Submarines and Sabre-Rattling

The USS Alexandria’s docking in Busan has caused Pyongyang to play its familiar game of escalation and brinkmanship.

North Korea is furious following reports that the nuclear-powered American submarine, the USS Alexandria, had made a stop in the South Korean port of Busan last month. The vessel, a Los Angeles-class fast-attack submarine, is not designed to carry nuclear weapons, but its mere presence was enough to elicit a familiar chorus of threats from Pyongyang. The North Korean regime denounced the deployment while warning that it would punish the provokers. The rhetoric, though extreme, is nothing new. The Korean Peninsula has long been trapped in a cycle of military escalation, diplomatic thaw and renewed tensions.

The USS Alexandria’s arrival reinforces America’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific. While North Korea has been Washington’s most volatile irritant in the region, the Pentagon has bigger concerns, not least countering China’s growing assertiveness. The Alexandria’s deployment is as much about bolstering alliances in the region as it is about deterring Pyongyang. The submarine’s visit follows a recent air drill involving a U.S. B-1B bomber - another move North Korea decried as a provocation. To Kim Jong Un, these deployments reaffirm a long-standing belief that the United States seeks regime change in North Korea.

Since taking power in 2011, Kim has sought to solidify his grip on the regime through an aggressive nuclear weapons program. The doctrine was formally codified in 2022 when North Korea announced a law outlining five conditions under which it would use nuclear weapons, including pre-emptive strikes against threats to its leadership. In its latest outburst, Pyongyang cited two such conditions: a direct threat to its nuclear command structure and an attack on critical strategic facilities. The statement is an attempt to justify further advancements in North Korea’s weapons programs under the guise of self-defence. Recent tests of submarine-launched ballistic missiles and sea-launched cruise missiles suggest Kim is intent on expanding his nuclear delivery options.

The tensions also highlight a shift in U.S.-North Korea relations. During Donald Trump’s first presidency, the two leaders engaged in an unusual diplomatic experiment, meeting three times between 2018 and 2019. The encounters produced little beyond photo opportunities and vague promises, but they briefly reduced hostilities. Since then, however, North Korea has returned to its default posture of bellicosity punctuated by missile tests.

For South Korea, the USS Alexandria’s visit is a reminder of the country’s reliance on American security guarantees. President Yoon Suk-yeol has taken a more hawkish approach than his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who sought to engage Pyongyang with diplomacy. Under Yoon, Seoul has deepened its military cooperation with Washington, participating in more frequent joint drills and enhancing its missile defense systems. North Korea, in turn, has ramped up its threats.

The fundamental problem remains unchanged. North Korea’s nuclear program has become its ultimate bargaining chip. Despite economic sanctions, international isolation and chronic food shortages, Kim Jong Un has little incentive to abandon his weapons. In a world where regimes like Libya’s and Iraq’s fell after giving up their WMD ambitions, Pyongyang sees its arsenal as its only insurance policy. The United States, for its part, refuses to lift sanctions or ease military pressure without concrete denuclearization steps. The result is a stalemate where both sides feel justified in their actions and where every perceived provocation begets another.

Till now, Kim has shown no sign of softening his stance, and Washington has little reason to believe he would honour any commitments, given North Korea’s history of breaking agreements. The alternative is a slow but steady military buildup on both sides. North Korea will continue to brandish its nuclear ambitions, the U.S. will reaffirm its deterrence commitments, and China will watch warily from the sidelines. The Korean Peninsula remains what it has long been - a powder keg, perpetually on the verge of ignition but never quite exploding.