The Blue Dragon of the South China Sea

This month, when Taiwan marked its 113th National Day, hundreds of Chinese aircraft and monstrous warships aggressively encircled the tiny island to warn against its independence. Chinese aggression has indeed become a matter of daily occurrence in the South China Sea (the SCS), and so have the military drills by the United States and allies against China’s “Blue Dragon” policy.

The sea, ringed by China, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries, is boiling over overlapping territorial claims and access to marine resources. Rich in oil and gas, the disputed waters apparently contain significant deposits of hydrocarbons that could potentially reduce the region’s oil-import dependency. Considering the economic and strategic significance of the region, China released its new map with a 10-dash line covering nearly the entire SCS. This latest version of the Chinese map depicts the Blue Dragon’s desire to swallow the immense wealth on, in and under the South China waters.

The SCS is the corridor of high-net-worth maritime trade through which trillion dollars flow back and forth. Almost one-third of global shipping transits through this channel, which makes it critically important not only for surrounding entities but also for non-geographic states. Over 55 per cent of India’s trade passes through the same route, so even our economic security is tied to the South China region. By conquering the SCS, China could potentially choke off energy and commodities trade, leading to higher shipment costs, global market disruption, and severe economic and geopolitical volatility.

China’s expansive maritime claims are inconsistent with International law. And so, China interprets foreign law in a manner that suits best its interests and legitimises its aggression in the region using lawfare tactics.

In May, China spelled out a new rule that empowers its coast guards to detain any foreign vessel or individual suspected of violating the law in waters within Chinese jurisdiction for up to 60 days without trial. This new rule is as vague as it sounds; neither does it specify the waters within Chinese jurisdiction nor define foreign vessels. With this new rule, China has once again pursued its old policy of deliberate ambiguity to control the region. This is the lawfare to give a free hand to Chinese coast guards to use force against any vessel, be it a fishing boat, commercial or foreign state-owned navy, or even an aircraft. China’s new Coast Guard law and other domestic legislation can curtail the freedom of navigation, overflight, and scientific exploration of the SCS. It is an apparent effort by China to give a legal framework to its maritime aggression and deny the right to “innocent passage” to any foreign ship. A mere suspicion would suffice for Chinese maritime police to detain any vessel. It encourages frequent military drills and continuous patrolling by China in disputed waters, which could lead to profound global consequences.

Over the past 20 years, China has been dredging the SCS and raising islands. These artificial islands are developed further into forward operating bases equipped with surveillance radars, missiles, and advanced naval and aerial capabilities for future offensive-defensive operations. These new floating military bases are now part of China’s advanced Anti-Access/ Area-Denial (A2/AD) network designed to deter, detect, delay enemy entry, and defend Chinese land. It looks as if China is raising a new Great Wall of China in the South China Sea. The advanced Chinese patrolling ships are deliberately designed to ram foreign vessels. These ships conduct intrusive patrolling in neighbouring states’ oil and gas facilities. At times, they use water cannons against foreign fishing vessels. China is consciously letting its Seahawks loose on all and sundry. With this “Salami Slicing Strategy”, China is gaining effective control of the SCS.

Advanced military technologies such as Unmanned Water Vehicles are now deployed by China for covert surveillance and data collection in the Indian Ocean, further down near Africa and polar regions. This advancement has made deep, dark oceans transparent to China.

A lack of preparedness and fear of war has trapped the weak neighbouring countries in a loop of inaction. China’s latest anti-sanctions provisions have hollowed out international law. The new law is a silent weapon for quiet wars. The US silence, aka “smart diplomacy” on China’s island-building frenzy and coercive strategies, has further emboldened China to expand its engagement in the East China Sea and Indian Ocean, challenging the interests of more and more countries like Japan and India.

With these coercive strategies and tactics, the Blue Dragon is spreading its wings, and the conquests of the seas can soon realize its middle kingdom dream. It is high time the countries adopt effective strategies for hemming in China’s expansionism or taming the Blue Dragon of the South China Sea.

(The author is a foreign affairs expert. Views personal.)