The death of Ajit Pawar has unsettled western Maharashtra, leaving the BJP cautiously biding its time Pune: Western Maharashtra has long been Indian politics in miniature: dense with sugar cooperatives, caste arithmetic, money and muscle power. For decades it was shaped by one extended family – the Pawars - whose writ ran from district banks to dairy unions and from assembly halls to village panchayats. The sudden death of Ajit Pawar, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) strongman and Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister, has jolted this ecosystem. The aftershocks are being felt most keenly not by his rivals, but by his ally, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has long coveted the region. Maharashtra’s politics has always been regionally segmented. The BJP is entrenched in north Maharashtra; it has broken through spectacularly in Mumbai, including wresting control of the municipal corporation; Vidarbha remains Congress-leaning while Marathwada is competitive and volatile. Family Bastion Western Maharashtra, by contrast, has remained been the Pawars’ citadel. Control over cooperatives, especially sugar, has translated into rural loyalty, financial muscle and electoral dominance. The NCP, founded by Sharad Pawar, thrived on this architecture. The BJP, despite its national rise, has struggled to crack it. Rather than dislodge the system, the BJP sought to co-opt it. Disaffected satraps were inducted like Udayanraje Bhosale in Satara; the Mahadiks in Kolhapur; the Mohite-Patils in Solapur. Local strongmen such as Rahul Kul in Pune district were elevated and veterans like Harshvardhan Patil were brought in, if only briefly. The idea was to gradually bleed the undivided NCP led by patriarch Sharad Pawar. That effort has intensified as the BJP eyes an audacious goal: returning to power in Maharashtra on its own in the 2029 Assembly election. For that to happen, western Maharashtra is indispensable. It is no accident that the Modi government had created a new Union ministry of cooperation, handing it to Amit Shah. Cooperatives are the region’s political bloodstream. After the 2024 general election, Muralidhar Mohol, elected from Pune, was made minister of state in the same department. He was also informally tasked with western Maharashtra in a clear signal of the BJP’s strategic focus. Mohol’s brief was daunting: contain both Pawars. Sharad Pawar’s stature as a national deal-maker and Ajit Pawar’s grip on local machinery made them a formidable duo even when divided. Yet, the recent municipal contests in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad hinted at change. When both Pawars campaigned together, the BJP still managed to defeat them, suggesting that the old formula no longer guaranteed victory. Uncertain Times Then came the plane crash on January 28 leading to Ajit Pawar’s tragic death. His wife, Sunetra Pawar, was sworn in as deputy chief minister, an act of continuity intended to steady the ranks. While public sympathy is palpable, it has nothing to do with organisation. Sunetra Pawar will need time to command the networks her husband once ran by instinct. Her early gestures like visiting Karad to pay homage to Yashwantrao Chavan and invoking the legacy of Phule, Shahu and Ambedkar signal an attempt to anchor the party in its progressive tradition. Whether that rhetoric can substitute for Ajit Pawar’s authority is uncertain. Uncertainty abounds elsewhere too. Rumours swirl of a rapprochement or even a merger between the rival NCP factions. One scenario has Supriya Sule entering the Union cabinet. Another asks a more existential question: could Sharad Pawar, architect of Maharashtra’s secular, centrist politics, ever align formally with the BJP’s Hindutva project? His reported unease with a recent India–America trade agreement has fuelled speculation among supporters already anxious about ideological drift. Against this haze, the BJP’s restraint is striking. Rather than rushing to exploit the moment, it has preferred to wait and watch. The party knows that western Maharashtra is not won in a season. Cooperative elections, local bodies and caste coalitions move slowly. For now, the BJP is content to let the Pawars recalibrate, to allow factions to test their strength, and to intervene only when the contours are clearer. In a region where politics has long been about inheritance, Ajit Pawar’s absence has exposed how fragile even the most entrenched systems can be. The BJP senses opportunity, but is also aware of the attendant risks. Its wait-and-watch posture reflects a calculation born of experience. And in western Maharashtra, patience can be a weapon.
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