Paralysed Governance

For a party that boasts of political dominance across the country, the imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur is a striking admission of failure on the BJP’s part. That a BJP-led state administration had to be suspended under Article 356 - a measure usually deployed when opposition parties are in power - exposes the paralysis within the party’s local leadership and its inability to govern effectively in one of India’s most volatile regions.

Manipur has been in turmoil for over two years, caught in the grip of ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities that has left hundreds dead and thousands displaced. Yet, the BJP, both at the Centre and in the state, seemed incapable of dousing the flames or commanding the confidence of its own legislators. Instead of resolving the crisis politically, the state deteriorated into dysfunction. The resignation of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh amid accusations of instigating violence and increasing intra-party dissidence was the tipping point. The failure to appoint a successor in time meant that the state assembly could not be convened before the six-month constitutional deadline, forcing New Delhi’s hand.

This marks the 11th time since 1951 that President’s Rule has been imposed in Manipur. But unlike past instances, this time it is not the opposition’s alleged misrule that is being punished. Rather, it is the BJP’s internal disarray, an embarrassing reflection of its inability to handle political management despite a third term at the Centre. That RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, the party’s ideological mentor, had publicly admonished the Modi government last year for its inaction underscores the gravity of this failure.

The consequences of this political vacuum are significant. For one, the Centre’s direct rule might further alienate Manipur’s people, particularly in the context of ethnic hostilities that have already tested their faith in the state and national governments. The BJP, which won a resounding mandate in February 2022, is now left facing a rebellion from its own ranks.

Yet, Biren’s resignation has not led to a smooth transition. The BJP’s inability to select a new leader exposed a faction-ridden party. At this critical time, Prime Minister Modi is abroad, having visited France and now, is touring the U.S.

For the Congress, which has been demanding Biren Singh’s resignation for nearly two years, this is a moment of vindication. But the deeper issue remains: why did it take so long for action to be taken? Home Minister Amit Shah, entrusted by Modi to manage the crisis, has failed spectacularly. The delay in intervention only deepened the wounds, both political and communal.

Manipur’s latest brush with President’s Rule does not signal an end to its troubles. The ethnic tensions that triggered the violence remains unresolved and any return to democratic rule will require both political consensus and public trust, both of which are lamentably in short supply. The BJP’s grip over the northeast appears to be loosening. It faces the stark choice of either rallying behind a new leader capable of stabilizing the state or risk losing its grip altogether. Given the BJP’s track record so far, the latter appears more likely.