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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

NYC proclaims April 14 as ‘B. R. Ambedkar Day’

Updated: Apr 13, 2025

Mumbai/New York: In a historic move, the New York city has declared April 14 as ‘Dr. Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar Day’ to honor the Chief Architect of Indian Constitution, gladdening hearts of Indians, especially Dalits in the USA, officials said.

 

The distinction, first ever by a major US city, comes on Dr. Ambedkar’s 134th birth anniversary (Monday) and to recognize the contributions of one of the world’s most transformative champions of equality and civil rights.

 

New York City Mayor Eric Adams made the Proclamation, acknowledging the Columbia University educated Dr. Ambedkar’s towering legacy in advancing democracy, dignity, women’s empowerment and justice for historically marginalized communities.

 

“Dr. Ambedkar — whose message to his followers was ‘educate, agitate, organize!’—advocated against the exploitation of farmers and tenants in India, as well as the social institution of untouchability. He spent the rest of his life fighting for the diversity, equity and inclusion which, collectively, have long defined the five boroughs,” said Mayor Adams.

 

Prominent Indians like New Jersey-India Commission (NJIC)’s Commissioner Deelip Mhaske and President of Foundation for Human Horizon; businessman and Nimit Palace Hotels founder Ashu Singh; ex-Columbia University Prof. Akansha Anand; Dr. Snehal Ukey, originally from Nagpur, and others warmly welcomed Mayor Adams’ initiative.

 

“In 2016, with the support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, we initiated the first-ever Ambedkar Jayanti celebrations at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. It continues as one of the most important international observances in the UN,” Mhaske told The Perfect Voice from New York.

 

Another successful campaign was launched in New York for the Special Day to promote Dr. Ambedkar’s legacy while Parliaments in over 100 countries, UN Missions and academic institutions also celebrate his contributions to uplift the depressed sections globally, added Mhaske.

 

Earlier in 2023, Mhaske and others succeeded to co-name the East 63rd Street in Manhattan, NYC, as “Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Way” – the first-ever such dedication in any US street.

 

Since April 2023, New Jersey state’s Jersey City Hall hoists the iconic Dalit Flag – blue with a white Ashoka Chakra in the centre – for the entire month to commemorate Dr. Ambedkar, with over four dozen other events.

 

There are innumerable busts, statues and portraits of Dr. Ambedkar all over US and in public or private institutions where similar celebrations are carried out on all important days linked to the ‘Champion of the Masses’, said Mhaske.

 

Born on April 14, 1891 in Mhow (Central India, now in Madhya Pradesh), Dr. Ambedkar was a prominent freedom-fighter, India’s first Law Minister, the Chief Architect of the Constitution which came into force on Jan. 26, 1950 (now, celebrated as Republic Day).

 

On Dec. 6, 1956, Dr. Ambedkar succumbed to a brief illness at 65 in Delhi, and the next day, his mortal remains were consigned to the flames in a Buddhist cremation at Dadar Beach in Mumbai – with the place now a sacred monument called Chaityabhoomi.


Dr. Ambedkar on a budget in the US (1913-1916):

A bright, wide-eyed, already married young Bhimrao, then 22, landed in the US (1913) to pursue his post-graduations in the hallowed portals of the Columbia University in New York.

 

The opportunity for three years came when he bagged a Sterling Pound 138/year scholarship, launched by Maharaj Sayajirao Gaekwad III of Baroda State.

 

Reaching the US barely months after his father died, Bhimrao survived on a shoe-string spending only $1.10 daily, plus sent some money home, studied mostly on the university campus or other local academic institutions to save time and resources.

 

He completed his MA and PhD in Columbia University, later, a PhD and DSc from London School of Economics, and also became a Barrister-at-Law in the UK, making him one of highest educated Indians of that dark era when India reeled under the British Rule.

 

From abroad, Bhimrao would write scores of letters to his family members, friends and others, sharing his concerns for caste and gender equality, democracy and social justice, liberation and empowerment, etc.

 

All of these later reflected when he drafted the Indian Constitution, which ranks among the finest treatises of its kind in the Democratic world and catapulted Bhimrao into a revered ‘Babasaheb’ for his followers all over.

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