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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a...

BJP closer to RS majority as strategic gains reshape math

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party has moved decisively closer to an outright majority in the Rajya Sabha after the latest biennial polls, a shift that political strategists say is the product of careful arithmetic, opportunistic cross voting and a sustained focus on state level strength. With the ruling party now holding 106 of the 245 seats in the Upper House, it stands 17 short of the 123 seat majority mark; yet the pattern of recent results and the calendar of forthcoming vacancies make a clear path to an absolute majority by 2028 increasingly plausible. The immediate momentum came from the most recent contest for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, where the ruling combine secured 22 seats against the opposition’s 15. That outcome not only added two seats beyond the BJP’s assured tally but also exposed fault lines within the opposition, where discipline lapses and strategic miscalculations allowed the ruling side to convert narrow advantages into concrete gains. Analysts point to instances of cross voting and the inability of opposition parties to present united slates as decisive factors that amplified the BJP’s returns beyond what raw assembly numbers might have predicted. In the months ahead, 35 more Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for election, with vacancies arising in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Based on current assembly compositions, projections suggest the BJP could add roughly six seats in the near term, nudging its tally to about 112. That incremental growth, while not decisive on its own, tightens the margin and increases the leverage the party enjoys in parliamentary negotiations. Next Calendar The calendar beyond the immediate cycle further favors the ruling party. In 2027 only a handful of seats — largely from Kerala — are due to fall vacant, offering little opportunity for a major shift. The pivotal year appears to be 2028, when multiple vacancies are expected in politically consequential states. Maharashtra, where the BJP’s legislative strength allows it to elect more candidates than the number of retiring members, and Uttar Pradesh, which will see a significant tranche of 11 seats vacated, are likely to be the main battlegrounds. Given the BJP’s current foothold in both states, party strategists and observers alike regard the 2028 cycle as the most probable moment when the 17 seat deficit could be erased. Political operatives describe the BJP’s approach as a blend of long term state level investment and short term tactical manoeuvres. At the state level, the party has focused on winning assembly elections and building alliances that translate into Rajya Sabha strength. Tactically, the recent polls demonstrated an ability to exploit divisions within the opposition, whether through direct negotiations with regional leaders, leveraging dissident legislators, or capitalising on the fragmented nature of multi party contests. The result is a steady accumulation of seats that, over successive biennial cycles, compounds into a structural advantage in the Upper House. For the opposition, the challenge is two-fold: to defend regional strongholds in the upcoming state elections and to maintain internal cohesion. The Rajya Sabha’s indirect electoral mechanism means that every state assembly contest carries national significance; a swing in a single assembly can alter the Upper House calculus months later. Opposition leaders face the immediate task of shoring up their legislative numbers and preventing defections or tactical cross voting that could further erode their position.

Planning for Children's Wedding

As wedding season returns, many of us attend functions and realise how expensive a modern wedding has become. A wedding is not only an emotional milestone but also a major financial milestone for any family. If you have children or plan to have children, preparing for their future wedding expenses should be treated as an important financial goal.


Among the major financial goals that families typically plan for, such as buying a home, purchasing a car, taking vacations, funding children’s higher education, and building a retirement corpus, saving for a child’s wedding is equally significant. Wedding expenses are usually very large and cannot be managed from regular monthly income. This makes it necessary to start saving and investing specifically for this purpose.


Setting the financial goal:

A financial goal is any large expenditure that cannot be handled from the current monthly income. Since wedding costs are substantial and rise with inflation, it is important to begin planning early. The best time to start is today.


Consider this example:

If your child is likely to get married in 15 years, and the estimated cost of the wedding today is Rs 30 lakh, you must factor in inflation. At an inflation rate of 7 percent annually, the cost of that wedding can rise to around Rs 83 lakh in 15 years.


How much to save and invest?

To build a corpus of Rs 83 lakh over the next 15 years, consistent investing is essential. Assuming an annual return of 12 percent on a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in mutual funds, you would need to invest approximately Rs 18,000 per month to reach the target. This SIP should be exclusively dedicated to the wedding fund. Other important financial goals such as your retirement or your child’s education should have their own separate SIPs. SIPs can be viewed as “Sapna in Progress” - a dream that moves closer to reality with every disciplined monthly contribution.


Saving alone will not help you achieve long-term goals. To beat inflation and grow your wealth meaningfully, only mutual funds, stocks, and gold should be considered for long-term horizons. Traditional low-return options may not grow your money sufficiently.


Planning ahead:

Financial planning is not a one-size-fits-all process. Every family has different goals, timelines, and financial capacity. Consulting a qualified financial advisor is extremely important. Advisors bring education, experience, and expertise that can help you calculate your specific requirements, design the right investment strategy, and make adjustments as life circumstances change.


Final word:

Start early, stay disciplined, and invest wisely. A well-structured plan will ensure that when life’s important moments, such as your child’s wedding, arrive, you are financially ready and able to enjoy the occasion with peace of mind.


(The author is a Chartered Accountant and CFA (USA). Financial Advisor. Views personal. He could be reached on 9833133605.)

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