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By:

Yogesh Kumar Goyal

19 April 2026 at 12:32:19 pm

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s...

The Exit Poll Mirage

While exit polls sketch a dramatic map of India’s electoral mood, the line between projection and verdict remains perilously thin. With the ballots across five politically pivotal arenas of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry falling silent until the results are announced on May 4, poll surveyors have filled the vacuum with exit poll numbers that excite, alarm and often mislead. These projections have already begun shaping narratives well before D-Day on May 4. If India’s electoral history offers any lesson, it is that exit polls illuminate trends, not truths. Bengal’s Brinkmanship Nowhere is the drama more intense than in West Bengal, arguably the most keenly watched contest among all five arenas. The contest for its 294 seats has long transcended the state’s borders, becoming a proxy for national ambition. Most exit polls now point to a striking possibility of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) majority, in some cases a commanding one. Such an outcome would mark a political earthquake. For decades, Bengal has resisted the BJP’s advances, its politics shaped instead by regional forces - first the Left Front, then Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Yet the arithmetic of the polls suggests that the BJP’s campaign built on organisational muscle and the promise of ‘parivartan’ (change) may have finally breached that wall. The TMC, meanwhile, appears to be grappling with anti-incumbency and persistent allegations of corruption. Still, one outlier poll suggests it could yet retain power, a reminder that Bengal’s electorate has a habit of confounding linear predictions. Here, more than anywhere else, the gap between projection and reality may prove widest. Steady Script If Bengal is volatile, the Assam outcome looks fairly settled. Across agencies, there is near unanimity that the BJP-led alliance is poised not just to retain power, but to do so comfortably. With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, most estimates place the ruling coalition well above that threshold, in some cases approaching triple digits. The opposition Congress alliance, by contrast, appears stranded far behind. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP has fused development rhetoric with a keen sense of identity politics, crafting a coalition that has proved resilient. A third consecutive term would underline the party’s deepening institutional hold over the state. Kerala, by contrast, may be returning to its old rhythm. For decades, the state has alternated power between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with metronomic regularity. The LDF broke that pattern in the last election, securing an unprecedented second term. Exit polls now suggest that experiment may be short-lived. Most projections place the UDF comfortably above the 71-seat majority mark in the 140-member assembly, with the LDF trailing significantly. If borne out, this would reaffirm Kerala’s instinctive resistance to prolonged incumbency. Governance records matter here, but so does a deeply ingrained political culture that treats alternation as a form of accountability. Familiar Duel? Tamil Nadu, long dominated by its Dravidian titans, shows little appetite for disruption as per most exit polls, which place M.K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance above the halfway mark of 118 in the 234-seat assembly. Yet, some sections have suggested a possible upset could be staged by actor Vijay’s TVK, the wildcard in the Tamil Nadu battle. Most polls, however, are clear that the opposition AIADMK alliance, though competitive, seems unlikely to unseat the incumbent DMK. In Puducherry, the smallest of the five contests, the implications may nonetheless be outsized. Exit polls give the BJP-led alliance a clear majority in the 30-seat assembly, relegating the Congress-led bloc to a distant second. Numerically modest, the result would carry symbolic weight. A victory here would further entrench the BJP’s presence in the south, a region where it has historically struggled to gain ground. For all their allure, exit polls are imperfect instruments. They rest on limited samples, extrapolated across vast and diverse electorates. In a country where millions vote, the opinions of a few thousand can only approximate reality and often fail to capture its nuances. There is also the problem of the ‘silent voter’ - individuals who either conceal their preferences or shift them late. Recent elections have offered ample reminders. In states such as Haryana and Jharkhand, and even in Maharashtra where margins were misjudged, exit polls have erred, and sometimes dramatically sp. Moreover, the modern exit poll is as much a media event as a methodological exercise. Packaged with graphics, debates and breathless commentary, it fills the void between voting and counting with a sense of immediacy that may be more theatrical than analytical. That said, to dismiss them entirely would be too easy. Exit polls do serve a purpose in sketching broad contours, highlighting regional variations and offering clues about voter sentiment. For political parties, they are early signals and act as tentative guides for observers. Taken together, this cycle’s exit polls suggest a broad, if tentative, pattern of the BJP consolidating in the east and north-east, and opposition alliances regaining ground in parts of the south, and continuity prevailing in key states. But patterns are not outcomes and only counted votes confer legitimacy. It is only on May 4 when the sealed electronic voting machines will deliver that clarity. They will determine whether Bengal witnesses a political rupture or a resilient incumbent, whether Assam’s stability holds, whether Kerala’s pendulum swings back, and whether Tamil Nadu stays its course. (The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst. Views personel.)

Seafarers’ Mental Health and Fatigue: Causes and Solutions

There is a lot of buzz on Seafarer’s mental health, harassment, work-life balance, etcetera. These issues came into limelight during the COVID and impacted all industries globally. The seafarers too were impacted, primarily as an outcome of uncertainty in getting a reliever for signing off and going home. The virus also generated fear of life disrupting the normal thought process for the 8 billion on the planer. So, attributing (mental health, harassment, work-life balance) as a ‘mariner (Seafarer) problem’ is not just grossly misleading but utterly rubbish.


It appears that the hype around Seafarer wellness is more centred around a business opportunity at the cost of marine professionals and the shipping industry. It is pathetic that even ex-Mariners are jumping and harping on this.


Two of the most important issues which can disturb the peace of mind of any Employee as well as a Seafarer in the marine environment are:

a. Inadequate wages (which leads to incapacity of a Seafarer to provide reasonable comfort to their family)


b. Lengthy contracts (which keeps them away from family for 6 to 9 months)


But CEO’s and Onasis of the Shipping industry shy away and turn a blind eye, because this is going to cut their bottom line profits. Thus ‘mental health’ seems to be a conspiracy of convenience created by vested interests and promoted by Shipping companies to cover these two significant issues. The survey results below of 128 active Seafarers highlights their key concerns.


Survey done by JAG Consultants, Singapore

If professional Psychiatrists find it a challenge to cure patients, then are ‘mental health’ and ‘work life balance’ Consulting firms really doing something to (superficially) improve seafarer well-being or are they just making hay while the sun shines? Is it a sugar coated pill which contains chalk powder?


It is time the Seafarers rise and tell their employers that we are mentally sound, sharp and responsible professionals shipping over 14 billion tonnes of cargo worldwide. It is hoped that Seafarer unions reputed to be ‘running with the hare (seafarers) and hunting with the hounds (shipping company) take note and stop this disrespectful exploitation of Seafarers self respect and labelling seafarers and the marine profession as a bunch of irresponsible lunatics.


Seafarers in 20th Century

Interestingly these terms were unheard of in 20th century, when seafarers were ‘paid well’ and ‘respected' for the sacrifice they made, to live a life in isolation, away from the normal, full of risks and also staying away from family.


In 20th century, the seafarer wages were 75 per cent or more of the OPEX (Operational expenses) which have been squeezed to around 55 per cent in the last 15 years. Even the average global inflation of about 5 per cent has been ignored, while their counterparts working in the shore office of the Shipping company get a wage rise regularly. Stop their wage rise and they too will require ‘wellness’ consultants. Thus, how fair is it to expect ‘quality and commitment’ from seafarers when they are left to just a ‘superficial’ increase in wages, linked to a falling national currency v/s the dollar?


Industry ignoring the writing on the wall

One does not need be ‘Harvard returned’, nor is there a need for a 'seafarer survey'. It does not even require 'common sense' which may be deficient in maritime stalwarts. Even an average student in primary class, will be able to conclude that all that is required to un-do this mess created by Ship Owners, Ship Management companies and supported by Charterers, is:

a. 50 per cent increase in wages, to compensate for 15 years backlog and

b. 50 per cent reduction in contract durations, to enable seafarers spend more time with family, improve well-being and perform with greater efficiency when they return from leave. Thus lesser incidents and claims improving bottom line profit.


How can the Shipping industry prevent DALI's and Wakashio's with a crew on-board that is ‘under-paid’ and ‘mentally disturbed and physically fatigued’?


Employees follow their leaders

Let’s analyse what the experts in (GMF) Global Maritime Forum consider necessary for Seafarers:

  • Fostering respect and inclusion: CEO’s should first set an example with Seafarers working in their own company. Respect their sharp mind and mental fitness.

  • Zero tolerance for abuse and harassment: CEO’s should first STOP the abuse, harassment and bullying of Seafarers by paying them inadequate wages and making them sign lengthy contracts. (Take it or Leave it)

  • Transparent criteria to ensure fairness and equal opportunities: CEO’s should first be transparent about their own million dollar bonuses, their first class travel or private jets, which they may have earned at the cost of hard-working seafarers.

  • Offer flexible contract lengths: Hope CEO’s do not negotiate ‘flexible contracts’ with reduction in wages.


Last and not the least, GMF should check the source and sample of their survey of 400 seafarers. Key concern of 128 active seafarers as survey are:

» 70 Per cent Seek an increase in wages

» 24 Per cent Want reduction in length of contract

» 1 Per cent Preventing abuse and harassment

» 10 Per cent Seek increase in manning levels


A CEO’s short term vision

While the global unemployment rate is around 5 per cent but the Shipping industry is facing a shortage of Seafarers which is now at a 17 year high. As per present trend this shortage is only going to increase. The current situation is unsustainable and seafarers are left with limited options. What is necessary is a call for a “collective industry-wide agreement” and a transparent framework for ‘wage increase and regular review’ and ‘reduction in the duration of contract’. These were the key issues even in the 20th century and will remain so in future. Get these two in GOOD order and then we can certainly hope that Seafarers will be a happy lot and will also lead to a reduction in the frequency and intensity of DALI’s and WAKASHIO’s.


(The author is a Shipping and Marine consultant. Member Singapore Shipping Association and empanelled with IMO as a specialist consultant.)

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