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By:

Akhilesh Sinha

25 June 2025 at 2:53:54 pm

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest...

Nadda's strategic meet signals urgency for chemical sector

New Delhi: As war simmers across the volatile landscape of West Asia, whether in the form of a direct confrontation between Israel, United States and Iran, or through Iran's hybrid warfare involving groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, the tremors are no longer confined to the region's borders. They are coursing through the arteries of the global economy. India's chemicals and petrochemicals sector, heavily dependent on this region for critical raw materials, finds itself among the earliest and hardest hit by this geopolitical turbulence. It is in this backdrop that the recent meeting convened by Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilisers J. P. Nadda at Kartavya Bhavan must be seen not as a routine consultation, but as a signal of strategic urgency. India's ambition to scale this sector from its current valuation of $220 billion to $1 trillion by 2040, and further to $1.5 trillion by 2047, will remain aspirational unless the country confronts its structural vulnerabilities with clarity and resolve. India today ranks as the world's sixth-largest producer of chemicals and the third-largest in Asia. The sector contributes 6-7 percent to GDP and underpins a wide spectrum of industries, from agriculture and pharmaceuticals to automobiles, construction, and electronics. It would be no exaggeration to call it the backbone of modern industrial India. Yet, embedded within this strength is a paradox. India's share in the global chemical value chain (GVC) stands at a modest 3.5 percent. A trade deficit of $31 billion in 2023 underscores a deeper issue: while India produces at scale, it remains marginal in high-value segments. This imbalance becomes starkly visible when disruptions in West Asia choke the supply of key feedstocks, shaking the very foundations of domestic industry. Supply Disruption The current crisis has laid this fragility bare. Disruptions in the supply of LNG, LPG, and sulfur have led to production cuts of 30-50 percent in several segments. With nearly 65 percent of sulfur imports sourced from the Middle East, the ripple effects have extended beyond chemicals to fertilisers, plastics, textiles, and other downstream industries. Strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz have witnessed disruptions, pushing shipping costs up by 20-30 percent and adding further strain to cost structures. This is precisely where Nadda's emphasis on supply chain diversification and resilience appears prescient. In today's world, self-reliance cannot mean isolation; it must translate into strategic flexibility. While India imports crude oil from as many as 41 countries, several critical inputs for the chemical industry remain concentrated in a handful of sources, arguably the sector's most significant vulnerability. Opportunity Ahead A recent report by NITI Aayog outlines a pathway to convert this vulnerability into opportunity. It envisions raising India's GVC share to 5-6 percent by 2030 and to 12 percent by 2040. If achieved, the sector could not only reach the $1 trillion mark but also generate over 700,000 jobs. However, this transformation will demand more than policy intent, it will require sustained investment and disciplined execution. The most pressing challenge lies in research and innovation. India currently spends just 0.7 percent of industry revenue on R&D, compared to a global average of 2.3 percent. This gap explains why the country remains largely confined to basic chemicals, even as the world moves toward specialty and high-value products. Bridging this divide is essential if India is to climb the value chain. Equally constraining is the fragmented nature of the industry. Dominated by MSMEs with limited access to capital and technology, the sector struggles to compete globally. Cluster-based development models offer a pragmatic way forward, such as PCPIRs and the proposed chemical parks.

The Alarming Return of GPS Spoofing

A system glitch and suspected spoofing incident at India’s busiest airport lay bare the fragility of modern aviation.

Modern aviation depends on signals so precise they leave no room for mischief. Yet, recently, Delhi’s skies briefly slipped into something close to chaos when a critical system failure compounded by suspected GPS spoofing forced controllers at India’s busiest airport to navigate blind. Nearly 800 flights were delayed, radar screens lost vital data and pilots were left switching to old-fashioned radio beacons. The incident is a wake-up call about how vulnerable India’s airspace is to increasingly sophisticated electronic interference.


For the uninitiated, GPS spoofing is a well-known cyber technique in which an attacker broadcasts a counterfeit satellite signal stronger than the genuine one. As GPS receivers are designed to latch onto the strongest signal available, the device begins to calculate its position not from an orbiting satellite but from the attacker’s transmitter. This differs from the more familiar jamming, which simply blocks a signal; spoofing misleads rather than silences. For ships, aircraft, drones, telecom networks and financial systems that rely on precise timing and location, the implications are severe. In aviation, which depends on accuracy to keep craft separated and properly routed, spoofing is downright dangerous.


Security threat

A spoofing attack typically unfolds in stages. First, the attacker mimics the structure of legitimate GPS signals. Then, by gradually increasing power, the fake signal overwhelms the real one. The receiver, unable to distinguish the authentic from the bogus. locks onto the counterfeit stream, recalculating its position based on false coordinates. In the wrong hands, such manipulation could divert containers at sea, misroute aircraft or compromise the timing systems that underpin everything from telecom towers to stock exchanges. Even personal smartphones could be tricked into offering false locations, enabling identity theft or data breaches. It is little wonder that governments treat spoofing as a national-security threat.


India received a sharp reminder of that on November 6. That evening, controllers at the Delhi Air Navigation Services Centre (DNAS) began noticing missing flight-plan data on their terminals. Within minutes, it became clear that the Automatic Message Switching System (AMSS) - the core platform responsible for routing and processing flight plans across India’s airspace - had stopped transmitting information. Without AMSS, controllers could see radar blips, but nothing about the aircraft behind them: not their flight paths, not their altitudes, not their intended routes or departure data.  Controllers were manually verifying each position and giving clearances one by one. For one of the world’s busiest airspaces, that is aviation’s equivalent of reverting from autopilot to pencil and paper.


The consequences were swift. Nearly 800 flights were delayed as processing speed collapsed; each flight plan had to be recreated, verified and cross-checked manually. What should take seconds stretched to several minutes per aircraft. India’s air-traffic system, which handles more than 1,500 daily flights in the Delhi region alone, ground into an uncharacteristic crawl. The Airports Authority of India (AAI) later described the glitch as unprecedented.


Around the same time, pilots flying near Delhi began reporting possible GPS spoofing. In such situations, crews must abandon satellite-based navigation and revert to older, ground-based aids such as the Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range (VOR) system, which uses fixed radio beacons to guide aircraft. Air-traffic controllers, already burdened by a crippled flight-data system, had to provide headings manually until aircraft systems stabilised. It is a tedious business even in routine circumstances. When paired with a major systems outage, it becomes a safety concern.


The Ministry of Civil Aviation, sensing the seriousness of the matter, acted quickly. Rammohan Naidu, the aviation minister, ordered a full root-cause analysis and asked the AAI to deploy additional backup servers. He also instructed the agency to accelerate its long-delayed shift from AMSS to a newer Air Traffic Services Message Handling System (AMHS), which provides automatic failover between servers and is designed to better withstand disruptions. A joint team comprising the ministry, the AAI and the Electronics Corporation of India Ltd (ECIL) has been tasked with monitoring system performance and ensuring that safeguards are strengthened.


Yet it is the involvement of the National Security Adviser’s Office headed by Ajit Doval that underscores the gravity of the incident. Spoofing is not merely a technical malfunction but often a sign of hostile probing, either by criminal groups seeking to misroute cargo or by state-linked actors testing vulnerabilities. India cannot afford laxity in an era when GPS interference has been reported near conflict zones in the Middle East, the Black Sea and parts of East Asia. Some European airports have also recorded rising incidents of GPS spoofing believed to emanate from electronic warfare activity.


High risk

The Delhi episode suggests that India’s aviation infrastructure remains highly exposed. The country’s growing reliance on satellite navigation without equally robust layers of redundancy invites trouble. Modernising ATC systems, installing hardened navigation equipment, training controllers in spoofing-response protocols and conducting periodic cybersecurity drills are no longer optional. They are core requirements of a resilient aviation network.


Aviation history is littered with reminders that most disasters stem not from a single failure but from cascading ones. India was lucky this time as no lives were endangered. But the system’s veneer of reliability was exposed as far thinner than assumed.


The aviation world has long been guided by the words attributed to Captain Alfred ‘Lamps’ Lamplugh: “Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect.” Delhi’s recent troubles offer India a chance to heed that warning.


(The author is a retired Naval Aviation Officer and a defence and geopolitical analyst. Views personal.)

 


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