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By:

Rajiv Shah

22 September 2025 at 8:32:23 pm

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger...

New Alliances, New Pressures, New Fault Lines

To its west, old relationships in the Gulf are acquiring new strategic and military dimensions. Across the Atlantic, Washington is increasingly using tariffs as an instrument of foreign policy. At the same time, India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and prepares to host its summit when the grouping is being watched in the West as a potential challenge to the American-dominated global financial order. Individually, these developments may appear unrelated. Put together, they reveal a larger geopolitical churn in which alliances, energy, trade, currencies and economic coercion are becoming interconnected. India finds itself almost at its centre. The emerging Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan security equation deserves particular attention. Saudi Arabia brings enormous financial and energy influence; Türkiye possesses considerable military strength, NATO experience and an expanding defence industry; Pakistan brings a large military establishment and nuclear capability with the open support of Washington. Any arrangement containing a collective-defence commitment naturally acquires significance beyond ordinary diplomatic cooperation. Alongside it, another strategic convergence has gradually developed among India, Israel and the UAE. It would be incorrect to describe this as a formal military alliance. Yet geopolitics does not operate through defence treaties alone. India's extensive defence and technology relationship with Israel, its rapidly expanding economic and strategic partnership with the UAE, and the UAE-Israel relationship following the Abraham Accords have created considerable common ground. I2U2—bringing together India, Israel, the UAE and the United States—added another institutional dimension. Thus, without necessarily becoming opposing military camps, two interesting strategic formations are visible across West Asia: Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan and the looser India–UAE–Israel convergence. Balancing Challenge India faces a similar balancing challenge. The Gulf is not a distant geopolitical theatre for New Delhi. Nearly nine million Indians live and work there. India's energy security, investments, trade and remittance flows are closely connected with the region. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor also requires relative stability across this geography. Polarisation in West Asia can therefore rapidly become an Indian economic and strategic problem. There is another question Indian planners cannot ignore. If a future India-Pakistan confrontation escalates, how would any collective-defence commitment involving Pakistan be interpreted by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye? It would be alarmist to assume that either country would automatically enter a conflict against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has substantial economic and strategic interests in maintaining good relations with New Delhi. Nevertheless, defence planners are paid to examine possibilities before they become crises. While these equations develop in India's neighbourhood, economic pressure is emerging from Washington. The US Senate has voted 86–11 for legislation intended to increase pressure on Russia by targeting major purchasers of Russian energy. The measure could authorise tariffs reaching 100 per cent against goods from countries continuing large-scale purchases of Russian oil and gas, with India among those potentially exposed. China is powerful enough to shrug off similar challenges from the West." However this does not mean that America has already imposed a 100 per cent tariff on India. Further legislative steps remain necessary, and presidential waiver provisions are important. But the overwhelming Senate vote carries a political message that New Delhi cannot dismiss. Tariffs are no longer merely tools of trade protection; they have become instruments of geopolitical coercion. Washington's argument is understandable: revenues from Russian petroleum help sustain Moscow's economy during the Ukraine war, and reducing those revenues increases pressure on Russia. But in that case what about European countries who too were/are customers of Russian oil? India's question is equally legitimate: who should determine where India purchases the energy required by more than 1.4 billion people? If Russian crude remains commercially advantageous and helps contain domestic energy costs, New Delhi cannot reasonably be expected to make every energy decision according to another country's geopolitical priorities. Strategic partnership cannot become strategic obedience. This is where BRICS enters the larger picture. India holds the BRICS presidency in 2026 and will host its leaders at an unusually sensitive moment. BRICS is no longer merely the original grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its expansion has considerably increased its demographic, energy and geopolitical weight. More importantly, discussions around BRICS increasingly touch a sensitive nerve in Washington: alternative payment mechanisms, local-currency trade, development finance and the possibility of gradually reducing dependence upon the dollar-dominated international financial system. The BRICS Summit this time is poised to take some decisive steps which may affect western interests especially US. (The writer is an advocate, legal, geopolitical and public policy analyst. Views personal.)

Polygraph Testing: A Double-Edged Sword in Modern Legal Investigations

Updated: Oct 21, 2024

Polygraph Testing: A Double-Edged Sword in Modern Legal Investigations

The polygraph, referred to as the “lie detector,” has historically been a subject of significant scholarly interest and controversy within the domains of law enforcement, security, and forensic investigation. Advocates of this technology contend that it serves as an essential instrument for revealing deception, as it purportedly identifies physiological variations linked to lying, including modifications in heart rate, blood pressure, respiration, and skin conductivity.

The inception of the polygraph can be traced to the early 20th century. Researchers William Marston and John Augustus Larson initiated experimental endeavours employing diverse methodologies to quantify physiological reactions in a quest to ascertain falsehoods. With time, the polygraph has experienced significant evolution, characterised by enhancements in sensor technologies and data analytical methodologies that facilitate more precise and dependable assessments of the physiological alterations potentially linked to deceptive behaviour.

In India, several high-profile cases have involved the use of polygraph tests. Notable cases from the 1990s include the Bombay Bomb Blast Case (1993), where Yakub Menon was convicted for his role in the serial bombings, and the Shivani Bhatnagar Journalist Murder Case (1999). In the 2000s, the Nithari Hatya Kand (2005), while the Aarushi Talwar Murder Case (2008) captured public attention. In 2007, the Mecca Masjid Hyderabad Case and the Madhumita Shukla Murder Case were widely covered. In the 2010s, cases like the Adarsh scam (2011), the Sheena Bora Murder case (2012), the 2G scam case (2012), and the Vyapam case (2013) highlighted the role of polygraph testing in complex fraud and murder cases. In 2015, the Udahmpur Attack Case, involving a Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist, and the Pathankot Airbase Attack case (2016) also saw using polygraph tests for interrogation. Hathras gang rape case (2020), Shraddha Walker Murder case (2022), and Kolkata rape-murder case (2024), are some of the recent major cases where polygraph has been used.

The Supreme Court has adopted a sophisticated perspective regarding the utilisation of polygraph results as evidentiary material in judicial processes. The Supreme Court has acknowledged the utility of polygraph examinations as a method for collecting evidence, particularly in scenarios where alternative forms of evidence may be deficient. The court has concurrently articulated apprehensions concerning their dependability and admissibility as legal evidence. In the seminal case of Selvi & Ors. vs. State of Karnataka (2010), the Supreme Court decreed that no person may be compelled to undergo a polygraph examination without their explicit consent, underscoring that such procedures are intrusive and infringe upon the fundamental right against self-incrimination as enshrined in Article 20(3) of the Indian Constitution. However, the court has allowed voluntary polygraph tests, but any information obtained may be used as supplementary or corroborative evidence.

Recent scientific innovations have sought to improve the precision of polygraph tests by exploring alternative methodologies, including the use of artificial intelligence algorithms and machine learning techniques. These approaches aim to analyse polygraph data with greater accuracy, reducing the occurrence of false positives and enhancing overall reliability. These algorithms are designed to identify subtle physiological patterns that may elude detection through traditional polygraph methodologies. As scientific and technological paradigms progress, the polygraph may ultimately establish itself as a more dependable and ethically justified instrument for truth verification; nonetheless, it is imperative to uphold a prudent and deliberate approach to its application within the judicial system.

(Keshav Kumar is a retired IPS and forensic consultant to Assam Government. Samiksha Das is Forensic Psychologist, Assistant Lecturer (OPJGU). Views personal.)

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