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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to...

RBI forced to rethink inflation, growth

Mumbai: The undeniable reality of climate change is rapidly transitioning from an ecological warning to a severe economic crisis in India. Global warming is no longer just altering natural ecosystems; it is fundamentally rewriting the rules of the nation's macroeconomic stability. A stark illustration of this shift comes from the HSBC report published on Monday, which highlights how rising surface temperatures and the looming threat of El Niño are directly forcing the Reserve Bank of India to reconsider its monetary policy, proving that climate shocks are now dictating everyday financial realities. ​ For decades, economists and policymakers have anxiously tracked the Indian monsoon, relying on rain gauges and reservoir levels to forecast agricultural output and inflation. However, HSBC’s analysis reveals a startling paradigm shift: tracking rising temperatures has now become a far more accurate method for predicting food inflation than observing traditional rainfall patterns. As average surface temperatures breach historical thresholds, the sensitivity of food prices to extreme heat has increased dramatically. During El Niño years, the probability of severe temperature spikes is now significantly higher than the chances of a rainfall deficit. These intensifying spikes mean the thermometer has become a far more vital forecasting tool for the central bank than the rain gauge. ​ The effects of this warming planet are cascading through various walks of life, starting at the very roots of the agricultural sector. Intense and frequent heatwaves are no longer just wilting delicate, perishable crops like fruits and vegetables, which have traditionally been highly vulnerable to sudden temperature fluctuations. The soaring mercury is now directly threatening the resilience of durable staple crops, including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and sugar. When these crucial crops fail to withstand the intensifying heat, the immediate fallout is a sharp surge in food prices. While robust granaries might offer a temporary buffer, the overarching trend points to persistent agricultural distress, threatening food security and pushing the financial burden directly onto the plates of ordinary citizens. Complex Web ​This climate-induced disruption is creating a complex web of challenges for the national economy. The HSBC report predicts that the combination of El Niño-driven temperature shocks and global energy pressures could push headline inflation to an average of 5.6 percent in the 2026-27 financial year. This overlapping environmental and economic crisis leaves the Reserve Bank of India in a precarious position. To combat the inflationary heat, the central bank is projected to deliver two interest rate hikes between late 2026 and early 2027, ultimately pushing the repo rate to 5.75 percent. However, the central bank must tread carefully, as these relentless climate shocks are simultaneously dragging down the nation's economic momentum, with GDP growth projections downgraded from a robust 7.4 percent to a sluggish 6 percent. ​ Ultimately, the heaviest toll of this shifting climate is borne by the most vulnerable segments of society. The intersection of severe weather events, rising food costs, and tightening economic policies strikes hardest at the informal sector. Rural households, small agricultural businesses, and daily wage earners find their livelihoods increasingly squeezed by extreme weather forces entirely out of their control. The warming climate is fundamentally changing the drivers of India’s economic growth, turning environmental predictability into a luxury of the past. As policymakers grapple with these twin shocks of heat and inflation, it is evident that climate change has firmly rooted itself in every facet of Indian life.

NGO grows mango trees, provides profit to farmers


Mumbai: What started as a small drive to collect money for an old woman’s hospital charges has now turned into a large Non-Governmental Organisation of 300 people named WeGroup, dedicated to serve society in various areas.


Founded by Ashwin Patel in 2013, the NGO is based in Mira Road, the NGO have now taken up a new mission, Mission Mango. Mission Mango is about collecting the leftover seed of eaten mango and then planting it to grow a new tree. As Mango Season is here the NGO is proactive in raising awareness among people.


Mango seed cannot be collected as it is after eating, there is a due process to make the seed suitable for collection. Ronak Mehta, a core-committee member and head volunteer, speaking to ‘The Perfect Voice’, explained the whole process. He said, “After eating wash the mango seed thoroughly, secondly dry it and third-step is to collect it in a cardboard or a plastic free container.” After the whole collection send it to the given address by the NGO.


The NGO has collection points in Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.


Post-Collection Process

However, it is not easy to grow a tree out of mango seeds as it sounds. The dried mango seeds are first sent to nurseries of the Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra. At present there are over 42 nurseries of Department of Agriculture in the state. As the group is based in Mumbai the mango seeds are sent to a well-functioning nursery in Vasai-Pelhar region.


The nursery inspects every seed and healthy ones are selected


The methods used are polyhouse farming or polytunnel farming. Polyhouses are special enclosed structure covered in transparent plastic that creates a suitable and controllable environment for high-yield. Polytunnels are arched tunnel-type structures that aid in increasing the growing seasons by four to eight weeks by trapping solar radiation, warming soil and protecting crops.


However, these methods are cost-effective but do require money. The NGO raises this money through donation funds especially through CSR funding.


Two to three seeds are sown together which grow into one mango tree, because one seed does grow into an unhealthy, and unyielding mango tree. This process is called Grafting Method.


These methods result in high-yielding mango trees which are then given to farmers.


Main Objective

For the first year the tree is totally handled by the department and the NGO. After that the tree is given to the farmers and then they are sold into the market.


The tree is handed over to the farmers registered with the Department of Agriculture and falling Below Poverty Line.


“We want to help Below Poverty Line (BPL) farmers, tribal farmers, whose conditions are not that good. Through this initiative we want empower them,” Mehta said.


Through this mission last year, the NGO successfully grew 20,000 trees by collecting 22,750 seeds and provided profit to 5000 farmers.


The Expansion

As more people join this initiative the main problem still remains unsolved. The mango dairies sell a lot of mango juice throughout the mango season. On an average around 10,000 seeds are thrown away daily. But as the seeds are more, they require more man power to wash it and dry it.


“To solve this problem the WeGroup NGO wants to build Mango Seed Processing Units, which are expensive. But it is the secondary goal, the primary goal is to develop the 42 nurseries in the state,” Mehta said.

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