Talking Past the Brink

America and Iran resume negotiations, but mistrust could doom upcoming talks in Oman.

In a bid to defuse the prolonged tension between them, American and Iranian envoys finally are to resume formal nuclear talks in Oman after a pause of nearly three years later this week. In an unequivocal threat to Iran, President Donald Trump has simultaneously offered the carrot of diplomacy and the stick of bombs. Iran, characteristically suspicious and burdened by bitter memory, approaches the table at Muscat warily, insisting the negotiations remain indirect.

These talks are the latest chapter in a saga that began in 1979, when Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran, prompting a rupture that remains largely unhealed. Since then, Washington and Tehran have alternated between confrontation and cautious engagement, the high watermark being the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That deal, brokered painstakingly by the Obama administration, restricted Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. In 2018, Trump tore it up like a bad real estate contract, branding it “the worst deal ever” and reimposed sweeping sanctions under his “maximum pressure” doctrine.

Iran responded by gradually expanded its uranium enrichment and reduced cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), effectively putting the JCPOA on life support. Meanwhile, its proxies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, remained active, much to Israel’s consternation and Saudi Arabia’s unease. The assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 by U.S. forces further embittered relations.

Much like the secret backchannel talks that preceded the 2015 nuclear deal, this weekend’s forthcoming encounter is haunted by the ghost of past betrayals.

Already there is speculation that the talks may already be doomed by design. America demands Iran cease uranium enrichment entirely, dismantle its nuclear facilities and surrender its stockpiles marking, essentially, a return to the Stone Age of its nuclear ambitions. Iran, for its part, seeks sweeping sanctions relief and cast-iron guarantees that Washington won’t renege again.

That last demand is particularly ironic given it was Mr Trump’s volte-face that turned diplomacy into farce. Tehran, remembering 2018, wants an agreement not only signed in ink but seemingly etched in stone.

Europe, the perpetual middle child of international diplomacy, remains committed to the 2015 accord but finds itself pressed for time. By late July, Britain, France and Germany must decide whether to reimpose U.N. sanctions lifted under the JCPOA - a move that could close the diplomatic window. Come October, Russia takes over the presidency of the U.N. Security Council, likely shielding Iran from new penalties. Time, like enriched uranium, is running out.

Meanwhile, military theatre continues apace. American B-2 bombers have been deployed to the Gulf. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon. The U.S. and Israel are reportedly drafting attack scenarios, a grim reminder that diplomacy is often a prelude to detonation.

The real question is not whether talks occur directly or indirectly but whether either side is capable of compromise. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is playing for time, hedging with parallel talks in Moscow and Beijing, signalling that Tehran is not without options or friends.

Despite its economic woes and popular discontent, Iran is not desperate. Tehran may be bloodied, but it is not bowed. The regime has proved adept at enduring sanctions, manipulating regional turmoil and leveraging its strategic depth. Domestic unrest, while worrying, is being managed through a combination of repression and populist subsidy schemes. In other words: don’t bet on collapse.

What, then, is the point of this diplomatic kabuki in Oman? At best, it may reopen lines of communication and delay escalation. At worst, it is a prelude to conflict dressed in the costume of negotiation. The symbolism of a talk shop in Muscat while bombers warm up and missiles are readied is not lost on anyone in the region. Tea may be served this Saturday, but the sabres will still rattle.