a major war and fending off both international pressure and domestic protest.

The timing of the ultra-Orthodox walkout is telling. The Knesset is scheduled to begin a three-month recess on July 27, giving Netanyahu a rare window to recalibrate. But the optics are damning. As bodies pile up in Gaza and Israelis debate the future of the military draft, Netanyahu appears unable to govern. This perception is worsened by his ongoing corruption trial that has bolstered opposition leader Yair Lapid, who wasted no time in declaring the government “illegitimate” and demanding new elections.

Discontent over the Gaza war, inflation and judicial overreach has swelled into periodic mass protests. The issue of Haredi conscription has only intensified the sense that Netanyahu’s coalition represents a narrow sectarian agenda rather than the national interest.

Still, writing off Netanyahu would be premature. The man known as ‘the magician’ has an uncanny ability to survive political near-death experiences. His current government, formed in December 2022, was already the most right-wing and religious in Israel’s history. Stripped of two ultra-Orthodox pillars, it is a skeleton cabinet, capable of limping forward but unable to legislate, reform or pursue diplomacy.

Netanyahu’s options are narrowing. He could call early elections. He could court centrist defectors. Or he could cling on, hoping that geopolitical winds tilt events in his favour.