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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

Pawar’s Muslim Diplomacy

Updated: Nov 18, 2024

The NCP (SP) is banking on its Muslim faces to consolidate the community’s votes

Pawar’s Muslim Diplomacy

Mumbai: Last month when Fahad Ahmad’s name was announced by the NCP (SP) as its candidate from Anushaktinagar, it brought a sprinkling of stardust to the elections; Ahmad is known to most as actor Swara Bhaskar’s husband. The outspoken neta of the Samajwadi Party was now suddenly in the NCP (SP). He was the party’s best bet to counter Sana Malik who is fielded by Ajit Pawar’s NCP.


Sharad Pawar’s choice of candidates shows that he is putting faith in the party’s young faces, including young Muslim faces that can appeal to the electorate from the community. Anish Gawande, national spokesperson of the NCP (SP) had earlier stated that the party had declared that it would give a chance to new faces. “These young faces are a reflection of our society and what people want—these candidates are young, dynamic and agile,” he says.


According to the 2011 census, Maharashtra has 1.30 crore Muslims who account for around 11 per cent of the population. The party, as a leader says, does not want to be anathema to any community or religion and hence, wants representation of most. “Muslim will not pick BJP or its allies as their natural choice. Our party stands to gain from this consolidation of votes,” says a party leader.


It helps that most of the Muslim faces are relatively young. If Fahad is in Mumbai, Mahebub Shaikh is the state president of the youth wing of the party. He was a fiery voice during the recent Shivswarajya Yatra and is the party’s candidate from Ashti in Beed, the region that is facing intense quota unrest and is likely to go against the Mahayuti alliance.


The value of these leaders is evident from what Babajani Durrani said while returning to Sharad Pawar after a stint with Ajit Pawar’s NCP. “During the Lok Sabha elections, we saw that Muslims and Dalits did not vote for us only because we are in alliance with BJP, Shinde Sena. For the last ten years, despite India being a robust democracy, Muslims are being targeted,” the Parbhani leader had said when he returned to the party.


The NCP (SP) realises that it now stands to gain the Muslim and Dalit vote which is unlikely to go to Ajit Pawar ever since he forged an alliance with the BJP. An NCP (SP) leader explains that the party is banking on the MADHAV combination of Marathas, Dhangars, Vanjaris along with Muslims and Dalits to consolidate its votes. At such a time, having prominent Muslim leaders gives the community confidence that the party will work for its interests. “We also need to find a replacement for someone like Nawab Mallik and these young faces have a longer career ahead of them,” says the party leader.

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