Small vs. Mighty: Lithuania’s Strategic Shift Against China

Lithuania, a small northeastern European country of just 65,000 square kilometres and a population of 2.8 million has emerged as a source of diplomatic tension for China. In contrast, China is a vast nation with approximately 9.6 million square kilometres and a population of 1.4 billion.

Lithuania, annexed by the USSR in 1944 during World War II, gained independence in 1990, becoming the first country to break free from Soviet control. China was among the first countries to recognise Lithuania’s independence, seeing it as a strategic foothold in the Baltic region despite Lithuania’s limited economic significance. Diplomatic relations were established in September 1991 with China opening its embassy in Lithuania in 1992, followed by Lithuania’s embassy in China in 1995.

Relations between the two countries remained sluggish as Lithuania focused more on building stronger ties with Europe and the United States, eventually culminating in Lithuania joining the EU and NATO in 2004. Following its EU membership, trade between Lithuania and China began to grow, with Lithuania exporting machinery, electronics, and agricultural products to China, and importing consumer goods.

China sought to expand trade and investment in Central and Eastern Europe, forming a group with 16 countries from the region, including Lithuania in 2012, known as “16+1”. In 2019, Greece’s entry made it “17+1”. Trade between China and Lithuania increased through the EU and “17+1”, as did concerns about China’s policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Similar concerns were rising in other EU countries, leading to declining relations with China.

Geopolitical shifts emerged with Donald Trump’s presidency in 2016 as he reassessed US trade policies and global involvement, sparking a new cold war with China. The US also began pressuring its allies to join in exerting pressure on China.

Some young lawmakers from Lithuania’s conservative Homeland Union-Christian Democratic Party (TS-LKD) saw this as an opportunity to shift Lithuanian foreign policy focus from China to Taiwan, believing that this would please the US and bolster Lithuania’s leadership claim within the EU. They argued that Taiwan is a small democratic nation facing pressure from a powerful authoritarian neighbour, so Lithuania should stand with it rather than align with China.

In 2019, following a visit to Taiwan, Lithuanian parliamentarians proposed establishing formal diplomatic relations. They reasoned that such a partnership would enhance Lithuania’s national security and high-tech industry development while helping Taiwan preserve its democracy. Their efforts gained traction, securing support from the Lithuanian President and the Liberal Party (LS), amid other ongoing concerns about leasing Lithuania’s main port to a Chinese company.

In the same year, a split in the Liberal Party led to the Freedom Party (LP) formation, whose members also supported closer ties with Taiwan. Following the October 2020 parliamentary elections, a new coalition government led by TS-LKD was formed.

In March 2021, Lithuania announced plans to open a diplomatic office in Taiwan while reducing involvement in the “17+1” group, citing insufficient economic benefits. In August 2021, Taiwan announced the opening of a representative office in Lithuania under the name “Taiwan” instead of the customary name “Taipei,” defying China’s “One China” policy. In response, China recalled its ambassador, expelled the Lithuanian ambassador, and imposed undeclared boycotts on Lithuanian companies. By 2022, Lithuania fully exited the group, angering China.

Lithuania then sought support from the EU and the US, securing new business alternatives that helped stabilise its economy. The EU and the US, already in conflict with China, saw an opportunity to counter China’s influence by backing Lithuania. Lithuania’s limited economic dependence on China also made this strategy feasible.

However, this situation has resurfaced due to the upcoming elections in Lithuania and the U.S. Taiwan fears that a pro-China government in Lithuania might compel it to withdraw. Similarly, the US presidential election could alter US-China relations, impacting countries like Lithuania and Taiwan. However, strong anti-China sentiments in Lithuania make a rapid policy shift unlikely.

While the future course of action largely depends on the outcomes of Lithuanian and US elections, Lithuania has shown that even a small country can challenge a giant like China by playing its cards wisely. This gambit serves as a valuable lesson for other countries around the world.

(The writer is an IT professional. Views personal)