Run Silent, Run Deep

A dangerous game of brinkmanship instigated by China is currently brewing in the Taiwan Strait, testing the limits of the island’s sovereignty.

On January 3, Taiwan woke to yet another disruption to its critical undersea telecom cables - this time near its northern coast. Authorities have suspected the Shunxin-39, a Hong Kong-owned freighter flagged under Cameroon but linked to Chinese interests, of severing the lines. The ship evaded detailed inspection, citing rough seas and exploiting legal loopholes, leaving questions unanswered and tensions high.

This latest incident is part of a troubling pattern. Taiwan’s vital underwater infrastructure has faced repeated disruptions in recent months, causing concerns about Beijing’s escalating use of ‘gray-zone’ tactics.

Modern Taiwan is a technological powerhouse, heavily reliant on undersea cables for its internet and telecommunications. These cables, forming the arteries of global communication, are particularly vulnerable. Such acts disrupt not only Taiwan’s connectivity but also signal Beijing’s willingness to exploit vulnerabilities without crossing the threshold of outright war.

China’s approach to Taiwan has been multifaceted. While military drills near Kinmen, an island perilously close to the Chinese mainland, garner global headlines, quieter provocations like telecom cable sabotage reveal a more calculated campaign. Since February 2024, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have amplified their patrols near Kinmen. Ostensibly routine, these incursions carry an implicit message: Beijing is willing to push the boundaries of international law and Taiwanese patience.

The symbolic significance of Kinmen cannot be overstated. This tiny archipelago, with its picturesque beaches and proximity to China, epitomizes Taiwan’s vulnerability. Historically, Kinmen bore the brunt of the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions to eradicate the remnants of the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) during the Chinese Civil War. The island’s fortified beaches and determined defenders thwarted PLA advances in the 1950s. Today, Kinmen is less a site of open battle and more a testing ground for China’s gray zone provocations.

The severing of telecom cables is emblematic of a new front in hybrid warfare. By targeting critical infrastructure without overt acknowledgment, China demonstrates its ability to erode Taiwan’s defences and resilience. The strategy mirrors Russian tactics in the Baltic region, where undersea cables and pipelines have been targeted to sow uncertainty and expose vulnerabilities.

The stakes extend far beyond Taiwan. The Trans-Pacific Express cable, damaged in the recent incident, connects East Asia to the United States. Its uninterrupted functioning underpins global internet traffic, financial transactions, and military communications. The severing of such cables, even temporarily, underscores the fragility of the world’s interconnected systems.

Europe, too, is grappling with this threat. Finland’s accusation of Russian involvement in severing a power cable with Estonia highlights how underwater infrastructure is becoming a battleground for geopolitical rivals. However, for small states like Taiwan and the Baltic nations, the problem is existential.

Taiwan has sought international assistance, appealing to the European Union for technical expertise and diplomatic pressure. But response from western democracies, preoccupied with overt conflicts such as the Russo-Ukrainian War, has been muted.

The increased activity of Chinese vessels in its waters, coupled with military exercises targeting front-line islands, signals Beijing’s willingness to choke Taiwan. These provocations coincide with a shift in Taiwan’s leadership. The inauguration of Lai Ching-te, a staunch advocate for Taiwanese sovereignty, has exacerbated tensions. Beijing’s disdain for Lai’s pro-democracy stance has translated into escalated military drills and heightened incursions.

For China, these actions are part of a larger playbook. Gray-zone operations, be it cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and maritime incursions, aim to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, undermine its economy and erode its resolve. Beijing’s ultimate goal—bringing Taiwan under its control— hinges as much on economic and psychological warfare as on military might.

The tensions in the Taiwan Strait are not merely a bilateral issue between Taipei and Beijing but a stress test for the international order. The inability to counter gray zone tactics reveals a gap in global governance and deterrence mechanisms.