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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the...

NDA power matrix reshaped after success

AI generated image Mumbai: A quiet coup in the state has triggered a loud shift in the power dynamics of the nation’s capital. By engineering the defection of six additional MPs, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has nearly doubled his parliamentary muscle, transforming his Shiv Sena faction from a junior regional partner into an indispensable pillar of the NDA. Now sitting on a commanding 13 seats, Shinde has dramatically increased his political leverage—leaving a cautious BJP to weigh the cost of an emboldened ally demanding a bigger slice of the pie in both the Union and state cabinets. In a masterstroke of political engineering that has profoundly jolted political landscape, Shinde has once again demonstrated his formidable capacity for disruption. The rebellion of six out of nine Lok Sabha Members of Parliament from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), ostensibly joining Shinde’s ranks under the banner of “Operation Tiger,” is not merely a regional skirmish. It is a calculated power play that reverberates through the highest corridors of power in New Delhi. By nearly doubling his party’s strength in the lower house from seven to thirteen MPs, Shinde has dramatically altered his own political trajectory, elevating his faction from a helpful regional ally to an indispensable pillar of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Shinde’s Stature The immediate consequence of this crossover is a massive surge in Shinde’s stature within the NDA hierarchy. With thirteen parliamentarians, his Shiv Sena is now poised to become the fourth-largest bloc in the ruling national coalition, sitting just behind the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Telugu Desam Party, and the newly formed Nationalist Citizens Party of India. This numerical leap is of immense strategic value to the BJP-led central government. In a parliamentary environment where the ruling coalition possesses only a modest majority, every single seat counts. The central leadership is acutely aware of upcoming legislative hurdles, particularly ambitious constitutional amendments like the proposed delimitation bill, which will require a formidable two-thirds majority. By acting as the architect of this crucial numerical boost, Shinde has cemented his reputation as a reliable and highly effective operator for the NDA, significantly increasing his bargaining power and political leverage. National Relief For the BJP, this development evokes a complex mixture of profound national relief and acute regional anxiety. From the vantage point of PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Shinde’s successful poaching operation is a clear windfall. It simultaneously fortifies the NDA’s numerical strength in New Delhi while severely crippling a vocal opposition force in Maharashtra. The central BJP leadership views Shinde as a vital asset capable of bridging the gap between their current numbers and the overwhelming mandates of the past. However, the perspective from the Maharashtra BJP headquarters is noticeably more apprehensive. State BJP leaders openly acknowledge Shinde’s soaring political equity, but they are increasingly wary of his expanding ambitions. They recognize that an emboldened Shinde, eager to fill the political vacuum left by Uddhav Thackeray and a fragmented Nationalist Congress Party, will aggressively attempt to expand his footprint across the state, potentially encroaching upon the BJP’s own traditional support bases. Power Sharing This dramatically enhanced political heft immediately raises pressing questions regarding power-sharing arrangements, both at the Centre and in the state. Armed with thirteen MPs, Shinde’s camp is undoubtedly preparing to seek greater political rewards. In the Union Cabinet, his demand for an additional, high-profile ministerial berth is now backed by solid arithmetic. Given his heightened utility to the national coalition, the BJP high command is highly likely to accommodate this request during the next cabinet reshuffle. However, the power struggle within the Maharashtra state cabinet promises to be far more contentious. Shinde, who had to settle for the Deputy Chief Ministership behind Devendra Fadnavis following the last assembly elections, may now feel emboldened to petition the BJP leadership for the top job. The BJP’s state unit is actively preparing to fiercely resist any such demand. Senior BJP leaders are quick to emphasize that despite his parliamentary gains, Shinde’s legislative strength in the state assembly hovers around 57 MLAs, dwarfed by the BJP’s commanding 132 legislators. Consequently, conceding the Chief Minister’s chair remains highly improbable. Instead, the BJP will be forced into a delicate balancing act, likely appeasing Shinde by granting his faction a larger share of influential, heavyweight portfolios within the state government to keep the alliance stable. Ultimately, through sheer political audacity, Eknath Shinde has ensured that neither New Delhi nor Mumbai can afford to govern without catering to his increasingly formidable political weight.

Statehood for Mithila: Political Gambit or Cultural Necessity?

Statehood for Mithila

RJD leader Rabri Devi’s renewed demand for Mithila statehood has electrified Bihar’s political discourse, spotlighting a region long celebrated for its cultural richness yet stymied by poverty and chronic neglect. By raising the prospect of statehood for Mithilanchal—a region spanning 20 districts and home to one-third of Bihar’s population—the former Chief Minister has laid down a political gauntlet, aimed squarely at the BJP-led NDA.


Her call coincides with the Centre’s release of a Maithili translation of the Constitution, a move that BJP leaders have touted as a gesture of respect for the Maithili-speaking populace.


The Mithila region is a paradox. Renowned globally for its Madhubani art and its cultural legacy, it suffers from abysmal socio-economic indicators. Recurrent floods devastate its agrarian economy, and a burgeoning population exacerbates its struggles. The demand for Mithila statehood, first articulated in 1912 during the bifurcation of Bihar from Bengal, has simmered on the margins of public discourse for decades, championed intermittently by cultural activists and regional leaders. Rabri Devi’s intervention marks the first time a senior, non-Mithila politician has embraced the cause.


The inclusion of Maithili in the Eighth Schedule in 2003 was a milestone, celebrated as the culmination of a century-long struggle for linguistic identity, championed by activists and backed by political leaders. Yet, two decades later, promises of development and cultural revival remain unfulfilled. Maithili has languished, with token measures like primary school instruction and support for the Maithili Academy falling by the wayside due to lack of funds and political will. This neglect stems from a calculated resistance to dilute Hindi’s dominance.


The Mithilanchal gambit also plays directly into Bihar’s electoral matrix. With Mithilanchal accounting for over 100 of the state’s 243 assembly seats, the RJD-led Opposition bloc is clearly eyeing a pivotal region where the BJP has a significant foothold. By championing statehood, the RJD seeks to upend the BJP’s narrative, positioning itself as the true custodian of Maithili aspirations. The BJP, which has historically touted its commitment to cultural pride—having added Maithili to the Eighth Schedule under Atal Bihari Vajpayee—may find itself on the defensive.


The call for statehood is not without its ironies. Rabri Devi’s husband, Lalu Prasad Yadav, famously opposed the creation of Jharkhand, declaring its bifurcation from Bihar would happen only over his dead body. When Jharkhand was ultimately carved out in 2000 under pressure from Congress, Lalu’s political authority was dented. Rabri Devi now faces a similar reckoning. Would the creation of Mithila invigorate the region or further fragment Bihar’s administrative and economic capabilities?


The BJP’s immediate response has been tepid, with leaders emphasizing the cultural value of the Maithili Constitution but avoiding the politically volatile statehood debate. This silence may not hold for long, as the INDIA bloc, of which the RJD is a key member, appears poised to amplify the demand ahead of the 2025 elections. Tejashwi Yadav, Rabri Devi’s son and the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, has already proposed the establishment of a Mithila Development Authority, signalling the RJD’s intent to anchor its campaign in the aspirations of Mithilanchal.


Yet, practical hurdles loom large. Statehood would require not just political consensus within Bihar but also approval from the Centre, which has been reticent about new state creations in recent years. Moreover, could Mithila sustain itself independently, or would it require substantial federal assistance, potentially mirroring Jharkhand’s struggles post-bifurcation?


The RJD’s gambit seeks to transform an enduring cultural aspiration into a potent political strategy. Rabri Devi’s call has revived an old question: Is statehood the panacea for regional neglect, or does it risk compounding the challenges of governance?

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