New Dawn or Old Rivalries?

Khaleda Zia’s acquittal in a corruption case paves the way for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader to contest elections, but the nation’s deep fractures remain.

Over the decades, Bangladesh has swung between autocratic rule, flawed democracy and bitter feuds between its two dominant political figures - Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia. In August last year, mass protests toppled Sheikh Hasina, forcing her to flee to India, with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus stepping in as interim leader. Now, her rival Khaleda Zia seems set for a political resurgence.

The 79-year-old leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) secured a crucial victory last week when the Supreme Court acquitted her and her son, Tarique Rahman, in a 2008 corruption case. The court’s decision overturned a 10-year prison sentence handed down in 2018 for allegedly misappropriating orphanage funds during her term as prime minister. This ruling follows a similar acquittal last November in another graft case, effectively removing the legal obstacles preventing her from contesting the next general election.

Since 1981, when Zia’s husband, President Ziaur Rahman, was assassinated, she has been a central figure in the country’s political landscape. Thrust into leadership, she assumed control of the BNP in 1984, just as Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, returned from exile to lead the Awami League. Together, the two women forged alliances to topple the military dictatorship of Hussain Muhammad Ershad in 1990, only to descend into decades of mutual animosity.

This rivalry has defined Bangladeshi politics, alternating between Zia and Hasina’s leadership since the 1990s. Hasina’s 15-year tenure, which ended in August, was marred by allegations of authoritarianism, electoral manipulation, and crackdowns on dissent. Meanwhile, Zia’s terms in office were similarly controversial, characterized by corruption allegations and a confrontational style of governance.

Following Hasina’s ouster, the Yunus-led interim government has struggled to establish a timeline for new elections. Zia and the BNP, rejuvenated by the fall of their rival, are now eager to seize the political vacuum.

Zia’s release from house arrest in August and her subsequent trip to London for medical treatment signal her re-entry into active politics. Her son, Tarique Rahman, who fled to London in 2008, has been similarly exonerated of criminal charges, positioning him as the BNP’s future face. However, his controversial reputation—rooted in corruption allegations and human rights abuses—casts a shadow over the party’s prospects.

Zia’s comeback may offer hope to BNP loyalists, but it does little to address the nation’s deeper crises. Bangladesh’s democratic fabric has been eroded by decades of political vendettas. Both Zia and Hasina have exploited state institutions to sideline their opponents, undermining judicial independence and the electoral process. The Supreme Court’s recent rulings, while favourable to Zia, will do little to dispel perceptions of politicized justice.

Economic challenges compound these political woes. Bangladesh’s rapid economic growth in recent years masked structural vulnerabilities. Dependence on garment exports, remittance inflows, and foreign loans has left the economy susceptible to global shocks. Rising debt and faltering investor confidence threaten to undo hard-won gains in poverty alleviation and infrastructure development.

For the interim government, the priority must be restoring public trust in governance. However, the absence of a political consensus and lingering tensions between the BNP and Awami League complicate this mission.

Zia’s acquittal and renewed political ambitions offer a dramatic twist in Bangladesh’s tumultuous narrative. But it remains unclear whether Zia, weakened by age and health, can lead her party through the treacherous terrain of national elections.

As for Hasina, her future is uncertain. Her ability to stage a political comeback, as she did in 2008, will depend on whether her Awami League can regroup under her leadership or find a credible successor.

Right now, the willingness of Bangladesh’s fractured political class to put national interests above personal rivalries seems a tall order in a country where history too often repeats itself.