Tight Races

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers...

min read

Exit polls, like monsoon forecasts, are best treated with scepticism. India’s recent electoral history is littered with confident projections that dissolved on counting day. Yet even allowing for their fallibility, the latest round of projections across four states and one Union Territory offers some clear indications of churn in the east, cautious continuity in the south and consolidation in the north-east. The most keenly contested and eagerly watched state is West Bengal, where the numbers hint at something approaching change - the very slogan that once carried Mamata Banerjee to power in 2011. After 15 years of Trinamool Congress (TMC) dominance, most exit polls suggest a knife-edge contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Such a result, if borne out, would mark a structural shift. The BJP, once an afterthought in Bengal’s politics, now appears firmly entrenched as the principal challenger. Its steady expansion over the past decade, organisationally and electorally, has culminated in this moment of near parity. Yet the TMC’s resilience is equally striking. Despite anti-incumbency and an aggressive opposition campaign, it retains deep reservoirs of support, particularly in districts that reported exceptionally high turnout. That record turnout has added a further twist by magnifying volatility and making Bengal the most unpredictable theatre in this electoral cycle. If Bengal represents churn, Tamil Nadu offers a subtler story. Most exit polls give the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-Congress alliance a clear edge, pointing to a possible consecutive term for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. Yet, beneath this apparent stability lies a potential disruptor in form of actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which introduces a wildcard into a historically bipolar system. While most projections stop short of placing TVK at the top, they consistently suggest it is eating into established vote banks. More ambitious estimates suggest the TVK capable of entirely upending Tamil Nadu’s political order. Further north-east, Assam looks set to defy the broader pattern of flux. Here the story is one of consolidation. Exit polls converge on a decisive victory for the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority. Such an outcome would underline the BJP’s entrenched dominance in the state, built on a combination of organisational depth and effective leadership. For the Congress, the figures are less forgiving as it appears unable to overcome structural weaknesses that have long plagued it in the region. Elsewhere, Kerala and Puducherry hint at further shifts. The CPM-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala may be on its way out, potentially ending the country’s only Left government, while the NDA looks poised to retain Puducherry with ease. The broader lesson is that while national narratives matter, state-specific dynamics like leadership, alliances, caste equations and regional aspirations continue to shape voter behaviour. On May 4, the numbers will either vindicate or embarrass the pollsters. But the signals, however tentative, are already visible.

Tainted Governance

Correspondent
Dec 26, 2024
2 min read

Updated: Jan 2, 2025

The shocking murder of Santosh Deshmukh, sarpanch of Massajog village in Beed district, has triggered a political firestorm that has put the ruling Mahayuti coalition led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in a precarious position. Beyond the tragedy itself, the political reverberations of the incident threaten to derail the goodwill the Mahayuti gained from its commanding victory in the November assembly elections.

The facts are grim. Deshmukh, a grassroots leader known for his fight against corruption, was allegedly abducted and brutally killed after intervening in an extortion attempt at a wind power plant in his village. While the police have arrested four suspects, the alleged mastermind, Valmik Karad, is a close associate of NCP leader and Food and Civil Supplies Minister Dhananjay Munde. The opposition claims the government is shielding Karad, who has yet to be named an accused. This accusation has turned a heinous crime into a political flashpoint.

The Congress and other opposition parties have demanded Munde’s ouster from the cabinet until the investigation is complete, arguing that his continued presence undermines the credibility of the probe. Even some members of the ruling alliance have voiced their anger and demanded Karad’s arrest.

Fadnavis, who also holds the Home portfolio, has ordered a judicial inquiry and vowed that no one, however influential, will escape justice. But his assurances ring hollow as protests swell across the state. Public outrage is palpable. Over 28,000 gram panchayats in Maharashtra are set to observe a bandh on January 9, calling for swift justice and stricter laws to protect rural leaders.

Munde’s alleged links to Karad are the most contentious issue here. Keeping him in the cabinet risks eroding the Mahayuti’s credibility, especially given the minister’s influence in Beed. The Mahayuti’s decisive victory in November gave it a mandate to govern with integrity and efficiency. However, the goodwill it enjoys is not infinite. By failing to act decisively, the government risks squandering the public trust it has earned.

Fadnavis has an opportunity to set a precedent. Known for his administrative acumen, he must act swiftly to safeguard his government’s credibility. Allowing Munde to remain in the cabinet sends the wrong message, implying that political alliances trump justice. By dropping Munde from the cabinet until the probe concludes, Fadnavis could demonstrate that no individual, however influential, is above the law. Failure to do so could leave the coalition vulnerable to accusations of complicity and incompetence.

The sarpanch’s murder is not just a law-and-order failure but a litmus test for the Mahayuti’s governance. If the coalition fails to act decisively, it risks losing the trust of the very voters who propelled it to power. Justice for Deshmukh is not merely a legal issue but a moral obligation, and the Mahayuti must rise to meet it. Anything less would be a betrayal of the people’s trust and a blight on the state’s political landscape.

Tight Races

Tainted Governance

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