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By:

Abhijit Mulye

21 August 2024 at 11:29:11 am

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj...

The Unequal Cousins

Raj Thackeray’s ‘sacrifice’ saved Shiv Sena (UBT) but sank the MNS Mumbai: In the volatile theatre of Maharashtra politics, the long-awaited reunion of the Thackeray cousins on the campaign trail was supposed to be the masterstroke that reclaimed Mumbai. The results of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, however, tell a story of tragic asymmetry. While the alliance has successfully helped the Shiv Sena (UBT) stem the saffron tide and regain lost ground, it has left Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) staring at an existential crisis. The final tally reveals a brutal reality for the MNS - Raj Thackeray played the role of the savior for his cousin, but in the process, he may have become the sole loser of the 2026 mandate. The worse part is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is reluctant to accept this and is blaming Raj for the poor performance of his party leading to the defeat. A granular analysis of the ward-wise voting patterns exposes the fundamental flaw in this tactical alliance. The vote transfer, the holy grail of any coalition, operated strictly on a one-way street. Data suggests that the traditional MNS voter—often young, aggressive, and driven by regional pride—heeded Raj Thackeray’s call and transferred their votes to Shiv Sena (UBT) candidates in wards where the MNS did not contest. This consolidation was critical in helping the UBT hold its fortresses against the BJP's "Infra Man" juggernaut. However, the favor was not returned. In seats allocated to the MNS, the traditional Shiv Sena (UBT) voter appeared hesitant to back the "Engine" (MNS symbol). Whether due to lingering historical bitterness or a lack of instructions from the local UBT leadership, the "Torch" (UBT symbol) voters did not gravitate toward Raj’s candidates. The result? The UBT survived, while the MNS candidates were left stranded. ‘Second Fiddle’ Perhaps the most poignant aspect of this election was the shift in the personal dynamic between the Thackeray brothers. Decades ago, they parted ways over a bitter dispute regarding who would control the party helm. Raj, refusing to work under Uddhav, formed the MNS to chart his own path. Yet, in 2026, the wheel seems to have come full circle. By agreeing to contest a considerably lower number of seats and focusing his energy on the broader alliance narrative, Raj Thackeray tacitly accepted the role of "second fiddle." It was a pragmatic gamble to save the "Thackeray" brand from total erasure by the BJP-Shinde combine. While the brand survived, it is Uddhav who holds the equity, while Raj has been left with the debt. Charisma as a Charity Throughout the campaign, Raj Thackeray’s rallies were, as always, electric. His fiery oratory and charismatic presence drew massive crowds, a sharp contrast to the more somber tone of the UBT leadership. Ironically, this charisma served as a force multiplier not for his own party, but for his cousin’s. Raj acted as the star campaigner who energised the anti-BJP vote bank. He successfully articulated the anger against the "Delhi-centric" politics he accuses the BJP of fostering. But when the dust settled, the seats were won by UBT candidates who rode the wave Raj helped create. The MNS chief provided the wind for the sails, but the ship that docked in the BMC was captained by Uddhav. ‘Marathi Asmita’ Stung by the results and the realisation of the unequal exchange, Raj Thackeray took to social media shortly after the counting concluded. In an emotive post, he avoided blaming the alliance partner but instead pivoted back to his ideological roots. Urging his followers to "stick to the issue of Marathi Manoos and Marathi Asmita (pride)," Raj signaled a retreat to the core identity politics that birthed the MNS. It was a somber appeal, stripped of the bravado of the campaign, hinting at a leader who knows he must now rebuild from the rubble. The 2026 BMC election will be remembered as the moment Raj Thackeray proved he could be a kingmaker, even if it meant crowning the rival he once despised. He provided the timely help that allowed the Shiv Sena (UBT) to live to fight another day. But in the ruthless arithmetic of democracy, where moral victories count for little, the MNS stands isolated—a party that gave everything to the alliance and received nothing in return. Ironically, there are people within the UBT who still don’t want to accept this and on the contrary blame Raj Thackeray for dismal performance of the MNS, which they argue, derailed the UBT arithmetic. They state that had the MNS performed any better, the results would have been much better for the UBT.

The Brewing Tempest: India’s Looming Multi-Front Challenge

India’s Looming Multi-Front Challenge

In the annals of India’s strategic concerns, the notion of a multi-front war has always loomed as a theoretical worst-case scenario. Today, it seems less theoretical and more a stark possibility. India now finds itself in a precarious position, navigating strained relations with China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while domestic turbulence threatens to undermine its internal stability. The prospect of a ‘three-and-a-half-front war’ has moved from the realm of policy seminars to the reality of national security briefings.


India’s immediate worry lies to the east, where its relationship with Bangladesh has taken a sharp and disconcerting turn. The August 2024 U.S.-backed ousting of Sheikh Hasina from power was a watershed moment. Using student protests as cover, a democratically elected government was replaced with one led by the Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus. While Yunus’s credentials may shine abroad, his ascent has sown discord at home and abroad. Sheikh Hasina, now in exile in India, remains a polarizing figure—a living symbol of a broken democratic covenant in Dhaka.


Under Yunus’s interim administration, Bangladesh has adopted policies that cut deeply into the ties that once bound the two nations. Trade restrictions have bruised Indian industries. Dhaka’s narrative, now laced with accusations of Indian interference, disregards India’s critical role in Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. To further exacerbate tensions, the new regime has demanded Hasina’s extradition, a move calculated to inflame bilateral relations.


Adding a troubling dimension to the equation is Bangladesh’s evolving military posture, supported by a trio of regional players—China, Pakistan, and Turkey. Beijing is readying supplies of advanced fighter jets and attack helicopters. Islamabad has offered training for Bangladeshi forces, while Ankara has provided drones and missile systems, with promises of more. These developments are no mere armoury upgrades but signal the creation of a strategically fortified Bangladesh, potentially aligned with adversarial forces.


But it is not just external threats that keep Indian strategists awake at night. The ‘half front’ is a vexing and amorphous challenge rooted in the nation’s domestic fissures.


India’s internal security apparatus faces mounting pressure from cross-border terrorism, much of it orchestrated by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Recent investigations into unrest in Manipur have revealed links to Arakan and Chin insurgent groups. Refugee influxes, particularly from Bangladesh, have brought with them not only humanitarian challenges but also security risks, with reports of terror plots linked to some of these migrants. Foreign-funded civil society organizations, while vital to democracies, have been accused of advancing anti-national agendas, channelling resources into protests, propaganda, and even electoral interference.


The economic dimension of the ‘half front’ is equally troubling. China’s economic encirclement of India has shifted from borders to boardrooms. By dumping cheap goods into the Indian market and leveraging opaque collaborations with domestic companies, Beijing continues to destabilize local industries. The $4 billion Chinese investment in Indian startups, once seen as a sign of bilateral economic integration, now appears as a potential Trojan horse.


On top of these challenges are the festering domestic grievances that simmer across India’s social and political landscape. From ethnic tensions and agrarian distress to religious discord and the proliferation of drugs, these issues create fertile ground for unrest.


So, how does India chart a course through this storm? The first step lies in diplomacy. India must recalibrate its foreign policy to counter the growing nexus of China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Strengthening ties with countries like Japan, Australia, and the United States will be crucial. Multilateral forums, such as the Quad, offer platforms for India to project influence and build strategic deterrence.


Modernizing the armed forces and intelligence apparatus is another urgent priority. While India’s military remains a formidable force, the threats it faces are evolving rapidly. Cybersecurity, unmanned systems, and artificial intelligence must take centre stage in defence planning. Border infrastructure, often overlooked in times of peace, must be bolstered to ensure rapid mobilization and supply chain resilience.


Domestically, the government must eradicate corruption in security, tackle root causes of unrest with equitable economic reforms, counter radicalization through education, and foster unity with targeted community outreach.


Civil society, too, has a role to play. Instead of vilifying these organizations wholesale, the government should work with credible groups to foster a sense of shared purpose and responsibility. A vigilant citizenry, armed with critical thinking and media literacy, can act as a bulwark against the tide of disinformation.


Finally, India must recognize the delicate balance between strength and restraint. To quote Sun Tzu from The Art of War: “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” The chaos India faces today is undeniable, but so, too, is the opportunity—to redefine its security paradigm, to reinvigorate its democratic institutions and reaffirm its role as a stabilizing force in a volatile region.


The stakes could not be higher. India’s ability to navigate this tempest will determine not only its own future but also the trajectory of an entire region. As history has shown, nations that weather their storms often emerge stronger, tempered by adversity and fortified by resolve. For India, the time to act is now.

(The author is a retired Indian Naval Aviation Officer and a geo-political analyst. Views Personal.)

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